Oil: the beginning of the end?

Oil production in non-OPEC countries will fall "just after 2010", warns the IEA

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is not alarmist, but it is starting to prepare the public for the coming tomorrows: shortly after 2010, the production of states that are not members of the Organization of the Countries oil exporters (OPEC) should begin to decline. This pessimistic forecast will be one of the messages that the agency charged since 1974 to defend the interests of the consumer countries will launch in its annual report "World Energy Outlook 2005" released November 7.

Non-OPECs include large producers such as Russia, China, the United States, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan or Norway and now supply 60% of the world's crude. "Conventional oil production - out of heavy oils and bitumens - will reach a ceiling just after 2010," says Fatih Birol, director of economic studies at the IEA. The production profile for the future will depend on technology, prices and investments. "

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