Global surface temperatures could rise by 11 degrees Celsius, according to the largest climate modeling program ever conducted.
The first results of the climateprediction.net experiment have just been published on January 27 in the scientific journal Nature. Located in over 150 countries, 95 interconnected computers have enabled the development of 000 climate models, all coordinated by the University of Oxford.
The models used predict an increase in the average temperature of the Earth from 2 ° C to 11.5 ° C. The high estimate so far accepted has therefore been doubled, with the range of IPCC models only going from 2 ° C to 5.8 ° C. An increase of 3.4 ° C by 2050 is considered the most likely. The highest temperatures (between 8 and 11.5 ° C) only have a 4.6% probability of being achieved, but this is the first time that a General Circulation Model has predicted such a rise.
An atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 ppm (ppm = parts per million) is considered dangerous by scientists; The current 2005 start concentration is 378 ppm and we are earning 2ppm every year. Global fossil fuel consumption is 7,5 billion tonnes of oil equivalent per year and is growing.