Energy bill of France and GDP

[moinsdewatt]

France's foreign trade: energy remains a drag

08 Fev 2013 Expansion

France's foreign trade deficit for 2012 fell by 7 billion euros to 67 billion against 74 billion in 2011. If we remove the energy bill, the deficit has even reduced almost halved from 29 to 15 billion euros.

But everything is in the "if". The energy bill has never been so high: it increases by 7 billion euros over the year, reaching 69 billion, more than the deficit itself.

The rise in the bill follows exactly the rise in the price of a barrel of oil. The rate of the euro against the dollar, which has fallen since 2008, also plays a negative role, transactions being carried out in dollars.

In ten years, France's energy bill has tripled ...

http://energie.lexpansion.com/prospecti ... -7690.html

[moinsdewatt]

Raymond Bonaterre has the good idea to take another look at the energy deficit:

France's energy balance drops by 5 billion at the end of July

The 15 September 2014

It is not a scoop, the French consume less, they pay in general and shared glee, their taxes, freshly reviewed and corrected by a bloated Administration, expensive and redistributive under the dumbfounded gaze of the political class, powerless to correct these drifts.

This impact, quite naturally has repercussions on the export balance of foreign trade which appears, according to Customs, cumulative over the last twelve months to the end of July 2014, in deficit of nearly 61 billion euros. Recall that this balance had reached a deficit of more than 74 billion at the end of 2011 while it was still in surplus in mid-2004, the period from which oil prices had suddenly revalued.

Indeed, this export balance of foreign trade is closely intertwined with that of imported energy products (TAB.) On which our country depends almost entirely due to the nature of the subsoils explored until then and the fierce political will of our elected officials especially not to change this state of affairs.

Decreasing crude oil imports, limited by the wobbly progress of refineries, imports of refined products limited by the stable consumption of road fuels announced by the UFIP, a drop in natural gas consumption due to a mild winter , a drop in the price of petroleum products due to the strength of the dollar here are the essential ingredients which contribute to the explanation of this welcome decrease in the value of our energy balance.

http://www.leblogenergie.com/2014/09/15 ... rettyPhoto

[Did67]

The comments are a little ouilla-ouilla:

- it doesn't matter whether we import the crude oil that we refine or the refined products, the consumption of petroleum craburants stabilizes and this is good news !!!

It is both the decrease in household consumption and the decline in economic activity ...

- stranger is the mention of the high dollar: this increases the bill in euros (the table is in euros), for the same quantity; a rise in the euro = fall in the dollar lowers the value of imports (expressed in euros; we have more dollars for less euros) and increases the price of our exports (expressed in dollars)

Interesting thing: the net surplus of electricity barely compensates, in value, for the net deficit in nitrogen fertilizer purchases !!! That is to say the energy cost of intensive farming!

[this does not include other fertilizers: potash, phosphates ... which are minerals]

[moinsdewatt]

The comments are a little ouilla-ouilla:

- it doesn't matter whether we import the crude oil that we refine or the refined products, the consumption of petroleum craburants stabilizes and this is good news !!!
...

better than that, for France consumption frankly decreases.

89 million t of petroleum products in 2001
75 million t of petroleum products in 2013

see here http://www.oleocene.org/phpBB3/viewtopi ... 43#p365243

[Did67]

Yes. Thank you for correcting me ...

It was pretty clear, even in the painting. My coffee had not yet acted enough !!!

[moinsdewatt]

Decrease in oil: savings of 15 billion euros for France in 2015

By Ludovic Dupin - Posted on February 03, 2015, Usine Nouvelle

In 2015, France could reduce the cost of its oil and gas imports by almost 30% compared to 2014. But it remains very dependent on producing countries.

With the drop in oil prices, the prices of which have been cut in half over the last six months to reach less than 50 dollars per barrel, many producing countries are looking gray as they calculate their budget balance on a higher price. This is the case of Iran, Nigeria, Russia, Algeria ...

On the other hand, for importing countries, it is a real breath of fresh air. According to data from the French Institute of Petroleum Energies New (Ifpen), the energy bill of France could decrease by 15 billion euros in 2015, considering that the barrel will remain on average at 60 dollars over the year.

Thus, the French energy bill (imports of oil and gas) should be around 40 billion euros in 2015, against 55 billion euros in 2014. Last year, France had already saved a lot thanks to lower prices in the second half. In 2013, the same bill reached 65 billion euros.

EFFECT ON GDP

With a bill of 40 billion euros, France finds itself in the situation of 2009 (39,8 billion euros) which had been marked by the terrible global economic slowdown. However, it remains far from the end of the 90s and the beginning of the 2000s when, thanks to very low oil prices, the energy bill was between 10 and 20 billion dollars. With these savings, France can count on GDP growth of 0,7%. The same positive effects are found in all the major importing countries such as Japan, which could gain 1,6% of GDP or China (+ 0,7%).

The improvement in the French energy bill should not, however, mask the fact that the country continues to be overwhelmingly dependent on producing countries. France imports more than 98% of the gas and oil it consumes each year. In the energy transition law, the country is expected to initiate a reduction in its consumption of fossil fuels by 30% by 2030.

http://www.usinenouvelle.com/editorial/ ... 15.N311345

[moinsdewatt]

Energy bill alleviates 2015 trade deficit

5th February 2016

France’s trade balance recorded its lowest deficit since 2009 thanks to the fall in oil prices, which greatly reduced the energy bill, and the depreciation of the euro vis-à-vis the dollar, according to data released Friday by customs.

The annual deficit fell to 45,7 billion, against 58,3 billion a year earlier. It posted its fourth consecutive decline since the peak of 74,5 billion hit in 2011.
..................

http://fr.reuters.com/article/topNews/idFRKCN0VE0MF

[Christophe]

€ 160 per French person saved in 2015 thanks to the fall in oil prices: energies-fossil-nuclear / the-savings-related-to-the-drop-of-oil-in-2015-160-by-french-t14616.html

[Ahmed]

In a message at the beginning, it is explained that the sudden rise in oil prices in 1973 ("oil shock") had signed the decline of the French economy, which seems to me perfectly abusive, we can bet that the current fall in prices does not “will not relaunch growth” (according to the formula): this will allow this factor to be put into perspective and will encourage (perhaps? I have serious doubts ...) to orient the analysis according to other more relevant patterns.

[moinsdewatt]

Oil: what are the risks linked to the increase in the cost of a barrel?
One of the consequences of the United States' exit from the Iranian nuclear deal is that oil prices will rise. Could French growth suffer?

Soaring oil prices are impacting many industries. This results in more expensive kerosene in planes, a more expensive raw material in plastics, chemicals or even for the manufacture of tires. Whole swathes of the economy scrutinize this curve every day. The barrel of crude has now risen to 80 dollars.

Cascading repercussions on the economy

This development is of particular concern to road hauliers, who pass this cost on to their customers. This cascading impact trickles down across the economy. "If we have an increase of 20 dollars per barrel from one year to another, that will have an impact of 0,2 point of GDP. That is to say that instead of having 2% growth , for example, we could have 1,8% growth for the year 2018 ", comments Céline Antonin, OFCE economist. According to some economists, if the price of oil is rising, it is also because global demand is strong, which is also a sign of a more favorable economic outlook.

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/au ... 57305.html