Pandemic Coronavirus COVID-19: maps, statistics, analyzes and day-to-day information

[jam]

Of course, knowing the number of positives would be useful to assess the possible evolution of the contamination.

That said for the rest you did not break the nénette you simply took the scores of the cases proven at time T listed by John Hopkins University and you arbitrarily carry them over a number of deaths in 2 weeks.

I think you are in the midst of delirium
And I put a favorite on this post ... to find it in 15 days

For the US, for example, in 15 days I don't think we will exceed 50 deaths, or 000 times less than your forecast.
To access the 50 you need an average daily rate of 000 deaths
To access the 300 would require an average daily rate of 000 deaths per day ...
Today we are on an average daily rhythm of just over 1000 deaths per day ...

And for France to access 89 deaths, the daily rate would have to be 953 deaths per day
Today we are at a rate of 1000 deaths per day ... so we are still very far from the account

See you in 15 days.

To be continued

I would like to be in full delirium! But I don't think so.
"average daily rhythm" does not apply in a geometric progression, which is the case here.

We should be careful that the Chinese anomaly does not spread everywhere. The number of deaths does not follow the rhythm of infected cases at all. There are suspicions of camouflaging the number of deaths or that unfortunately they could not go to all corners of Huwei province to recover the dead.

[Adrien (ex-nico239)]

Of course, knowing the number of positives would be useful to assess the possible evolution of the contamination.

That said for the rest you did not break the nénette you simply took the scores of the cases proven at time T listed by John Hopkins University and you arbitrarily carry them over a number of deaths in 2 weeks.

I think you are in the midst of delirium
And I put a favorite on this post ... to find it in 15 days

For the US, for example, in 15 days I don't think we will exceed 50 deaths, or 000 times less than your forecast.
To access the 50 you need an average daily rate of 000 deaths
To access the 300 would require an average daily rate of 000 deaths per day ...
Today we are on an average daily rhythm of just over 1000 deaths per day ...

And for France to access 89 deaths, the daily rate would have to be 953 deaths per day
Today we are at a rate of 1000 deaths per day ... so we are still very far from the account

See you in 15 days.

To be continued

I would like to be in full delirium! But I don't think so.
"average daily rhythm" does not apply in a geometric progression, which is the case here.

We should be careful that the Chinese anomaly does not spread everywhere. The number of deaths does not follow the rhythm of infected cases at all. There are suspicions of camouflaging the number of deaths or that unfortunately they could not go to all corners of Huwei province to recover the dead.

You know it will be seen very quickly
If tomorrow for France we go to 5562 dead
And for the USA with 19 dead ....

Because if this is not the case and to keep up the pace it would be necessary if the rhythms are normal tomorrow, go AFTER TOMORROW
- in France, at a rate of 5800 deaths per day (and no longer 5562) for 14 days.
- in the USA, at a rate of 20 deaths per day (and no longer 774) for 19 days.

And so on with the endorsement

[Christophe]

I do not know if this figure has already fallen here: there would have been 60 dead, at least, in China: https://www.ouest-france.fr/sante/virus ... ts-6800383

For Marie Holzman, President of Solidarity China, the information that filters by the diaspora tells us not about 3 dead, but about 000. The government has done the trick to hide the reality of the scale of the tragedy. I feel this as something unbearable. Because from the end of November, beginning of December there were the first cases. It is the alarm launched by eight doctors which makes it possible to date the beginning of the epidemic.

[jam]

I do not know if this figure has already fallen here: there would have been 60 dead, at least, in China: https://www.ouest-france.fr/sante/virus ... ts-6800383

For Marie Holzman, President of Solidarity China, the information that filters by the diaspora tells us not about 3 dead, but about 000. The government has done the trick to hide the reality of the scale of the tragedy. I feel this as something unbearable. Because from the end of November, beginning of December there were the first cases. It is the alarm launched by eight doctors which makes it possible to date the beginning of the epidemic.

This could explain the anomaly.

Spain, Italy and Germany have successfully linearized the infection curve. This is not at all the case for the USA, France and Iran. The number of deaths will be lower for the countries which have linearised the curve.

The case of China is interesting by the speed with which they were able to flatten the curve. With drastic measures, in 6 short weeks, the geometric progression stopped and in a short time all progression too.

And a little reminder:


* When I count 10, 20, 30… I add 10 each time: this sequence of numbers is in arithmetic progression.
* When I count 10, 100, 1000, 10 000… I multiply by 10: this sequence of numbers is in geometric progression. The multiplication factor (here 10) is called the reason for this progression.


In the case of COVID19, the "reason" is 2 or so every 2 days.

[Christophe]

Except that, Jam, your reasoning does not hold: it does not take into account the hacking of figures at all ... In China but elsewhere too ...

What would BE interesting, however, is the comparison of slopes ... from one country to another .... IF ALL COUNTRIES HAD THE SAME COUNTING METHODS ... as it is not the case: move around there is nothing to see!

In short all this is worth nothing at all! Or not much ...

The only thing that can be analyzed is the progression of the curve of the same country ... and still it is necessary that the methods of diagnosis and counting are constant throughout the crisis within the same country. .Bref it's not guaranteed at all !!

