Oil quotation excluding Dollars: should we save the USA, Iran or the world?

[krissg29]

So if I understood correctly:

on the one hand:
Iran sells its oil in Euros, which causes the devaluation of the dollar and the ruin in the more or less long term of the USA. This can be relaxed by gradually switching the Dollar / Euro to let the USA adapt to the change. That is to say an economic war where the losers would be those who have a lot of dollars (wealthy Americans?)

on the other side:
not to mention terrorists, Iran has a fairly competitive conventional army and is considering nuclear weapons (practical pretext). What makes that a country which would attack it in a traditional way "will leave feathers". Resorting to nuclear weapons would be easier and profitable: in addition to razing the country and a possible response, it will contaminate the country for more or less long. This would raise the price of oil (in dollars) for some time (Iran is the 2nd world reserve), and when the radioactivity will have decreased, the Iranian reserves (managed by the country or countries victorious of the war) will be again accessible at a time when other world reserves will have declined sharply.

I hope that the 2nd scenario is only an effect of my imagination

[jean63]

worrying .................it's the least we can say.

I think I'll read Pétillon's comic strip on the veil to lighten the mood

[freddau]

Here is a response that I was given on the website of Le Monde:

Hyper inflation in the US, mega deflation in Europe.

Basically as the US can print USD, as long as "the world" gives them goods / goods in exchange, everything is fine.
The US imports goods, prints dollars (whose value remains roughly stable), and the rest of the world produces (hence the theme of empire in the article), all happy to have a consumer. It is a bit like the producer who is happy to sell more and more goods on credit to maintain his turnover, without really being sure that his client is solvent ... But let's not exaggerate either!

Pb:
if the world no longer accepts dollars (or wants a lot more) for the same amount of goods?

Either the US dramatically raises interest rates to attract dollars (and brings its economy to its knees, not very credible); either they do nothing and the dollar collapses (against the Euro and the Yen / RMB) and this creates (hyper) inflation in the US, a mega recession elsewhere with the massive appreciation of other currencies.
Frankly this is not really new ...
The famous phrase: "The dollar is our currency and your problem", is not new.

In fact, the US ... and the rest are losing, that's probably why the fall in the dollar announced for so long has not happened or will be gradual. Especially since the differences in growth make the US attract capital faster than the Euro zone or the Yen.

Conspiracy theories may be going well, but the reality (at least for now) may also be:
yes the dollar is overvalued, but the euro is so handicapped by a directed economy, that despite all these bps, the value of the dollar is maintained.
In fact it is the "social" economies with low growth rates in Europe which support the value of the dollar!

[Christophe]

I deeply regret that the engineer course that I followed did not include notions of (global) economics .. or so little ... which means that I have many gaps to comment / criticize the latter message...

It remains for me to immerse myself in books of economists ...

[gegyx]

I think I'll read Pétillon's comic strip on the veil to lighten the mood

I just read it (offered today for my birthday). It is a soft Pétillon, which wanted to spare the goat and the cabbage, while reporting only anecdotal behaviors, on the intransigence of the radicals vis-a-vis the moderates. The author spoke about it last week, and said he had asked for the agreement of the official representatives of Muslims in France.
In short, it was not this book that set the powder on fire.

[nlc]

In fact the problem can be summarized in a fairly simple way if I understand correctly:

Currently, all oil sellers get paid in dollars.
So everyone has to have large amounts of dollars in their boxes to buy oil.

If the oil sellers start to accept the euros, it is very adventurous because it avoids changing euros into dollars to pay (and therefore lose on the exchange?).

As a result, all buyers will no longer need dollars and will want to get rid of them. And I imagine it's like on the stock market, when everyone wants to get rid of something, it loses its value ...

On top of that, a way to get rid of dollars would be, for example, to exchange it for the amount of gold that it is supposed to represent, and which in theory should be in the coffers ... But for sure, there wouldn't be enough gold for everyone! The billboard turned a little too much

[Christophe]

That's it i understood

Thank you nlc!

[Former Oceano]

The concern is that the dollar has no link with gold since Nixon.

The USA does not stop flooding the world with its currency to buy wealth that they keep at home. The central banks of the different countries which must have large stocks of $ for different banking operations actually have monkey money.

In short, if the euro goes as a bargaining chip, everything will crack, but the tangible wealth is in the USA, the others having gradually been looted in exchange for worthless paper money.

For those who want to know more see:

http://www.horizons-et-debats.ch/31/31_21.htm

[nlc]

Thank you ex-océano.
I don't know much about economics either, and I'm going to read it carefully!

[jean63]

Former oceano

thank you for this great article ....... with that we understood everything:

In summary, the 21st century begins on the razor's edge as well for the climate, as for the currency, as for the clash of civilizations ..... etc, but what will "kracker" in 1st

Predictions please .... we get out of the subject, it's true, but unfortunately everything comes together ..... if it were not the case, there would be less points to solve the dysfunctions on this planet