Collapsology ... kezako?

[Ahmed]

The consumption as a direct coal is tending to decrease here and this dynamic will probably continue, but this will not necessarily be an orientation elsewhere, in countries where its use is already very significant.

[Remundo]

As said in the documentary we are not afraid enough, not aware enough to really react at the right level.

What to do ???

Individually, we can try to reduce our impact. But that's like emptying the ocean with a teaspoon.

From my point of view things are quite simple: fossils will continue to be heavily exploited. At the same time, renewable energies will develop, but not to the point of completely offsetting the use of fossils.

There will inevitably be a scarcity and increase in the price of fossils, at which point the energy mix will certainly not be self-sufficient in renewable energy. There will be a structural decline in the economy and the overall standard of living across the entire planet. But I don't think there will be a "collapse", there will be a moderate downward slope over several decades.

On the side of global warming, we continue frantically every day with our CO2 emissions. So the climate will take the trajectory it has to take. We have already signed for a bad contract and we are adding amendments making it worse. But it's because it gives comfort today to people who don't think enough about others and tomorrow. It is a fault deeply rooted in human nature and unavoidable. We are all caught up in this, including the noble souls who write about econology.

That the forumAnyone who never gets into a large vehicle, never goes to the supermarket, or uses any manufactured product, raise your hand...

[sicetaitsimple]

The consumption as a direct coal is tending to decrease here and this dynamic will probably continue, but this will not necessarily be an orientation elsewhere, in countries where its use is already very significant.

Yes, it is certain that there is inertia, particularly in countries which are themselves large producers of coal/lignite and which have built the infrastructures (mines, transport, power stations) which allow them to exploit this resource. In Europe, the example of Germany and Poland is obvious.
When we "sit" on a big pile of coal, we inevitably tend to want to use it....

[Remundo]

especially when there isn't enough gas!

[sicetaitsimple]

especially when there isn't enough gas!

Of course, but the phenomenon was visible well before the recent events linked to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

[Janic]

remondo

But I don't think there will be a "collapse", there will be a moderate downward slope over several decades.

Probably yes, probably no. In a slow and uniform process, it is possible, but if it accelerates as for a dam receiving an enormous mass of water linked to bad weather (currently the case of Libya) the dikes and dam explode and the water floods. everything without being able to be controlled and, unless you are a soothsayer or prophet, it is impossible to determine which scenario will be the right one!.

[Ahmed]

Everything does not come down to an evolution in terms of volumes and to consider that things can persist, but in "degraded" mode, is to forget that growth is obligatory in the present model. It is currently simulated quite widely by the financial industry, but this palliative cannot completely exempt from any concrete production. From this point of view, the production of arms which has been developing recently constitutes another solution to this impasse of abstract valorization: a generalized remilitarization would be likely to restore a new luster to an economy that the transition ecological industrial printing process economy is struggling to sustain. Of course, this will only be a new temporary artifice (sic!)...

[sicetaitsimple]

It's not all about an evolution in terms of volumes...

Of course, but the announcement by the IEA that by 2030 the global demand for gas, coal and oil should start to fall for each of the three products still tends to rejoice me!
But I'm certainly a good audience!

[Ahmed]

My message echoed that of Remundo cited by Janic and concerned not directly energy volumes, but the possible evolution of economic dynamics.

[sicetaitsimple]

My message echoed that of Remundo cited by Janic and concerned not directly energy volumes, but the possible evolution of economic dynamics.

Yes, I noted, but you know me, I'm quite basic....I tend to make a connection between energy volumes and economic dynamics.
But energy volumes can still evolve, albeit slowly, over the years, whether in quantity but above all, we hope, in quality.
I don't know if the IEA report will be publicly available in October, but its announcement seems interesting to me and that's why I passed it on.