Download: Medium and long-term hydrocarbon price development prospects

Information report made on behalf of the Senate delegation for planning on the prospects for the evolution of the price of hydrocarbons in the medium and long term.

By MM. Joseph KERGUERIS and Claude SAUNIER, Senators.


Meeting last June 22 under the chairmanship of Mr. Joel Bourdin, President, the Parliamentary Delegation for the Planning of the Senate entrusted to your two rapporteurs a study on the evolution of oil prices in the medium term.

At that time, a barrel of crude traded at 55 dollars and the press commented weekly on its movements up and down.

The objective of this study was threefold.

First, it was necessary to distance oneself from this media turmoil in order to analyze in depth the mechanisms of setting oil prices and to understand the reasons for this increase. Indeed, while newspapers and magazines have largely seized on this theme, the analysis proposed is often partial and does not allow to compare different points of view to form an opinion. Parliament can only act effectively if it is well informed.

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In addition, faced with the multiplication of statements as varied as contradictory on the evolution of oil prices, this study was to clarify the debate through the analysis of the assumptions on which the various estimates are based and to elaborate its own projections.

Finally, the purpose of this study was to measure the impact of rising oil prices on the global economy: between 2003 and 2005, prices were multiplied by 2,2. It is therefore a new oil shock, even if it differs from the first two on many points.

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