MOSCOW, January 9 - Tatiana Sinitsyna commentator for RIA Novosti. Considered early as triumphant to the Kyoto Protocol, the 2005 year ends on a note much more pessimistic.
The fate of this first international project called for reducing the human influence on the atmosphere and prevent climate change becomes more and more uncertain. Forecasts for 2006 are bleak. Many experts expressed their fears about the future of this unique project.
The pessimistic forecasts are based, according to Sergey Kurayev, an employee of the Russian Ecological Center, who recently participated in the 11th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Montreal. "It is enough to recall the rigid position of the American administration which does not wish to hear the words" Kyoto Protocol ". The Americans said even before coming to Montreal that they would only participate in the 11e Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change and would not discuss the agenda of the first meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. Russian slowness in developing the institutional basis of the Kyoto Protocol has also played a negative role, "Kurayev said.
However, the Montreal Conference has made some progress. The lively discussions between 150 signatories of the Kyoto Protocol defending their interests, refusing to yield an inch of their rights, eventually led to the adoption of the Marrakesh Accords. The Accords legally set accounting for emissions of greenhouse gases, the terms of realization of joint implementation projects, the trading of allowances, etc. The agreements also stipulate the granting of additional emission allowances to forest powers given their oxygen supply, and this directly concerns Russia.
The adoption of the Marrakesh Accords paving the way for the realization of the Kyoto Protocol as a UN document. However the concrete obligations of individual countries are still under discussion.
The discussions on the launch of negotiations to define a second tranche of reducing greenhouse gases by industrialized countries after 2012 were very vivid. The countries have no concrete proposals in this regard or ideas about the form and manner of these talks. The parties have also agreed to set up a special working group to expose future commitments and develop coping mechanisms volunteer commitments.
Considering that the Kyoto Protocol has become fully operational in Montreal. But will it be effective without the United States, China and India - major emitters of greenhouse gas and polluting of the atmosphere? There is no chance that they adhere to the Kyoto Protocol and the enthusiasm shown by the EU and supported by Russia is not enough. The Americans say taking national measures to reduce emissions. And emerging countries - India and China - insist on the need to catch them still lags behind developed countries. This leaves little chance in the Kyoto process.