Public debt: bankruptcy of Greece ... who's next?

[Remundo]

imagine that Greece outside the € zone with its cheap drachma becomes an exporting "small factory"? Do not forget the neighboring countries and the powers opposed to NATO ... Turkey, Russia, Chinese investors ...

[Leo Maximus]

Uh .... Turkey has been in NATO for a very long time ...

Greece is already an industrial country, small, but it is an industrial country.

China is already well established in Greece:

http://www.lesechos.fr/journal20150528/ ... 122977.php

http://www.latribune.fr/actualites/econ ... grece.html

It's a stir ...

[Remundo]

Turkey has American bases.

Europhiles do not know how to portray a void by talking about Grexit, it's far from obvious. It may be agreed that a Grexit will be difficult, but perhaps more for Europe than for Greece.

[Leo Maximus]

.... It may be agreed that a Grexit will nevertheless be difficult, but perhaps more for Europe than for Greece.

That's my opinion.

The Greeks will get by. Putin is already offering gas. The Chinese are well established, they bring in qualified people from Eastern countries, "Polish plumbers", what ...

And I bet Angela will produce low-cost German. By solidarity ...

[Did67]

I would be dissonant!

Greece is 2% of the European economy. Europe can do without it ...

The only risk, in classical, neo-liberal economics, which is the situation in Europe (other countries also have democratically elected governments; and, one can regret it, but it is like that: the "average" is rather liberal on the right!) it's contagion: no longer able to attack the euro via Greece, having no interest in speculating on a future insoluble Drachma, the financial markets will attack the following weak links: Portugal, Spain , Italy, France ...

Just take France: a rise in interest rates that would pass 2 and some current to say 7% and nothing else in our budget! In any case, the more the salaries of civil servants ...

The Euro goes from Great Britain, then Greece. You are laughing !!!


Greece, however, I repeat, will go through a spin phase next to which the adjustments of recent years were only rupee of a starling! Even if in the medium term (3 to 5 years), indeed, the recovery could be spectacular ... But must arrive there, in this medium term!

I would like a Grexit. Just to know...

This seems to me the most probable outcome today, as a certain number of "liberal right-wing" democracies are blocked ... Some have toasted hard to restructure ...

[Did67]

And conversely, remain in the Euro, it is a scheduled decrease in salaries and pensions of 10% annually for the next 10 years ...

Of course. But what is 10 or even 20% compared to 60 ???

I think that you do not want to pose the real diagnosis on the state of Greece: a country over-indebted (who lived above these means), in economic crisis, which can not cover today its current expenses !

The debt has already been partly erased two years ago. It is rescaled on I do not know how many years. Interest rates are nil ... And yet, the debt starts up again vertiginously = the country spends more than it harvests (excluding debt).

In your neighborhood, take a lambda neighbor. Unemployed. Beautiful house, pretty car, last Iphone. Overindebted. Recipe monthly 1000 euros. 800 Debt Repayment. Current expenditure 1100 euros ...

Are you going to lend him ???

[And quite unnoticed the fact that the primary surplus of Greece, after being stealthily positive has become negative again: excluding debt repayment, do not go into the boxes what is spent every month and the trend is negative!)

You have to put facts on the table. No feelings.

When your partner has cancer, of course you're moved. That you want help. Nevertheless, we must admit that a chemo is needed. No need to yell "Don't prick her, I don't like it! She's going to lose her hair ..."

Let's stop thinking that all the Greeks are cool. The people, it is also the big Greek pigs about which one speaks very little ...

[Gaston]

And conversely, remain in the Euro, it is a scheduled decrease in salaries and pensions of 10% annually for the next 10 years ...

Of course. But what is 10 or even 20% compared to 60 ???

10% annually for 10 years it is 66% in 10 years.

For the rest, I quite agree with your diagnosis, but I do not understand if you recommend a release of the euro or not

[Did67]

I do not advocate anything! In any case, I will not be asked my opinion.

I just say, if the euro comes out, there will be big damage in Greece, before the positive effects (maybe positive?), In the medium term, of a very devalued currency are not felt.

I also say that without adjustment, so indeed, a severe adjustment, I understand that we continue to lend to someone who would continue to live below proven means [I do not say that Greek pensioners live beyond their means; I say that the country has not put in place sufficient collection measures so that it can serve such pensions!]

[Gaston]

I just say, if the euro comes out, there will be big damage in Greece, before the positive effects (maybe positive?), In the medium term, of a very devalued currency are not felt.

And if maintenance in the euro, there will be big restrictions before a possible recovery ...

[Did67]

Yes.

And in this sense, in my opinion, the referendum was a lure!

Even though Tsipras now thinks he is strong and wants to negotiate, I do not think there will be unanimity in continuing to bail out Greece "to the bottom".

So either it is legitimate enough yes strong to impose even more rigor to the Greeks and an agreement is possible ... But ??????????????

Either he is not and he will be confronted with Grexit, which will be, in the 6 months, much much harder!

And he will be able to organize a new referendum: "are you for misery or against misery?". He will be able to obtain a score of 80%!

So it is "very, very painful when leaving the euro" against "a little less painful for longer by staying there".

The bottom line of the problem is that Greece structurally retains aspects that are known in underdeveloped countries: rich people who live very rich without worrying about the common good; poor people who have to cope with what they have, an errand or civil servant who brings a whole life to life ...

The retirement funded public funds [and not distributed according to the contributions that come in; therefore in a sustainable way - a basis of ecology!] and which manage to maintain entire families in a semblance of "modern comfort" are not financed sustainably ...

The economy becomes informal. More and more things are being paid in cash - so they are not funded by the system.

As some have said: it's becoming an area for low-cost tourism or industries looking for opportunities - before yesterday Taiwan, yesterday China, today Vietnam ... and tomorrow Greece ??? But indeed, for the Greeks, living like Vietnamese, it's a bit hard and unusual ... [except for the rich, you know my couplet: less state = rich richer; they will never miss anything, neither in China, nor in Vietnam, nor in Lagos ...]

From there it is the Bangladesh that is sailing the face!

Being in Europe is a lure. Or dope coke way - after each shoot, you're a little more destroyed! And at the end, the ditch!