Editorial premières..faut materials he believe?

[jean63]

Excerpt from an article published by Agora (I "fired" all the advice on buying on the stock market that has nothing to do here, is not it?) ... it's still interesting to read. then we think what we want ==>

Monday February 26 2007
Paris, France

A point on the markets

I propose to make a small point on the various commodity markets, looking back at the trends of the past week and giving you some insights on the outlook.

Energy
Uncertainty was on the rough market last week. The prices of light crude oil listed on the NYMEX proved volatile and evolved in a channel between 58 $ and 59 $ per barrel.
WTI continued to "wander" between 57 $ and 59 $ a barrel, without ever succeeding to cross the psychological threshold of 60 $.

Let's first look at the factors that put downward pressure on prices:
There was a decline in 3,8% US stocks of distillates (including home heating oil) over the week, the largest decline since September of 2005.
Gasoline inventories are also down by 3 million barrels.
Add to this that US oil refineries run at only 82,5% of their capacity, the lowest level recorded since March 2006.

What makes the price go up? Iran, of course, its nuclear program, its threats and its stubbornness. We will know more this week.

I take this opportunity to make a parenthesis about uranium that I have already spoken to you on several occasions. Never has the demand been so strong. So much so that the price of the U3O8 won 13% on the week, at 85 $ the pound. Simone Wapler tells you more in a few lines.

Precious metals
Impossible to retain the gold. It has taken over 20% since October and currently quotes 681 $ per ounce, an increase of 1,9% over the week. Beautiful recovery, progressive and very smooth.
Inflationary risks, the rise in crude prices and the risks of geopolitical crisis with Iran push the ounce up. Asian demand (notably China and India) remains unfulfilled and is largely in support of gold, but also silver, which gained 1,9% over the week, at 14,24 $ an ounce.

Industrial metals
Here too, the weather has remained good all week! Several factors explain this good health: the strong Chinese demand, the fall of the Asian stocks, the strengthening of the long positions of the speculative funds (which bet on the rise) on the markets, and the earthquake in Chile (the 19 February) which has largely supported the price of copper.

Copper gained 7% over the week at 6 185 $ per tonne.

Tin continued its ascent to 13 550 $ per tonne. And for good reason: while demand remains strong for tin, stocks are low, and supply is shrinking. Uncertainties hover over supply as a result of the nationalization of the Bolivian tin mine Vinto on the one hand, and the restrictions on Chinese and especially Indonesian exports on the other (I told you about it last week). So much so that the price touched 14 050 $ per tonne on the LME during the week.

Same story of lead and zinc on the LME. For these two metals, we simultaneously note a decline in inventories and an increase in demand. The price of lead thus gained 5% last week at 1 955 $ per tonne and 5,5% zinc at 3 550 $ per tonne.

I finish with the nickel that continues to run forward at an incredible speed. He still won over 16% on the week at 43 200 $ per ton. I do not believe my eyes ... He has won 30% since the beginning of the year and 160% in 2006!

Soft Drinks
The cereals performed very well this week as well. Corn was particularly notable in the Chicago market, reaching a higher level two days in a row. The March contract ended at $ 4,32 a bushel, an increase of 3,6% over the week. It is supported by demand related to ethanol, by the level of stocks and by meteorological data. March-April is expected to have significant rainfall, which would have a negative effect on seeding. Experts also anticipate a drought in June-July, which also benefited wheat.

Last week, Australia announced wheat side a likely decline of 60% of its harvest (already in the courts), following the dreadful drought that has fallen on the continent. Add to that the rise in Indian demand ... and you're seeing 3,6% rise in the price of the March futures for wheat at $ 4,85 a bushel.

Soybean has also recorded an increase following expectations of a fall in production (Damien and I will talk about it tomorrow). May delivery just surpassed the $ 8 and the maturing March contract won over 2% week at $ 7,82 a bushel.

PROSPECTS AND ACHIEVEMENTS
It will be necessary for the crude to come out of uncertainty sooner or later. The Americans and Europeans meet to follow the sanctions against Iran who is stubbornly against all in his way. Several scenarios are possible. An economic boycott, the isolation of Iran or a military attack. Whichever option is chosen, it will have an impact on the price of the crude. Because let's not forget that Iran is the second biggest exporter of OPEC crude oil. Add to that the drop in stocks in the US ...This situation should propel the WTI over the 60 $. Maybe even up to 62 $ - 65 $ a barrel. We will see.

Uranium is expected to gain ground in the coming weeks.

Gold is not at the end of its rise. The geopolitical situation should largely support it in the days to come. It should only pause when it reaches the threshold of 700 $ an ounce. Then we can attend a consolidation phase. Same thing for the money.

On the industrial metals side, I think the upward trend is expected to continue.

Ditto for cereals that still have potential. Even if the increase of corn takes more and more the appearance of a bubble! ...

New Oil - "cheap" at $ 100 a barrel ?!

Find out why the dry out is waiting for the planet ... and will bring radical changes to your lifestyle.

The explosion of uranium

Uranium: + 650% in less than 3 years
Let's go back to the uranium: its performances began mid-2004, when it was worth 10 $ the pound. It is worth today 85. An increase of 750% in less than 3 years. When uranium woke up, its price doubled each year. This is much more than the official raw materials and that justified one digs a little meninges. The problem was that there was not, at first, investment focused on uranium.
A company like Areva sells engineering services and nuclear power plants. A company like Cameco is quite similar to Areva, with a more developed mining component. But Cameco sells nuclear power more than "yellow cake", uranium ore. A mining company like BHP Billiton is very diversified. Uranium is only a small part of its production.

Finally, there will be one after uranium. It starts already. I watch thorium, a substitute for "yellow cake" which, unlike him, is useless for arming. But this is another story …

[Targol]

That the price of raw materials is rising is logical and this is not likely to reverse.

For more than a century, humans have drawn on geological reserves for their industrial needs, once broken (or quite simply obsolete), consumer goods are thrown away and end up in an incinerator or landfill for "ultimate waste".

Certainly, we have seen in recent years to mount recycling channels that recover some of the raw material to reinject it into the industrial circuit.

But what percentage of raw material is actually recycled? Not masses, in my opinion, except maybe for some raw materials such as steel that recycles quite easily (the foreign elements are destroyed during the redesign).

In short, even without counting the losses that make a recycled product all is not recovered, the equation is far from balanced.

If we add to that this damn "Growth" that makes everyone always want more, it is not likely to improve ...

[elephant]

you will notice the weakness of the small saver: even if you have a million euros, you do not have a lot of "power" "

children are struggling to get 4 at 6% / year of their savings, if you arrive at a Luxembourg or Swiss financier with your million euro, you can participate in a fund and you allow financiers to earn a good living. ... (with your money)

on the other hand, when you control hundreds of millions of euros, there you make a good living: you can buy the cargo of a boat and sometimes win 10% ..... in one week

as I said more than once on this forum: "it costs less to be rich ..."