The return of "King Coal"
published: 04/10/06, 18:17
The black gold of tomorrow is no longer oil but coal. This return to grace sounds like a revenge for the coal, abandoned in the second half of the 85th century in favor of oil. With the other rising energy that is gas, it will play an essential role. It is therefore fossil fuels that will secure our future and should represent 2050% of world demand in XNUMX, according to the trend scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Detailed review.
Oil. The third oil shock that the world has known since 2005, less brutal than those of 1973 and 1980, prompted hasty analyzes of the "end of oil". The CEO of the national company Saudi Aramco, Abdallah S. Jum'ah, is not of this opinion. "The world has consumed only 18% of its oil potential", he says, that is to say 1 trillion barrels out of total reserves of 000 5 billion constituted by the conventional crude already discovered and extractable (700 1 billion), the tar sands from Canada and heavy oils from Venezuela (200 trillion), improved oil recovery rates (1 billion) and future discoveries (500 billion). Sufficient reserves, in his eyes, to ensure "more than one hundred and forty years of consumption at the current rate" and "discredit" the arguments of those who announce an imminent decline in production (the famous peak oil).
These estimates "should not exempt us from thinking about the energy transition," warns the president of the French Petroleum Institute, Olivier Appert. These data are vigorously contested, notably by former petroleum geologists at Aspo (Association for the Study of the Peak Oil & Gas), who predict a decline in crude production over the next decade. The production figures are "manipulated" and those of the reserves "very political", summarizes Jean Laherrère, former technical director of exploration of Total and member of the ASPO. Technical data is a state secret (except in the United States, Great Britain and Norway), he adds.
What is certain is that the reserves are running out. Despite deposits as promising as those recently discovered in the Gulf of Mexico, proven reserves are increasing by only 1% per year (against 4,5% during the 1980s) and the barrels discovered since 1999 do not compensate than 45% of those that were consumed over this period.
The gas. It is in full development. Its consumption is expected to increase by 138% by 2050, most of it to power power plants, according to the IEA. Long split into regional markets (Asia, Europe, North America) due to pipeline transportation constraints, it is globalizing thanks to huge liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in Russia, Qatar and Iran (60% of reserves global). In 2030, more than half of gas trade will be in the form of LNG. But unlike coal, gas is concentrated in countries with strong "energy nationalism" (Venezuela, Russia, Bolivia, etc.).
The coal. It remains the "King Coal" in the world, despite CO2 emissions twice as high as those of gas. Between 1970 and 2004, demand increased by 110% (49% for oil). If nothing is done, it will triple by 2050, according to the IEA. And its reserves are colossal: BP estimates them at 910 billion tonnes, which promises 155 years of production - against about 45 years for oil and 60 years for gas, again according to BP - at the current rate. Another asset is that coal is everywhere, while a growing share of oil and gas is produced in politically unstable regions. "By cutting off gas to Ukraine and therefore to Europe, Putin has made an unexpected publicity for coal," notes an industrialist in the sector. It is less expensive to extract and 83% of its production is consumed in the country of extraction. As for the risk of pollution during its maritime transport, it is zero.
More than 40% of the world's electricity is produced from coal (20% from gas, and 16% from nuclear). "After the gas peak of the 1990s in the United States, coal is regaining the central place it had in the energy matrix", welcomes Philippe Joubert, CEO of Alstom Power. World leader in turbines for coal-fired power stations, it is now gaining orders, particularly in Asia. "In Europe, it is also a fuel that will develop, among other things because of the price of gas", adds the former president of Charbonnages de France, Philippe de Ladoucette, now president of the Regulatory Commission of energy (CRE).
BE PROFITABLE AND CLEAN
Provided it is profitable. Uncertainty weighs in fact on its competitive advantage in the event that the price of CO2 emission permits significantly increases its cost. And on condition of becoming clean. Because of all fossil fuels, it is the most harmful to health (mine accidents, silicosis, lung diseases). However, two thirds of the 1 GW of coal-based electrical capacity will be installed, by 400, in developing countries - whose plants emit 2030% more CO20 than plants in OECD countries.
"European industry can take technological leadership in capturing and storing CO2," indicates a recent report from the interministerial delegation for sustainable development, submitted to Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin. "It will be necessary to examine under what conditions to transfer this know-how to the poorest countries", noted recently John Browne, CEO of BP. Otherwise, he warned, "they will be doomed to meet their energy needs by resorting to old dirty technologies."
