Burning autumn ... global warming?

[saveplanet]

France is experiencing its warmest autumn since 1950, with temperatures 2,9 degrees above seasonal normal for the past three months.
This is a temperature anomaly for the whole fall of 3 degrees.
September was 2,9 degrees higher than normal and 3,3 degrees higher in October, making the two months the second warmest since 1950.
November is also expected to be 2,4 degrees above seasonal normal, making it the fourth hottest month in 56 years.
After a particularly cool week, November then saw particularly mild temperatures, especially around the 15th and 25th.

Temperatures in early December are also expected to remain above normal.

Another manifestation of global warming ?!

[abyssin3]

Yes, but like all statistics, it reminds us that this scenario had already happened in 1950 ...
What worries me more is the events that have accumulated during the year. If anyone remembers, spring has come very late this year, now it's winter coming late. And that makes one think of a shift in the seasons which can happen (?) If sea currents or atmospheric currents change (= consequence of warming).

And in the case of spring and autumn, we see repercussions on the fauna / flora:
- in the spring, the trees did not bud even at quite late periods (~ May).
- in the fall, some trees bloom a second time, such as the Geneva chestnut tree, which has not happened since 1818, but especially in Germany animals (frogs) do not go into hibernation and the birds do not migrate still south.

Even in the USA, there seems to be the same phenomenon, which also means that it is general on the globe and that it is not due to a badly placed high pressure as in the last heat wave.

A singer said "at the beginning of spring, the birds came back"...

[Christophe]

"Didou ... well say Marie ... there are more seasons (this year)" sorry I don't know how to do the farmer's accent well ...

[Christophe]

A singer said "at the beginning of spring, the birds came back"...

Perfectly and it was not a cardboard singer (2 dimensions for those who would not have understood my rotten valve ...)

[bham]

I confirm with two observations:
-in our corner of Moselle, cattle, among others, have been the object of attacks by mosquitoes normally present in hot areas. Animals can die from it. Sorry, I don't know +, neither on the mosquito species nor on the contracted disease but a sanitary protection zone has been established.
-I came home from the oak forest in October and November. Never before have I seen wood so wet (so much that the bark comes off easily, which is a feat for wood cut 6 months before) and that it is covered with mushrooms. Blame it on abundant rainfall, from August and mild temperatures which mean that it does not dry out.

[Woodcutter]

The Italian locust Callipticus italicus was seen this summer north of Dijon when it usually frequents the dry moors around the Mediterranean. Until now, it was only found in mainland France on a few dry southern slopes of the Massif Central, in the Causses du Larzac.

[Christophe]

So far, so good...

[Other]

Hello,
In Quebec
A month of November without snow, the land is not frozen, a lot of rain in October and November, the grass is still green, normally everything should be yellow, (or white) frosts at night, but in the day last Saturday 8c.
Yesterday evening I saw a sailboat of geese (bustard) descend in the south, normally in mid October they all descended.
If that's not warming up ...
This means that if it snows on a land that is not frozen, the snow isolates the land from freezing and it will not freeze over the winter.

Andre

[Colmant]

can we make a parallel on the 2003 season, heat wave in July, floods in December?

sad memories

[abyssin3]

bham

It reminds me of another detail that I had forgotten: that the authorities responsible for monitoring epidemics see red because mosquitoes - which are powerful vectors of parasites (palu, etc.) - reach more and more regions. more northern, and increasingly succeed in surviving it, year after year. What could bring us malaria, chicungunya or other (what bothers them is economically of course ... the catamaran).
If the weather were cool, these mosquito populations would move south over the years, not north.

Colmant
In my opinion, the situation is much worse than in 2003, because on the one hand in 2003 it was localized, but there it is the same on at least two continents (America and Europe), the same observations. That said, in 2003 as now, glaciers are still melting just as quickly, everywhere.
And where I see a major change, it is on the flora and fauna which are real environmental markers.
1 ° For example, it has long been known to accurately assess the degree of pollution of a river by observing the species that live there. There are many species that can settle in one place, but all of them are never together because of their relationships with each other and their sensitivity to their environment. For example in a polluted and disgusting river, there are only mosquito larvae to survive there. You will never see dragonfly larvae there, very fragile. But in very clean water, dragonfly larvae can develop, and you will no longer see mosquito larvae as they serve as a meal for dragonfly larvae. And dozens of species can serve as a landmark in similar or very different ways.
2. Another example is to determine the age of a corpse. It has also been known for a long time that such and such a maggot (A) develops after so much decomposition time, such other (B) before, such other (C) after. So if you find the maggot species A and B in the corpse, you know precisely the moment of death (it's simplified, we can maybe use dozens of bugs).

In fact, to sum up, we often talk about an ecological niche. Each species has its own. If conditions change in one place e or at a time t, this niche becomes uninhabitable for the current species which is obliged to leave it, and thus leaves a new free niche for another species (hence the migration of birds). So when we see species having unusual behaviors, it is because there is a certain cause, but that we ourselves do not necessarily see on our scale.
However, precisely in 2003, I do not remember having seen, summer or winter, species behaving abnormally. Which is beginning to be the case. So if next year is the same thing, or even the one after ... WE ARE ALL COOKED!

but OK, So far, so good...