The idea of ​​Kyoto loses its chances for the future

MOSCOW, January 9 - Tatiana Sinitsyna, commentator for RIA Novosti. Considered at the outset as triumphant for the Kyoto Protocol, 2005 ended on a much more pessimistic note.

The fate of this first international project called to reduce anthropogenic influence on the atmosphere and thus prevent climate change is becoming more and more uncertain. Forecasts for 2006 are bleak. Many experts express their fears about the future of this unique project.

The pessimistic forecasts are correct, according to Sergei Kurayev, an employee of the Russian Ecological Center, who recently attended the 11th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Montreal. "It suffices to recall the rigid position of the American administration which does not wish to hear the words 'Kyoto Protocol'. The Americans said even before coming to Montreal that they would only participate in the events of the 11th session of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change and that they would not discuss the agenda for the first meeting of the United Nations. Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. Russia's slowness in developing the institutional basis for the Kyoto Protocol has also played its negative role, ”Kouraïev stressed.

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However, the Montreal Conference made some progress. The lively discussions between the 150 signatory states of the Kyoto Protocol who defended their interests, refusing to give up an inch of their rights, finally led to the adoption of the Marrakech agreements. The Agreements have legally established the accounting for greenhouse gas emissions, the methods of carrying out joint application projects, the trading of quotas, etc. The agreements also stipulate the granting of additional emission quotas to the forestry powers taking into account their oxygen supply, and this directly concerns Russia.

The adoption of the Marrakesh Accords paves the way for the realization of the Kyoto Protocol as a United Nations document. However, the concrete obligations of each country are still being discussed.

The debates on the launch of talks with a view to defining a second tranche of greenhouse gas reduction by industrialized countries after 2012 were very lively. The countries have neither concrete proposals on this subject nor ideas on the formula and modalities of these talks. The parties finally agreed to set up a special working group responsible for setting out future commitments and developing mechanisms for making voluntary commitments.

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The Kyoto Protocol is considered to have become fully operational in Montreal. But will it be effective without the United States, China and India - the main emitters of greenhouse gases and polluters of the atmosphere? There is no chance that they will join the Kyoto Protocol and the enthusiasm shown by the EU and supported by Russia is not enough. Americans say they are taking national action to reduce emissions. And the emerging countries - India and China - insist on the need to catch up with the developed countries despite everything. This leaves little room for the Kyoto process.

source: Novosti Agency

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