The European Energy Markets Observatory published by Capgemini attests to the lack of investment in production infrastructure.
THE SECURITY of European energy supplies continues to deteriorate. At a time of inflation in energy prices - and despite the increase in investment -, the main lesson from the latest European Energy Markets Observatory, published today by Capgemini, sounds like a warning.
In the near past, power cuts in Italy and Switzerland have shown that the electrical blackout was no longer a theoretical risk. Currently, according to the Observatory, the situation in Spain is particularly worrying because of a very small margin to increase their production capacity in the perspective of an exceptional event.
The Observatory indeed supports its verdict on the calculation of this margin of operators which represents "what they have under foot" to face consumption conditions which are becoming less and less rare, such as a cold spell or a heat wave episode. This margin varies from country to country, but it appears that it went from 5,8% in 2004 to 4,8% in 2005, its lowest historical level.
"This low level of margins highlights the high risks weighing on security of supply and underlines the need to invest in production plants 700 billion euros by 2030, to reduce these risks to acceptable levels, ”says the Observatory.
Market shares at the expense of infrastructure
Admittedly, the big companies of the sector started again to invest in their means of production and their networks with an improved profitability thanks to the increase in the prices of gas and electricity. But this is not enough. “Several factors explain this deficit: faced with deregulation of the market, operators seek above all to regain market shares, investing first in customer bases (often abroad) rather than in new infrastructure. In addition, due to the cumbersome administrative procedures, the construction times for these infrastructures have increased considerably, increasing the risks for operators, ”underlines Colette Lewiner, international director of the energy, utilities and chemicals sector at Capgemini.
It also usefully recalls that these are very large investments, running over several decades, which poses a risk to the accounts of operators. “This is why they are happy to be cautious, little helped it is true, by the new market rules which induce increased volatility in their customer base as well as wholesale prices. "
In its last delivery, the Capgemini Observatory clearly shows the jump (+ 70%) recorded by spot electricity prices on the markets, between 2004 and 2005, up to 270 euros per megawatt (MW). In addition to the fragile balance between supply and demand, the Observatory insists on the explosion of the barrel, but also on the increase in the prices of CO2 certificates.
A future Blackout, a
freddau wrote:I'm going to see for the preserves.
Targol you are interested in finding a group.
Me, I already have lots of canned food (but houses in addition).
As for the group, I will recover my grandfather's old man who is no longer used by anyone.
0 x
"Anyone who believes that exponential growth can continue indefinitely in a finite world is a fool, or an economist." KEBoulding
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