MOSCOW, January 9 - Tatiana Sinitsyna, commentator of RIA Novosti. Considered at first as triumphant for the Kyoto Protocol, the year 2005 ended on a markedly more pessimistic note.
The fate of this first international project called to reduce anthropogenic influence on the atmosphere and thus prevent climate change is becoming more and more uncertain. The forecast for 2006 is bleak. Many experts express their fears about the future of this unique project.
The pessimistic forecasts are well founded, according to Sergei Kourayev, an employee of the Russian Ecological Center, who recently participated in the 11th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Montreal. "Suffice it to recall the rigid position of the American administration which does not wish to hear the words" Kyoto Protocol ". The Americans have declared before even coming to Montreal that they will only participate in the events of the 11th session of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change and that they will not discuss the program of the first meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. Russia's slowness in developing the institutional basis for the Kyoto Protocol also played its negative role, ”said Kourayev.
However, the Montreal Conference recorded some progress. The heated discussions between the 150 signatory states of the Kyoto Protocol which defended their interests, refusing to give up an inch of their rights, finally led to the adoption of the Marrakesh agreements. The Agreements legally established the accounting for greenhouse gas emissions, the procedures for carrying out joint application projects, trading in allowances, etc. The agreements also stipulate the granting of additional emission quotas to the forest powers taking into account their oxygen supply, and this directly concerns Russia.
The adoption of the Marrakesh Accords paves the way for the realization of the Kyoto Protocol as a United Nations document. However, the concrete obligations of each country are still under discussion.
The debates on launching talks to define a second tranche of greenhouse gas reduction by industrialized countries after 2012 were very heated. The countries have neither concrete proposals on this subject nor ideas on the formula and the modalities of these interviews. The parties finally agreed to set up a special working group responsible for setting out future commitments and developing mechanisms for making voluntary commitments.
The Kyoto Protocol is considered to have become fully operational in Montreal. But will it be effective without the United States, China and India - the main emitters of greenhouse gases and air polluters? There is no chance that they will join the Kyoto Protocol and the enthusiasm shown by the EU and supported by Russia is not enough. Americans say they are taking national action to reduce emissions. And the emerging countries - India and China - insist on the need to catch up, despite everything, on the developed countries. This leaves little chance for the Kyoto process.
source: Novosti Agency