Depletion: oil shortage early in 2015?

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Depletion: oil shortage early in 2015?




by Christophe » 21/04/10, 10:37

Pierre Langlois mailing received yesterday.

The title of the subject is a little provocative because we will be far from the generalized shortage but "lasting" tensions on oil prices could appear: the fundamentals of the quotation could well be affected.

Today it's more speculation, geopolitics, political tensions and the bombings which define the side of the oil law of supply and demand ...

So one certainty: it's going to climb ... but perhaps not as much in proportional between 2000 and 2010!

Bonjour à tous

(...)

Today I want to share crucial information regarding the near future the next 5 years, as transmitted by the renowned British newspaper "The Guardian" last week. The article is available at

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010 ... ion-supply

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This article echoed a recent report of the United-States Joint Forces Command, entitled "The Joint Operating Environment 2010 (JOE 2010)." You can download the full report at the following address

http://www.peakoil.net/headline-news/us ... es-by-2015

Here is the key sentence it says on page report JOE 29 2010.

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Or French:

"By 2012, oil production capacity surplus could disappear completely and immediately in 2015, the production shortfall could reach almost 10 million barrels per day."

This lack means that approximately 2015 10% of the demand for black gold will not be satisfied. 2008 whereas the demand and supply were balanced and we have reached a gasoline price in Canada of $ 1,40 liter, imagine what can a shortage of 10%. A significant weakening of the economies is expected. This warning comes, do not forget, the world's biggest oil consumer, the US Army. Here is what we read in the report on the consequences of this shortage:

"While it is difficulty to predict PRECISELY what economic, political, and strategic effects Such a shortfall might Produce Surely it Would Reduce the prospects for growth in Both Developed and the Developing worlds. Such an economic slowdown Would --other exacerbate unresolved tensions, push brittle and failing states further Top Down The Path Toward collapse, and Perhaps-have serious economic impact on Both China and India. At best, It Would Lead to Periods of harsh economic adjustment. "

In French

"Although it is difficult to accurately predict the economic, political, and strategic such a deficit may occur, it would certainly reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing countries than in developed countries. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile states routed further towards collapse, and possibly lead to serious economic impact on China and India. At best, it would lead to difficult economic adjustment periods. "

You should know also that the former GM Chairman Rick Wagoner told the 2008 in Detroit that had now exceeded the Planet oil production capacity and in December 2009, during the presentation of the Prius Plug, vice president of Toyota showed in his presentation a production and demand curve for oil on which one could see that the Japanese company anticipated a production deficit of 4 million barrels per day in 2015. Here also, to this effect, one of the slides of my lecture "Driving without oil."

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The warning from the US Army is certainly not to be taken lightly, especially as already 2005 the Pentagon commissioned a study on peak oil "The Hirsch Report" and they have always followed the issue closely .

Now, in Quebec, when the oil barrel is $ 100 (it is currently $ 81, and rose up in 144 2008 $), it sends about 8 billion ($ 8 billion) per year in outside of Quebec to buy oil to satisfy our road transport. In 200 $ per barrel is $ 16 G which flies to distant countries and weakens our economy. To put this amount, just to realize that the current budget of the Ministry of Education of Quebec is 14 G $! So we exceed it. Here is another slide of my lecture to illustrate the situation.

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By 10 years, one could even exceed the health budget, if the price of oil triple!

Given the magnitude of what is coming, we can not put our heads in the sand. It is now midnight and five, and must QUICKLY implement incentive policies to increase the supply of public transport, to help purchase new hybrid vehicles and plug-mainly all-electric (via a fair system of bonus malus) validate the devices after sales reducing fuel consumption, promote the production of components and converting conventional vehicles ...

Moreover, time is no longer the outrageous spending in unprofitable megaprojects like a bullet train that would engulf 15 20 to G $ for Quebec alone, while empty wheelchair at 3 / 4 most of the time. We also need to stop spending on hydrogen, which leads nowhere. To this end, it is deplorable that the Quebec government wants to further promote this technology at the airport Pierre Eliot Trudeau of Montreal. An aberration! For more information on the ineffectiveness of the hydrogen sector, I refer you to extract thematic "Hydrogen" My Newsletter Transport 21, at the following address

http://web.mac.com/pierrelanglois/PLang ... ort21.html

Unfortunately, many business people and politicians are still confused regarding sustainable transport of the future, and too inclined to listen to the lobbies. Moreover, the general population is also very little informed.

