Documentary: A cold snap on the planet

[Logan]

Now a Docu in infrared on France 2
"Cold snap on the planet"
And if the ice of the North Pole melted by 20 years

Sorry, I could not warn before, I do not watch TV programs

[Logan]

I had already seen but it's good to refresh your ideas.

So let's summarize:

1 / THE PHENOMENON
Global warming is causing 3 phenomena whose effects are cumulative to lower the salinity of the North Atlantic by bringing considerable amounts of fresh water:
- Increase in general rainfall
- Melting of the ice cap of Groendland
- Increase of the flow of the surrounding rivers (50% by 100 years)

If the salinity drops by 1%, the Golf Stream stops (1 chance on 2 that it happens from here 100 years)
Outside the Golf Stream is a marine current that heats the western shores of Europe. If it stops there will be a cooling of Western Europe even if globally (globally) there is a warming.
The cessation of the marine current will be a brutal phenomenon according to the sediment studies which reveal that this has already happened.

2 / CONSEQUENCES

If the shutdown occurs in 50 years. We will observe winters as cold as the worst winters of the last century (in 62 / 63) and at a frequency of 1 every 7 years.

If the stop takes place in 20 years, we will observe the appearance of a sea of ​​ice off the English coast during the winter. And we can expect from 30 to 100 snow days a year. In short, it's the Canadian climate.


3 / AND IT'S NOT ALL

On the other hand, a lowering of the temperature in the North Atlantic will cause a drying up of the southern hemisphere. As a consequence, the arid zones move further south.
The disappearance of the Amazon forest is expected, leaving a prairie landscape.

***
Outside when we know the essential function of carbon sinks of this forest, we can think that it will aggravate even more the global warming (It is a reflection which is not addressed in docu but which seems to me obvious).

[Christophe]

Here is the link to the FR2 website presenting this documentary http://contrecourant.france2.fr/cc_scie ... rticle=184

[denis]

we go to the cat! no one can really predict what will happen! the population will migrate, there will be wars of territory etc, our poor children!

[Woodcutter]

[...] The disappearance of the Amazon forest is foreseen, leaving a prairie landscape.

***
Outside when we know the essential function of carbon sinks of this forest, we can think that it will aggravate even more the global warming (It is a reflection which is not addressed in docu but which seems to me obvious).

I think you say a lot to yourself by saying that ...

A mature and balanced forest, as can be the Amazonian forest in which the human hand has not yet set foot on an industrial scale, is absolutely not a "carbon sink". .

Moreover, the GulfStream stunt theory is a little out of fashion now and what we can say is that it is far from being recognized in scientific circles.

[jean63]

I saw this docu and even recorded in VHS to look at it again with hindsight.

There are indeed disturbing elements in the discoveries of American researchers on the cores in the ice of Greenland, which shows that certain glaciations have occurred over very short periods; relationships with certain deep sea shells that can live only in the presence of a marine current that provides them with the nutrients necessary for their growth.

I have already seen several other documents on the slowdown and even the stopping of the Gulf Stream. What I had never heard is the sudden stop possible in 20 years (it's tomorrow).

What is actually noted and disturbing is the very fast melting of Greenland glaciers, from there to deduce the announced disaster scenarios .......... each to its version and it may be necessary to take a little perspective on all these forecasts but we must recognize that on the moment it is disturbing and disturbing.

With the current scientific means we want to dissect all, foresee everything, but I believe that we must remain humble before the power of nature and not want to explain everything by SCIENCE.

[Logan]

I may not have insisted enough on the fact that these are actually simulations of climate models and therefore of theory.
Moreover, scientists match these forecasts with probabilities.

1 chance on 2 that this will happen by 100 years after their model.
So the proba that it happens in 20 years and obviously much weaker (the figure is not indicated in the docu, probably to preserve the dramatic side of docu)

So we are in the theory but it is the lot of all the prospective sciences, is it useful to remember.

On the other hand, the fact that this has already happened (Gulfstream judgment) is not disputed by the majority of scientists, but I admit that I am not aware of the arguments of the opponents.

As far as the Amazonian forest is concerned, the fact that it is classified as a carbon sink (growing forest) or as a simple stock does not change the fact that following its disappearance, a huge amount of carbon will be released in the forest. 'atmosphere. That was my point.

[desc]

Some links on the subject to go further:

about the IPCC (gathering of 3000 researchers in the world on the issue of GHGs and global warming, a summary report every 5 years, next report expected for 2006)
http://www.manicore.com/documentation/serre/GIEC.html

and also:

http://www.manicore.com/documentation/s ... ation.html

on the scenarios of increase of T ° and their consequences ...

[jean63]

The manicore site of Jean-Marc Jancovici is serious.

We find that there =>

The argument of shouting to the wolf for research credits, sometimes heard, may seem a priori acceptable, but it turns out that in Europe, exactly the opposite happens: the more the record seems solid, and the more the public authorities tend to consider that "we know enough like that and there is no need to fund other research". And in the US, with the current government, it would probably be more scientists who seek to challenge the case that would have financial facilities!

In the Docu Infra-rouge are American researchers who talk about their findings, so we can think that it is serious. So, now there is more to monitor the evolution of the climate in the coming 20 years to begin, if we manage to survive !!
For the French researchers, I know something about it since my daughter is in it (surveillance of the oceans by satellites) and her future is surely in the USA; it's incredible: they are the ones who pollute the most and at the same time who provide the most financial means to work on global warming !!
Although I am convinced by the seriousness of all these works, nothing will prevent me from thinking that there are surely some parameters which hide behind their shadow and which one does not take into account.

This is where we talk about the currents and at the end of the article it concerns precisely the subject treated in FR2 docu:

Did the Pentagon say that the Gulf Stream would stop in 2020?

This eventuality of a shutdown of the Gulf Stream served as a basis for a "report" made for the Pentagon (the US Department of Defense) and made a big splash in the early 2004 press. Some journalists have not hesitated to explain that the Pentagon "warned" Bush that the climatic disturbances were going to be terrible in a very long time, posing in the near future formidable problems to the internal security of the USA.

http://www.manicore.com/documentation/s ... rants.html