by Did67 » 30/08/14, 14:57
In the newspaper Le Monde today:
Fukushima disaster more expensive than expected
The Monde.fr | 30.08.2014 to 10h57 • Updated 30.08.2014 to 11h38 |
By Philippe Mesmer (Tokyo, correspondence)
How much will have cost the Fukushima nuclear disaster? Twice as expected, according to Kenichi Oshima of Ritsumeikan University (Kyoto) and Masafumi Yokemoto of Osaka University. According to the calculations unveiled August 27 by these specialists in the economy and environmental policies, the bill of this drama started in March 2011 and whose resolution must officially take forty years will exceed the 11 000 billion yen (81 billion euros ). The official estimate of the government made in December 2011 is 5 800 billion yen (42 billion euros).
Professor Oshima - a former member of the government's Renewable Energy and Energy Advisory Committee - and his colleague do not question official calculations. They take them back by adding indirect costs, estimated according to data from different administrations and the Tokyo Electricity Company (TEPCO, responsible for the damaged plant).
DECONTAMINATION AND REMEDIES
According to them, the work needed to adapt the reactors to the new safety standards, set in July 2013 inspired by the Fukushima disaster, should cost nearly 2 200 billion yen (15 billion euros). The decontamination of 2 400 km² - almost the size of Luxembourg - from polluted areas to radioactive substances would amount to 2 480 billion yen (18 billion euros). A sum supplemented by 1 060 billion yen (7,7 billion euros) for the temporary storage of waste generated by this decontamination.
To this could be added 2 170 billion yen (15,8 billion euros) to dismantle the stricken power plant, as well as 4 910 billion yen (35,7 billion euros) to compensate the victims and people who lost their jobs in cause of the disaster ,.
Professor Oshima also emphasizes that his estimate is a minimum because the costs should increase further. The increase would be due to the treatment of the radioactive elements produced by the dismantling of the damaged reactors and to the evolution of the compensations. On this last point, no financial limit has been set.
For these offsets, Tepco uses the money from a special fund created in September 2011, powered by the government and other power companies and will remain in place after the resolution of the Fukushima disaster. This fund saw its ceiling of available credits raised in December 2013 5 000 to 9 000 billion yen (36,4 to 65,6 billion). Tepco must repay the money used, granted in the form of interest-free loans.
NUCLEAR RELIEF
The company did not want to comment on Professor Oshima's study. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which deals in particular with the promotion of nuclear power but has officially lost control of safety after the Fukushima disaster, sees only a "study among others ".
The Japanese press has remained surprisingly silent on the announcements of the two researchers. Their work is unveiled as the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, backed by the main employers' federation, Keidanren, seeks to revive the nuclear reactors at a standstill. In April, the Abe administration made nuclear a "major building block of electricity generation". In 2015, the authorities will announce the share of the atom in the energy policy of Japan.
In July, the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (NRA) validated the Kyushu Electricity Company's safety criteria for the two reactors at its Sendai plant in the southwestern Kagoshima department. A first step that could result in a revival in the autumn, at the earliest and provided that the local authorities agree.
At the same time, the prospect of a sharp rise in exit costs from the disaster represents a new potential burden on the Japanese public finances. The archipelago's debt already exceeds 200% of GDP. But, as Professor Oshima recalls, "the costs of the accident will be borne by the population, by taxes or by paying electricity bills".
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