If you can help to disseminate information and to explain to those around you the very important issues of this email and their solutions, I encourage you to do. Together we will get there! :-)


Sincerely

Pierre Langlois, Ph.D.
Physicist: consultant / author
Site Internet: http://www.planglois-pca.com


ps: the 21 transportation issues are also available here Transport-21-engine-fuel-and-cars-the-future-close-t8306.html
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by dirk pitt » 21/04/10, 10:49

since the time that we told you!
once past peak production, oil extraction will decrease approximately 4% per year. is geological, nothing can be done.
at the beginning of this phase, as the request does not fall immediately, the shortfall between supply and demand can become quite large, and it causes a crisis, demand fall, balance was pretty much the offer, etc. ..
Today, power consumption of oil is about 85M of barrels / day
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by Christophe » 21/04/10, 10:56

Ben whoui but we are stubborn! : Mrgreen:
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by Obamot » 21/04/10, 11:38

Stubborn, but "They do not say everything to us...!"

From what I had seen (during "very serious" broadcasts on TSR). Peak oil will not happen like that. The arrival at the peak followed by its downward curve will be much longer (very long) and the price of the barrel will gradually rise further, which will make profitable huge oil fields mixed with different sediments that were not extracted. until then because deemed unusable. However, some of these deposits are said to be enormous.

Even so, we cannot deny that "peak oil" will sooner or later be a reality. This whole affair will above all be surrounded by gigantic stock market speculation. Because on the one hand it is not sure that a single generation is enough to even pass the peak (one or two centuries? Only the big companies know a bit ...) and on the other hand, the oil companies themselves will not fail to convert into other lucrative niches ...

On the other hand there are other vectors of "change": it seems to me that consumer pressure towards "clean" cars (Are they ... that's another matter), for there during the rise of hybrid cars, the potential gigantic projects type DesertecThe fact that we speak of warming and that populations have fearBut above global political instability around this issue since 9 / 11, and the emergence of new "nuclear" countries are as many lever arms against the "hawks" who push for relatively powerful changes in society unlike the "peak oil" itself, which is surrounded by extreme opacity or even omerta. Indeed, if the "dove" solutions that we know were implemented to get us out of oil, it would be necessary ... for certain groups to "lower their arms" and there are "hawks" who are not Okay.

If we wanted the end of the oil wars, the "doves that are in us would have to wake up ..." :?
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by Christophe » 21/04/10, 12:08

The debate on peakoil is endless and especially based on theories and figures "that we want to give us" ...

In short, having precision in peakoil dating is illusory ... nobody knows, we can just establish a "trend"!

Is this news item related to the information of this?

To reduce its environmental footprint, the US Army goes green

water purification systems using solar energy to biofuel fighters, the US military is stepping up efforts to reduce its environmental footprint, according to a US report released Tuesday.

The Department of Defense, leading consumer of fuel in the world and account for 80% in the energy consumption of the US government as a whole, draws its energy mainly hydrocarbons, says a report by the Pew Research Center. But in this area, a wind of change blows all the corps.

(...)

The Navy is in turn given to replace by 2020 half its fuel used on land and at sea by something other than hydrocarbons, said Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus during a press conference after the report was published.

The Navy will also test this week a "Green Hornet", an F18 fighter jet powered by a mixture of camelina, a plant of the mustard family, and kerosene, he said.

“Unlike the first generation of corn ethanol fuel, camelina is a plant that can be grown alternately with something like wheat without setting the soil fallow,” said Mabus. He added that the production of such a plant "would thus not weigh too much in the food chain while providing a new crop for American farmers."

The Marine Corps, which works with the Army, himself has used insulating foams in its temporary structures installed in Iraq to reduce energy consumption 75%.


http://www.lesechos.fr/depeches/science ... 246269.htm

Quite the coup of thermal insulation was thinking ... : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:
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by yoananda » 21/04/10, 12:23

Peak oil crude reached averité the US energy agency
http://contreinfo.info/article.php3?id_article=3017

Obama wants to revive offshore drilling (Coincidentally)
http://fr.wikinews.org/wiki/%C3%89tats- ... age_en_mer

World Oil Capacity to Peak in 2010 Petrobras CEO Says
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6169

World crude oil output peak a decade May Earlier Than Some predict
American Chemical Society by press release

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/51904

and especially :
Washington considers a decline of world oil production from 2011
http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2010/03/ ... r-de-2011/

Knowing that oil production has stagnated 84 million barrels per day since 5 years already !!!

