Warm up: a little respite before diving back
NOUVELOBS.COM | 10.08.2007 | 12: 59
A more precise modeling of the climate of the coming years anticipates a slowing of the warming up to 2009 then a new rise of the temperatures.
The 21th century will be hot, it is a certainty. But given the temperatures and this summer it's really not easy. British researchers explain this phenomenon by a variability of the climate caused by natural phenomena.
A widespread criticism of global climate models, particularly for their ability to predict the immediate future, is that they include only factors influenced by changes outside the climate system such as solar radiation, atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases. greenhouse effect.
They would thus neglect the internal variability of the climate resulting from phenomena like El Niño, the fluctuations in the oceanic circulation and variations of heat of the ocean. These phenomena could induce short-term, regional changes in particular, very different from the average warming expected during this century because of human activities
To capture these more subtle effects, meteorologists have improved the predictive capability of a climate model by incorporating information about the actual state of the oceans and the atmosphere instead of approximations as was the case previously. They have thus implemented a modeling that predicts both the internal variability and the changes made by the outside. A series of retrospective forecasts over the last decades has shown that this model gives more accurate values of global surface temperature on this time scale.
This model predicts that warming will slow down in the next few years and then accelerate, and that at least half of the years after 2009 will be warmer than 1998, the hottest year ever recorded. In other words, the planet will experience a little respite before starting to sweat for good. According to the authors, the next decade represents a horizon before which planning measures for infrastructure upgrading, energy policy and economic development should be adopted. After the tensions will be bigger and act in the emergency rarely gives good results.
JI
Science and Future.com
10/08/07
Source: Science and Future on Link
ps: I find the details (2009) very precise on the scale of the warming ... anyway it is not a surprise that the warming will induce regional cooling ...