Adrien (ex-nico239) wrote:
... a good weather window can be misleading
A lot of things are delusional.
And already - for me, it is above all - conviction. As I mentioned in "What a con", you just need to be convinced for the barriers of doubt to break down - and we have seen how I "blinded" myself. If I had coldly thought, observed, analyzed, never would I have said bullshit to the point of having to say: "what a con:!"
Then, the remarkable ability of our brains to "tell stories" - I will come back in a video on Elisabeth Loftus' research.
And then, everything that revolves around hazards, "edge effects" ... Which means that normally, we make random distributions of repeated test squares, and that we do heavy statistical processing to find out if this 'is significant (generally at the 95% level).
It is extremely difficult. You can check them all. Take a die. Roll 60 times. Theoretically, you will have 10 times each face. In reality, you will have, I write anything (make a series):
13 times on 1
9 times on 2
11 times on 3
12 times on 4
7 times on 5
8 times on 6
You could, with these noisy figures, deduce from it that the 1 is much more "productive" than the 5 ... Only a calculation of the variance, taking into account the degree of freedom, will make it possible to affirm that this die is rigged or no (95% or 99%).
It's the same in your vegetable garden.
Variety A gives 12,3 kg. Variety B gives 15,2. You inevitably deduce that B is greater than A. In fact, you don't know! B could just be the "1" from the above draw and A the "5"!
The difficulty with the lunar cycle is that it is absolutely impossible to do a "test", all other things being equal: it will not be the same day; and therefore many other parameters will have changed. When it comes to plants, they will have stayed in pots longer. It will have rained or, on the contrary, the weather is fine. Nitrification will have been initiated - or delayed ... etc ...
My wife started to realize that it's not that simple: the other day, which was the right day for onions, she was working ... So it was racing ... Two days later, she was at rest, it would have been easy ... It hadn't rained!
[What do you mean, I didn't help? But if ! I helped her "pass" her test by doing nothing for her - so that she also suffered the inconvenience of the system; if ever she doesn't produce more than me, two years like that to piss off and she'll quit on her own!]