Between dreams and realities in Germany

[izentrop]

Mac Lesggy is right.

He should also add that the French idiots willingly import the German GW among the most carbon-intensive when the nuclear power plant is in dire straits...

It's ancient history...

[Remundo]

a nice joke which is limited to the month of May...

I'm waiting for the graph at nighttime winter peak when our nuke power plants are in decanter...

[sicetaitsimple]

a nice joke which is limited to the month of May...

Indeed, a single day cannot be representative of what happens over 365 days 24/24.
And it has time to evolve in the years to come, in one direction or the other.

[izentrop]

a nice joke which is limited to the month of May...

No no...
https://gemenergyanalytics.substack.com ... exports-in

[sicetaitsimple]

What we can clearly see on this graph is the effect of the closure of the last 4 GW of German nuclear power in mid-April.

[izentrop]

When we need it most...

[izentrop]

Hey, the “X” links no longer work.
Janco sets the record straight...

[Leo Maximus]

Janco, very good, but he is often off the mark.

- Nuclear power has ruined Japanese fishermen while their fish are far below Japanese standards. These standards are much stricter than European standards (100 bq/kg in Japan compared to 600 Bq/kg in the EU). Japanese fish is not at all radioactive but it is unsaleable and unexportable.
We experienced the same problem in France following an incident at the Tricastin power plant. The “Coteaux du Tricastin” wine had become unsaleable. The bottles were removed from the shelves even when the wine had been produced before the incident...

- He still insists on copper while the use of aluminum will become widespread. For equal mass, aluminum is a much better conductor than copper, it is much cheaper than copper and there is no need for mines, aluminum is waste, there are plenty of it in the trash.
Manufacturers who only swear by copper will go bankrupt.

Etc ...

Always interesting Janco but always one metro late!

[NCSH]

While Europe is going through a period of extreme cold, the French media do not seem worried about the electricity supply, unlike the previous winter.
Last week's news contained some allusions to the fact that Spain and Germany had passed the 50% renewable electricity mark...
But they should have emphasized that it was 40% of intermittent sources in Germany, without the slightest incident having been highlighted, thus contradicting all the fantasies of "threshold limit not to be exceeded"...
As could be expected in this period of intensive propaganda in France to obtain the relaunch of nuclear power, we can therefore only qualify this minimalist information as "minimum service" ...


Because many things could be said on this type of subject.
Especially, contrary to the tireless media coverage since 2011 regarding the fact that the Germans would compensate for their reduction in nuclear production by an increase in the use of coal-lignite, the reality is very different.

This is not the case, here are the figures recorded using Energy Chart:

Year: 2010 / 2019 / 2020 / 2021 / 2022 / 2023

Natural Gas: 86.1 / 84.1 / 92.0 / 87.9 / 86.5 / 76.4
Coal: 107.4 / 52.1 / 38.7 /49.8 / 58.0 / 36.8
Lignite: 134.1 / 104.1 / 84.5 / 101.7 / 107.9 / 81.2

Total: 327.6 / 240.3 / 215.2 / 239.4 / 252.4 / 194.4


Despite a short period of decline in 2021 and 2022, the general trend is undeniably downward, a decline due to the Covid year then an exceptional year in 2022, followed in 2023 by a return to normal, with the addition of a carbon tax which rose to €80/t, favoring natural gas rather than coal.
Likewise in 2015, the drop in the cost of natural gas indexed to oil closed a favorable period for coal imported at lower cost from the USA: since 2012, shale gas increasingly replaced coal-fired power plants in the United States. USA.
It is therefore only a question of arbitration between these 3 sources of energy.

Since Fukushima, thousands of tireless gunslingers have been spreading and maintaining this rumor in the media and on social networks, a rumor that millions of brain zombies joyfully announce, some with consternation will recognize themselves in it...

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Another rumor, the cost of electricity will constantly increase so that Germany (the same in Denmark) can deploy its renewable electricity production.
It is not so : since 2013, slight increase from 29 to 31 c€/kWhe until 2020 ; since the beginning of 2023, capping at 40.
However, taking into account the fact that the average annual production cost increased to more than 80 €/MWhe in 2023, instead of 40 between 2013 and 2020, there is no reason to see this as a phenomenal increase.
These figures can be verified in the European annual reports called: “Energy Pocket Book”.
It therefore seems that the increase in the cost of electricity is plateauing, according to sigmoid logic.

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These rumors serve the nuclear cause, but we must also look into the rumors or aberrations of the other camp.
In this case the excessive promises of ecologists, both in Germany and at European level.

Thus, the government contract signed at the end of 2021 in Germany by the 3 parties (tricolor coalition) stated the objective of reaching 80% renewable electricity, from 2030, with if possible the abandonment of coal-lignite.

To do this, they would need to produce 540 TWhe of intermittent electricity, out of a total of 750.
However, in 2023, the figures have just fallen, it is 193 TWhe. In 7 years, it is obviously not possible to multiply such production by 3.
Even a doubling appears difficult to achieve.

Likewise, the 2030 objective of the European Parliament's RePower plan multiplies the crazy figures: reaching 42.5% of final energy from renewable sources, while we painfully reached 20% in 2020, reducing by 55% (since 1990 ) carbon emissions (fossil carbon), up to 600 GWp of photovoltaics, ...

2030 is almost tomorrow, we can already say that the figures that can be achieved will be more modest.
Besides, in industrial circles, no one believes it...

[sicetaitsimple]

This is not the case, here are the figures recorded using Energy Chart:

Year: 2010 / 2019 / 2020 / 2021 / 2022 / 2023

Natural Gas: 86.1 / 84.1 / 92.0 / 87.9 / 86.5 / 76.4
Coal: 107.4 / 52.1 / 38.7 /49.8 / 58.0 / 36.8
Lignite: 134.1 / 104.1 / 84.5 / 101.7 / 107.9 / 81.2

Total: 327.6 / 240.3 / 215.2 / 239.4 / 252.4 / 194.4

Yes, it would be foolish to deny Germany's track record in reducing its fossil fuel-based electricity production.
Nevertheless, at least in the 2022/2023 comparison, we can note a very strong reduction in Germany's export balance, which went from around 27TWh of exports to around 9TWh of imports. In short, German "fossil" is no longer really competitive, due to the increase in fuel costs and, as you point out, the high price of CO2 quotas.