Global surface temperatures could rise by 11 degrees Celsius, according to the largest climate modeling program ever conducted.
The first results of the climateprediction.net experiment have just been published on the January 27 in the scientific journal Nature. Located in more than 150 countries, 95 000 computers connected to each other have enabled the development of 60 000 climate models, all coordinated by Oxford University.
The models used predict a rise in the average temperature of the Earth from 2 ° C to 11.5 ° C. The high estimate so far accepted has been doubled, with the range of IPCC models ranging from 2 ° C to 5.8 ° C. An increase of 3.4 ° C on the 2050 horizon is considered the most likely. The highest temperatures (between 8 and 11.5 ° C) have only a probability of 4.6% to be realized, but this is the first time that a General Circulation Model predicts such an increase.
An atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 ppm (ppm = parts per million) is considered dangerous by scientists; The current 2005 start concentration is 378 ppm and we are earning 2ppm every year. Global fossil fuel consumption is 7,5 billion tonnes of oil equivalent per year and is growing.