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0 ... 431,0.html
Oil. The third oil shock that the world has known since 2005, less brutal than those of 1973 and 1980, prompted hasty analyzes of the "end of oil". The CEO of the national company Saudi Aramco, Abdallah S. Jum'ah, is not of this opinion. "The world has consumed only 18% of its oil potential", he says, that is to say 1 trillion barrels out of total reserves of 000 5 billion constituted by the conventional crude already discovered and extractable (700 1 billion), the tar sands from Canada and heavy oils from Venezuela (200 trillion), improved oil recovery rates (1 billion) and future discoveries (500 billion). Sufficient reserves, in his eyes, to ensure "more than one hundred and forty years of consumption at the current rate" and "discredit" the arguments of those who announce an imminent decline in production (the famous peak oil).
These estimates "should not exempt us from thinking about the energy transition," warns the president of the French Petroleum Institute, Olivier Appert. These data are vigorously contested, notably by former petroleum geologists at Aspo (Association for the Study of the Peak Oil & Gas), who predict a decline in crude production over the next decade. The production figures are "manipulated" and those of the reserves "very political", summarizes Jean Laherrère, former technical director of exploration of Total and member of the ASPO. Technical data is a state secret (except in the United States, Great Britain and Norway), he adds.
What is certain is that the reserves are running out. Despite deposits as promising as those recently discovered in the Gulf of Mexico, proven reserves are increasing by only 1% per year (against 4,5% during the 1980s) and the barrels discovered since 1999 do not compensate than 45% of those that were consumed over this period.
The gas. It is in full development. Its consumption is expected to increase by 138% by 2050, most of it to power power plants, according to the IEA. Long split into regional markets (Asia, Europe, North America) due to pipeline transportation constraints, it is globalizing thanks to huge liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in Russia, Qatar and Iran (60% of reserves global). In 2030, more than half of gas trade will be in the form of LNG. But unlike coal, gas is concentrated in countries with strong "energy nationalism" (Venezuela, Russia, Bolivia, etc.).
The coal. It remains the "King Coal" in the world, despite CO2 emissions twice as high as those of gas. Between 1970 and 2004, demand increased by 110% (49% for oil). If nothing is done, it will triple by 2050, according to the IEA. And its reserves are colossal: BP estimates them at 910 billion tonnes, which promises 155 years of production - against about 45 years for oil and 60 years for gas, again according to BP - at the current rate. Another asset is that coal is everywhere, while a growing share of oil and gas is produced in politically unstable regions. "By cutting off gas to Ukraine and therefore to Europe, Putin has made an unexpected publicity for coal," notes an industrialist in the sector. It is less expensive to extract and 83% of its production is consumed in the country of extraction. As for the risk of pollution during its maritime transport, it is zero.
More than 40% of the world's electricity is produced from coal (20% from gas, and 16% from nuclear). "After the gas peak of the 1990s in the United States, coal is regaining the central place it had in the energy matrix", welcomes Philippe Joubert, CEO of Alstom Power. World leader in turbines for coal-fired power stations, it is now gaining orders, particularly in Asia. "In Europe, it is also a fuel that will develop, among other things because of the price of gas", adds the former president of Charbonnages de France, Philippe de Ladoucette, now president of the Regulatory Commission of energy (CRE).
BE PROFITABLE AND CLEAN
Provided it is profitable. Uncertainty weighs in fact on its competitive advantage in the event that the price of CO2 emission permits significantly increases its cost. And on condition of becoming clean. Because of all fossil fuels, it is the most harmful to health (mine accidents, silicosis, lung diseases). However, two thirds of the 1 GW of coal-based electrical capacity will be installed, by 400, in developing countries - whose plants emit 2030% more CO20 than plants in OECD countries.
"European industry can take technological leadership in capturing and storing CO2," indicates a recent report from the interministerial delegation for sustainable development, submitted to Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin. "It will be necessary to examine under what conditions to transfer this know-how to the poorest countries", noted recently John Browne, CEO of BP. Otherwise, he warned, "they will be doomed to meet their energy needs by resorting to old dirty technologies."
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0 ... 431,0.html