The title of the subject is a little provocative because we will be far from the generalized shortage but "lasting" tensions on oil prices could appear: the fundamentals of the quotation could well be affected.
Today it's more speculation, geopolitics, political tensions and the bombings which define the side of the oil law of supply and demand ...
So one certainty: it's going to climb ... but perhaps not as much in proportional between 2000 and 2010!
Bonjour à tous
(...)
Today I want to share crucial information regarding the near future the next 5 years, as transmitted by the renowned British newspaper "The Guardian" last week. The article is available at
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010 ... ion-supply
This article echoed a recent report of the United-States Joint Forces Command, entitled "The Joint Operating Environment 2010 (JOE 2010)." You can download the full report at the following address
http://www.peakoil.net/headline-news/us ... es-by-2015
Here is the key sentence it says on page report JOE 29 2010.
Or French:
"By 2012, oil production capacity surplus could disappear completely and immediately in 2015, the production shortfall could reach almost 10 million barrels per day."
This lack means that approximately 2015 10% of the demand for black gold will not be satisfied. 2008 whereas the demand and supply were balanced and we have reached a gasoline price in Canada of $ 1,40 liter, imagine what can a shortage of 10%. A significant weakening of the economies is expected. This warning comes, do not forget, the world's biggest oil consumer, the US Army. Here is what we read in the report on the consequences of this shortage:
"While it is difficulty to predict PRECISELY what economic, political, and strategic effects Such a shortfall might Produce Surely it Would Reduce the prospects for growth in Both Developed and the Developing worlds. Such an economic slowdown Would --other exacerbate unresolved tensions, push brittle and failing states further Top Down The Path Toward collapse, and Perhaps-have serious economic impact on Both China and India. At best, It Would Lead to Periods of harsh economic adjustment. "
In French
"Although it is difficult to accurately predict the economic, political, and strategic such a deficit may occur, it would certainly reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing countries than in developed countries. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile states routed further towards collapse, and possibly lead to serious economic impact on China and India. At best, it would lead to difficult economic adjustment periods. "
You should know also that the former GM Chairman Rick Wagoner told the 2008 in Detroit that had now exceeded the Planet oil production capacity and in December 2009, during the presentation of the Prius Plug, vice president of Toyota showed in his presentation a production and demand curve for oil on which one could see that the Japanese company anticipated a production deficit of 4 million barrels per day in 2015. Here also, to this effect, one of the slides of my lecture "Driving without oil."
The warning from the US Army is certainly not to be taken lightly, especially as already 2005 the Pentagon commissioned a study on peak oil "The Hirsch Report" and they have always followed the issue closely .
Now, in Quebec, when the oil barrel is $ 100 (it is currently $ 81, and rose up in 144 2008 $), it sends about 8 billion ($ 8 billion) per year in outside of Quebec to buy oil to satisfy our road transport. In 200 $ per barrel is $ 16 G which flies to distant countries and weakens our economy. To put this amount, just to realize that the current budget of the Ministry of Education of Quebec is 14 G $! So we exceed it. Here is another slide of my lecture to illustrate the situation.
By 10 years, one could even exceed the health budget, if the price of oil triple!
Given the magnitude of what is coming, we can not put our heads in the sand. It is now midnight and five, and must QUICKLY implement incentive policies to increase the supply of public transport, to help purchase new hybrid vehicles and plug-mainly all-electric (via a fair system of bonus malus) validate the devices after sales reducing fuel consumption, promote the production of components and converting conventional vehicles ...
Moreover, time is no longer the outrageous spending in unprofitable megaprojects like a bullet train that would engulf 15 20 to G $ for Quebec alone, while empty wheelchair at 3 / 4 most of the time. We also need to stop spending on hydrogen, which leads nowhere. To this end, it is deplorable that the Quebec government wants to further promote this technology at the airport Pierre Eliot Trudeau of Montreal. An aberration! For more information on the ineffectiveness of the hydrogen sector, I refer you to extract thematic "Hydrogen" My Newsletter Transport 21, at the following address
http://web.mac.com/pierrelanglois/PLang ... ort21.html
Unfortunately, many business people and politicians are still confused regarding sustainable transport of the future, and too inclined to listen to the lobbies. Moreover, the general population is also very little informed.
If you can help to disseminate information and to explain to those around you the very important issues of this email and their solutions, I encourage you to do. Together we will get there! :-)
Sincerely
Pierre Langlois, Ph.D.
Physicist: consultant / author
Site Internet: http://www.planglois-pca.com
ps: the 21 transportation issues are also available here Transport-21-engine-fuel-and-cars-the-future-close-t8306.html