Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and his colleagues are more than pessimistic about the evolution of global warming. According to their work published in Science, even assuming a net halt to any emission of greenhouse gases linked to human activity, global warming is inevitable.
At the end of the 21th century, in the best case, the average global temperature of the air will thus gain 0,5 ° C and the sea level 11 cm. The researchers synthesized the results of numerous simulations of two types of climate models - the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and the Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3) - conducted on the NCAR supercomputers and laboratories. US Department of Energy and on the Japanese Earth Simulator.
Despite differences between the two regarding the intensity of the phenomenon, the observed trend remains the same: the increase in global temperature and sea level during the next 100 years. For researchers, this inevitability could be explained largely by the thermal inertia of the oceans and the long life cycle of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Model simulations performed (which do not take into account
the impact of melting glaciers and ice caps) confirm the need to act strongly to avoid further aggravating the future situation.
WP 18 / 03 / 05 (Global warming inevitable, data show)