https://mailchi.mp/caa/global-warming-a ... looks-goodGlobal warming is accelerating because the warming trend, that is, the Earth's energy imbalance, has doubled over the last decade. Measuring acceleration is hampered by unforced tropical variability (El Niño/La Niña), but a good measuring stick is provided by the warming between successive major El Niños. The strengthening of the current El Niño (2023-24) has brought it to a level similar to that of the El Niños of 1997-98 and 2015-16. The first six months of the current El Niño are 0,39°C warmer than the same six months of the 2015-2016 El Niño, for a global warming rate of 0,49°C per decade, which corresponds to the expectation of a strong acceleration in global warming. We expect the 12-month average temperature by May 2024 to eliminate any doubt that global warming is accelerating. The subsequent 12-month temperature drop below 1,5°C is likely to be limited, confirming that the limit of 1,5°C has already been exceeded.
Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on GISS analysis.
Global temperature (relative to the 1880-1920 average for each month) for the 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24 El Niños. El Niño's impact on global temperature typically peaks early in the year (the peak El Niño year) following the year in which El Niño originated.