20 years: this is the time left to humanity to live on this planet

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20 years: this is the time left to humanity to live on this planet




by Christophe » 12/10/18, 09:18

+ 1,5 ° C in 20 years? Total disappearance of the man? I thought the IPCC predictions were made on the 2100 horizon?

Apocalypse now / JEAN-FRANCIS PECRESSE / 08 / 10 to 19: 29

Twenty years is the time left for humanity to live on this planet as it has always lived - or so. Each year, the elements are unleashed a little more. But in twenty years, when the average temperature on the surface of the globe will have risen by 1,5 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era, it is the apocalypse we are promised.

Published Monday, the latest report of the Giec, the group of international experts, is the most disturbing ever published. For the first time, he leaves only a tiny space for hope. It is not reassuring to learn from reading that, with 1,5 ° C more instead of 2 ° C, we will experience a little less cyclones and droughts, that the sea level will move a few million less inhabitants, that 90% of coral reefs will be gone and not 99%, or that the melting of permafrost will release a little less greenhouse gas.

It's not reassuring because we're heading straight for a warmer planet of 3 ° C at the end of the century, and 1,5 ° C in 2040. This degree and a half separates a liveable world from an unbearable world. Needless to say, scientists force the trait. In twenty years, the damage done to nature will be irreversible. This means that, unless there is a huge collective surge, we, our children and grandchildren will survive in a violent environment.

Realism commands right now to adapt to this hostile world. The medium-term common interest is too hostage to national interests in the short term to hope that a large-scale, coordinated international effort can stop the race in time. Who can still think that we will halve greenhouse gas emissions by half, while they have stopped falling in 2017 and 2018? Certainly, as long as there is hope, no matter how small, our responsibility to future generations is to hold on to it. But if the sum of individual goodwill is no longer enough, if cooperation in the UN is a chimera - it should unfortunately be confirmed in December at the next COP in Poland - then the fate of the planet can still depend on regional mobilizations. In the end of a project, Europe would rise to the challenge of humanity by deciding to subject all public policies to the only criterion that is worth it, because it overhangs all others: the preservation of the planet.


https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/ed ... 211858.php
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Re: 20 years: this is the time left to humanity to live on this planet




by Janic » 12/10/18, 10:06

it has been more than half a century since this cry of alarm was uttered, but in the total indifference of the populations as well as the industrialists. We harvest only what we sow, me included! : Cry:
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Re: 20 years: this is the time left to humanity to live on this planet




by Christophe » 27/10/18, 11:56

The NASA version is hardly more optimistic: https://www.novethic.fr/actualite/envir ... 46483.html

[Science] Overexploitation of resources and inequality will decimate our civilization in a few decades, according to NASA

It is only a matter of decades before man disappears completely. Like the Romans or the Maya, our civilization is also condemned and may not see the end of the century, according to NASA. The US space agency explains that the overexploitation of resources and the distribution of wealth increasingly unequal would be the cause of this precipitous collapse.

The last shock report of the Giec, published in early October, alerted about the imminence of a world in permanent crisis. On this occasion, another study of NASA 2014, then passed a little unnoticed, has resurfaced. Four years ago, the US space agency estimated that the collapse of our civilization would occur in just a few decades. In question, the overexploitation of natural resources and the increase of inequalities. What urgently mobilize society.

To build their reasoning, scientists have relied on the history of ancient civilizations (Romans, Mesopotamians, Mayans ...) and compared data on population, climate, agriculture, energy or the distribution of wealth of different empires. They have come to the conclusion that since 5 000 years, civilizations disappear when men overexploit resources and organize society between a small number of rich and a mass of poor. For example, deforestation and intensive maize cultivation would have led to the collapse of the Mayas.

The disappearance of the poorest causes the disappearance of the elites

According to the researchers, two scenarios are available to us. The first describes a world in which the richest, fewer and fewer, would monopolize all wealth, leaving the poorest victims of a deadly famine. The disappearance of the workers would lead little by little to that of the elites, deprived of manpower. The second scenario is based on too much exploitation of resources, which would again lead to the disappearance of the poorest first and then the richest.

To avoid these disaster scenarios, the study highlights the importance of reducing economic inequalities and the consumption of non-renewable resources. In 2015, another study by the British University Anglia Ruskin estimated that there was only 25 to live to our civilization, because of catastrophic food shortages that would occur if nothing was done to change the game.


Collapse of a civilization does not mean the disappearance of humanity, I have the impression that many people equate the two ...

The Greek, Roman, Persian, Ottoman Empire ... have collapsed and we are still here ... what changes are the lifestyles... and on this point it is 30 or 40 years that some (of which we) say that the more we drag to change them, the more the change will be brutal and painful ......
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Re: 20 years: this is the time left to humanity to live on this planet




by Christophe » 27/10/18, 11:59

On video:

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Re: 20 years: this is the time left to humanity to live on this planet




by Ahmed » 27/10/18, 13:11

Christophe, you write:
Collapse of a civilization does not mean the disappearance of humanity, I have the impression that many people equate the two ...

The Greek, Roman, Persian, Ottoman Empire ... have collapsed well and we are still here ..

This is not synonymous, but it is not relevant to compare the various civilizations that have collapsed and that of ours.
Ancient societies were often localized, even for larger ones and their demise did not impact the rest of the world, with the principle of spatial saturation prevailing today, many more people would be concerned. That said, it would not be the disappearance of the entire population and, for some groups it would be even a great relief (and I do not speak of non-humans!).
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Re: 20 years: this is the time left to humanity to live on this planet




by Janic » 27/10/18, 13:20

That said, it would not be the disappearance of the entire population and, for some groups it would be even a great relief (and I do not speak of non-humans!).
It is doubtful! If the impact is total (except collapse of societies like ours) nobody will pass through, given the multitude of converging factors. Personally I would prefer that it does not happen for me, my children and grandchildren of child-bearing age too.
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Re: 20 years: this is the time left to humanity to live on this planet




by Ahmed » 27/10/18, 13:31

I can not answer you because I do not understand the restriction that you form in parentheses. :?:
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Re: 20 years: this is the time left to humanity to live on this planet




by Christophe » 27/10/18, 13:47

Ahmed wrote:That said, it would not be the disappearance of the entire population and, for some groups it would be even a great relief (and I do not speak of non-humans!).


If the collapse of our civilization is that of destructive, inegalitarian and genocidal capitalism, I say yes yes yes and it happens as soon as possible !! Only vile materialists will cry in their mother's skirts when that happens!

The problem is knowing what will replace it (Churchil, I believe, said: "Capitalism is the worst system but it is the best that we have found" ... or something like that) ... in all cases there will be a period of transient troubles ...

Here it reminds me of La Belle Verte:

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Re: 20 years: this is the time left to humanity to live on this planet




by Ahmed » 27/10/18, 14:17

Yes, I already noted this ambiguity: the collapse is a good thing since it will be the end of this extraordinary extractivist pressure in its consequences, but the only concern, : Mrgreen: we are part of it, willy-nilly ...
As for Churchillhe was actually talking about democracy ... :D
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Re: 20 years: this is the time left to humanity to live on this planet




by Christophe » 27/10/18, 14:19

Ah darn !! I cheated on Wiston !! : Mrgreen:

But as we are (Western world) in capitalist democracy the gap is ... say ... weak : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:
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