For me, we are clearly there!
If they speak about it "officially", it is because there is no more way to hide it.
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by Remundo » 21/04/10, 12:45

dirk pitt wrote:since the time that we told you!
once past peak production, oil extraction will decrease approximately 4% per year. is geological, nothing can be done.
at the beginning of this phase, as the request does not fall immediately, the shortfall between supply and demand can become quite large, and it causes a crisis, demand fall, balance was pretty much the offer, etc. ..
Today, power consumption of oil is about 85M of barrels / day

I agree with the direction of Dirk Pitt and Yoananda ...

Moreover, until further notice, the peak date in 2008 88 mbpd (million barrels per day) and we are now on the undulating plateau.

Also note that the uncertainties data on the estimated future productions are not now in the tens of mbpd, but unit mbpd ... is remarkable because it means that the 100 mbpd CLAMES qq years ago as easy to reach to meet growing demand will most likely never happen ... : Idea:
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by Obamot » 21/04/10, 13:08

Well then ...! What are they waiting for it put? : Shock: : Shock: : Shock:

They do not have enough "brain", there is here ...? : Mrgreen: : Cheesy: "Yaka" ask : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:

[paranoid mode: "ON"]

... aaaah yes, but if "THE" solution arrives on a plateau we could not speculate too much ...

.... And then then there would be no "threat" permanent and could no longer sell our weapons abroad to monetize our own production to ensure "internal security" is ... annoying ...

... And it will find other ways to "contain populations" ... not able to reason through them yourself is not it ....

... thus there is the risk of seeing the emergence of solar power plants powerful enough to make emerging countries "independent" from an energy point of view ... even more annoying, they could well then turn to "self-sufficiency" ... and no longer exporting their raw materials ... what would become of the "lifestyle" of society oxydental...

You do not think! What do you want? The revolution? : Mrgreen:
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by Remundo » 21/04/10, 14:37

This article summarizes the situation (in English)

Few people are aware of the problem.

The peak oil, and especially the post peak oil period is tomorrow ... today.

The world is like a car launched at full speed that does not see the invisible wall in front of her.

But some see the ... rare.
July 2008

At this point, the oil age will be closing down. Worldwide Production Will Be Declining Rapidly through a combination of lower demand and Then depletion. In four years sustainable generation capacity is Likely to be down from 87 million b / d to the vicinity of 80 million. In 10 or 15 years world output is Likely to be in the vicinity of 50 million b / d and by mid-century gold 20 30 million.

By the end of the century, Oil Production Will Be Nearly gone and will be restricted to high-value uses for qui there is no alternative. Future generations will adopt Either alternative forms of energy, far more efficient machinery, or do without. And it all started last July.


What is fascinating is the enormous contrast between global energy structures that fit snugly on the models glorious 30 (oil and cheap coal and endless) and the situation of imminent shortage (on the scale of a decade or two), which technically is unquestionable and application modernization and complete reorientation of the energy mix.

And yet, nobody seems to understand this contrast, and intensity of its consequences :
1) greatest economic earthquake in history
2) that will involve the very poor (Obamot evokes)
3) but also very good: the revolution massive renewable energy and energy efficiency ...

Unfortunately, the oil depletion will temporarily bring about the boom in gas, coal and nuclear power, of which everyone knows the ecological "qualities" ...

an entire program.
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by yoananda » 21/04/10, 15:36

@Remundo

http://contreinfo.info/article.php3?id_article=2792
http://contreinfo.info/article.php3?id_article=1358

Robert Hirsch gives a very interesting insight:
Robert Hirsch is a senior energy specialist who has worked throughout his career in various sectors of the industry, first as a servant of the state, and private. Mr. Hirsch is the initiative of a famous study on peak oil 2005 published by the Ministry of Energy of USA (DOE). Responding to questions by Steve Andrew, to ASPO, he looks back on his career, the circumstances of the publication of the report of the DOE, and the reaction to the less embarrassed the authorities with the results of his study. Mr. Hirsch estimated that between 10 and 20 years will be needed to make the infrastructure changes, equipment, processes and ways of life that will be required with the increasing scarcity of oil. After several years of studying this issue, it now believes that we have less than five years before world oil production begins to decline, causing certainly a major recession. It is time, he said, that politicians have the courage to face the bad news from the energy sector and finally dare tackle this issue head on.


I think he's an "optimist", he speaks to leaders and can't be too alarmist. I am more severe than him.

But sleep-and-now, we 20 years late. So the worst case is launched.
Fasten your seatbelt.
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