Google: the end of the golden age? The market is worried
Google experienced a first decline in the use of its sponsored links in January, which some analysts interpreted as the beginning of the end of the period of extraordinary growth in advertising revenue for the internet group.
The number of internet users who clicked on paid banners during an internet search on Google fell in January by 0,3%, according to the firm Comscore, whose studies refer to the internet sector.
In December, that number was up 13%, and even 25% over the entire fourth quarter of 2007.
For the undisputed leader in internet research and online advertising, this sharp deceleration contrasts with the 15% increase recorded by its dolphin Yahoo!! Microsoft, number three, was down 9%.
The brokerage house William Bair & Company deemed the data "disturbing".
The Comscore study, released before the close of the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, closed Google stock down 4%. The decline continued on Tuesday, to 7% in session. Google finally closed down 4,57% to 464,19 dollars, which brings the decline of the action to more than 32% since the beginning of the year.
Such a development is unusual for Google, which has accustomed the market to cross symbolic heights, from the 100 dollars on its first trading day in August 2004, to the 600 and 700 dollars crossed in October 2007 alone. .
The emotion of the market was all the stronger since Google did not seek to explain this data.
"This means that Wall Street estimates may well have to be revised downward if the January trend persists," said Jefferies analysts.
"The problem is that Google is valued for its strong growth year after year, which has kept the action at a high level," said Rob Enderle, of the eponymous firm, interviewed by AFP. "Any reduction in the growth rate is going to have a catastrophic effect," he forecasts, while noting that it was difficult to extrapolate from a monthly figure.
Other analysts put the impact of the Comscore study into perspective.
"Investors give a lot of weight to the figures released by Comscore given the current concerns about a recession in the United States, knowing that Google does not deliver forecasts and that there are few barometers during the quarter on internet traffic" , according to an analyst note from Thomas Wiesel Partners.
"The fear of investors is disproportionate, adds Jordan Rohan of RBC Capital Markets. "As the market focuses only on volumes, the improvement in research revenue could well offset the drop in volume".
"The drop in paid clicks probably reflects Google's decision to improve the quality of its network"- its sites and those of its partners, grouped in particular under the AdSense service - adds Marianne Wolk, analyst at Susquehanna.
"Google is gradually eliminating trash clicks from its network", she explains, namely unprofitable banners and accidental clicks on banners placed too close to a hyperlinked word.
source: http://www.boursorama.com/infos/actuali ... ws=5197265