[Adrien (ex-nico239)]

Figures for April 5 in France

24/1 to 18/2 - 11 proven cases
March 4 - 285 proven cases - 4 deaths *
March 5 - 423 proven cases (+138) - 5 deaths (+1)
March 6 - 613 proven cases (+190) - 9 deaths (+4)
March 7 - 949 proven cases (+ 336) - 11 deaths (+2)
March 8 - 1126 proven cases (+ 177) - 19 deaths (+8)
March 9 - 1412 proven cases (+ 286) - 30 deaths (+ 11)
March 10 - 2 confirmed cases - 039 deaths (+ 44)
March 11 - 2281 proven cases (+ 242) - 48 deaths (+ 4)
March 12 - 2876 proven cases (+ 595) - 61 deaths (+ 13)
March 13 - 3 proven cases (+ 661) - 785 deaths (+ 79)
March 14 - 4 proven cases (+ 499) - 838 deaths (+ 91)
March 15 - 5 proven cases (+ 421) - 922 deaths (+ 161)
March 16 - 6 proven cases (+ 633) -
March 17 - 7 proven cases (+ 730) - 1 deaths
March 18 - 9 proven cases (+ 134) - 1 deaths (+ 404)
March 19 - 10995 proven cases (+ 1) - 861 deaths (+ 372)
March 20 - 12 proven cases (+ 612) - 1 deaths (+ 617)
March 21 - 14 proven cases (+ 559) - 1 deaths (+ 847)
March 22 - 16 proven cases (+ 018) - 1 deaths (+ 459) - 674 healings
March 23 - 19 proven cases (+ 856) - 3838 deaths (+ 860) - 186 healings (+ 2207)
March 24 - 22 proven cases (+ 302) - 2 deaths (+ 446) - 1 healings (+ 100)*
March 25 - 25 proven cases (+ 233) - 2 deaths (+ 931) - 1 healings (+ 331)
March 26 - 29 proven cases (+ 600) - 4 deaths (+ 367) - 1696 healings (+ 365)
March 27 - 33 proven cases (+ 414) - 3 deaths (+ 814) - 1 healings (+ 997)
March 28 - 38 proven cases (+ 105) - 4 deaths in hospital (new name which does not include deaths in nursing homes for example or at home) (+ 691) - 2 return to home (new name (+ 314)
March 29 - 40 proven cases (+ 704) - 2 deaths in hospital (+ 599) - 2 return home (+ 606)
March 30 - 44 proven cases (+ 169) - 3 deaths in hospital (+ 465) - 3 return home (+ 024)
March 31 - 52 confirmed cases (+ 827) - 8 deaths in hospital (+ 658) - 3 return home (+ 532)
April 1 - 57 confirmed cases (+ 749) - 4 deaths in hospital (+ 922) - 4 return home (+ 043)
April 2 - 59 confirmed cases (+ 929) - 2 deaths (hospital + EHPAD) (+ 180 and + 5 including 398 EHPAD) - 471 return home (+ 1)
April 3 - 65 confirmed cases (+ 202) - 5 deaths (+ 273) - 6 return home (+ 520)
April 4 - 90 confirmed cases (+ 842) - 25 deaths (+ 640) - 7 return home (+ 574)
April 5 - 90 proven cases (+ 869) - 27 deaths (+ 8) - 078 return home (+ 504)

In bold the days of doubling the number of deaths based on March 4.

France
The rate of deaths has fallen by half and that of deaths in hospital stands at + 357


For information Germany 100 proven cases - 009 deaths - 1 healings
The USA 331 proven cases - 151 deaths - death from influenza in the US 9: 441 - 2019: 34 - 157: 2018 (source CDC)

As a reminder, the number of attributable influenza deaths in France: 2017: 16 - 000: 2018 - 14: 000


The curve of coronavirus deaths in France on April 5
As I did not find a graph which takes into account all the deaths I made it myself

2020-04-05_225554.jpg (151.02 KIO) Accessed 1634 times

[lilian07]

The curve on which it is interesting to argue is the number of people in intensive care. From this moment the mortality rate is very dependent on the effectiveness of the health system and the measures taken (effectiveness of the barrier measures, the means implemented and also to a certain extent the effectiveness of the treatments without interpretation of charlatant).
There is also aggressiveness of the virus which is underlying resuscitation. The other curves and geometric progression do not really have a constant mathematical term (reason and other parameter of geometric progression).
For my part, I think that the figures for influenza mortality are good, but compared to COVID 19, the stats are reliable and standardized, leaving few patients unaccounted for. Another point, the mortality from seasonal flu affects a lot of people at the very end of their lives (this is an increase in mortality in winter)
In the EPHAD, the caregivers pay attention to the seasonal flu and resort to mass vaccination.
COVID 19 affects a younger age group, it is more contagious, more deadly and has no medical response to date, no one has a miracle cure and very clever one who will see a method of emerging from the crisis .

[jam]

Good news, there are only about 70 days left before the pandemic ends. This is a maximum because all of humanity would be infected at the present rate.

[Leo Maximus]

Japan reopens schools:

Back to scholl.jpg (32.24 KiB) Viewed 1585 times

But declares a state of health emergency from this Wednesday.



Despite the “Diamond Princess” episode in February, the country has been pretty well spared so far. But it looks like the "second wave" is definitely coming.

[Leo Maximus]

Good job ! Well done !

I also started a graph on Excel in February and I arrived at 1,5 million deaths around April 20!