ABN the 11 / 12 / 2007 12h45
Focus: Diesel, the Trojan horse of inflation?
Much is said about fluctuations in the price of gasoline, but quite rarely those of diesel. This is paradoxical insofar as the macroeconomic impact of the latter is undoubtedly much more decisive. Indeed, an increase in the price of gasoline does not necessarily spread throughout the economic fabric; for one of two things: either consumers can respond to an increase in the price of gasoline by reducing their consumption (resulting in a marginal economic impact), or they cannot adjust their consumption; but, in an environment where purchasing power is stagnating (in the best of cases ...), they then have no alternative but to consume less other goods and services; in other words, the inflationary shock of the rise in the price of gasoline is largely offset by the sluggishness hitting other sectors in return ...
The problem of diesel is very different: indeed, it directly impacts the price of almost all the products we consume, since it is necessary to route the latter from producers to consumers. However, in the United States, diesel supplies 95% of domestic freight ... The current surge in the price of diesel can therefore have devastating economic effects: in fact, either producers cannot pass on the sale price. rise in diesel and it is then the very existence of entire supply chains that is called into question; either they are able to do so (with, let us emphasize, a delay of several months in general) and it is then a nagging inflation which spreads throughout the economic fabric...
And we are not even talking about the endless Asian exports, which have to be transported by freighters, which do not really run on solar energy or oar, until further notice at least...
In the end, it is not that stagflation seems inevitable for Western economies, but a little anyway ...
If only it could slow the explosion of offshoring to Asia, it would be beneficial for the planet ...... but do not dream, they have built gigantic container ships which reduce the impact of costs transport.
On the other hand, the impact of road transport could be faster (moreover, Italian truckers are on strike because their diesel is more expensive than French + 6% and that Spanish + 20% !!).
There will soon be a road transport "war" in Europe with lower wages for drivers. in fact, in 2009 all Europeans will be able to offer their service in all countries; therefore drivers from very poorly paid Eastern countries will invade Western Europe.
