Spent oil PeakOil 2005, 2015 depletion?

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Christophe
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Spent oil PeakOil 2005, 2015 depletion?




by Christophe » 21/12/11, 10:16

Long live the crises?

Bonjour à tous

Replying to Exxon's report on the future of energy (last email), especially the future of oil production, Olivier Rech, who worked on the scenarios oil tankers from the International Energy Agency (IEA) from 2006 to 2009. He left the IEA and now advises investment funds. According to him, global production has already reached a plateau at 82 million barrels per day (Mb / d), since 2005, and will start to decline after 2015. Production will never reach the 95 Mb / d and higher planned by the IEA. See: http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/12/ ... -lenergie/

Shell Chairman Peter Voser also shook Wall Street's walls when he told the Financial Times last September (21 September 2011):

"Existing field production declines by 5% a year as reserves are depleted, so the world would need to add the equivalent of four Saudi Arabia (sic) or ten North Seas in the ten next few years just to maintain supply at its current level, even before any increase in demand. "

See: http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/09/ ... ci-a-2020/

So, one wonders what it really is. Do the oil companies have the advantage of dangling disaster scenarios? We could say yes a priori, to raise prices. But in doing so they are pushing governments and auto companies to push alternative technologies faster (electrification of transport), which goes against their interests, and explain that Exxon wants to calm the game with "ultra optimistic" forecasts. ".

One thing is certain, the faster you get rid of oil and the better.

Sincerely

Pierre Langlois, Ph.D.


Interview of the world: http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/12/ ... -lenergie/


The oil will decline shortly after 2015, according to a former expert of the International Energy Agency

Olivier Rech developed the oil scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) for three years, until 2009. He currently advises large investment funds on behalf of La Française AM, a Parisian asset manager.

His predictions on the future of world oil production are today much more pessimistic than those published by the IEA ...

Olivier Rech, head of oil issues at 2006's International Energy Agency at 2009.

What are your forecasts ? Let's start with the producer countries outside OPEC [which represent 58% of extractions and 23% of world reserves].

Outside OPEC, things are clear: on 40 million barrels per day (Mb / d) of conventional oil extracted from existing fields, we are facing an annual decline of the order of 1 to 2 Mb / d.

In your opinion, are we therefore close to the decline of 5% per year of the existing production mentioned by Shell?

Yes, that's about it.

And for the production of OPEC countries [42% of extractions and 77% of world reserves]?

It's harder to say, the data is still opaque, we stay in the fog. I note, however, that the Barclays and Goldman Sachs banks believe that OPEC's unused production capacity, particularly that of Saudi Arabia, is much smaller than what is officially announced.

Many new production projects are currently under development. What to expect

Indeed, there are new projects off Brazil, Ghana and Guyana. The Gulf of Mexico is still far from exhausted. The Arctic is more uncertain, but there is real potential for natural gas. However, it will take another decade to see a significant output, possibly oil.

So the peak and the decline in world oil production is when, in your opinion?

It is always difficult to advance a specific date. The recovery rates of existing fields are increasing. In the United States, production on land is declining very slowly (it must be said that they are drilling like crazy there). It is a mistake to underestimate the know-how of drilling engineers.

Given all these factors that can delay a decline, what is your conclusion?

We will certainly remain below the 95 Mb / d for all conventional and unconventional oils.

So you're a lot more alarmist than the IEA and Total, the most pessimistic of the oil companies, who talks about the possibility of keeping production on a plateau around 95 Mb / d up to 2030.

That's right. The production is already on a plateau since 2005, around 82 Mb / d. It seems to me impossible to go much further. Since the demand, it, should continue to rise (except, perhaps, if the crisis is gaining the emerging economies), I expect to see the first tensions by 2013-2015.

After that ?

Then, in my opinion, it will be a decline in production over the 2015 period at 2020. A decline not necessarily fast elsewhere, but a decline, it seems clear.



You say "not necessarily fast". Why ?

Everything will depend on the pace at which non-conventional oil chains will be able to develop. The conversion of coal and natural gas into liquid fuel will remain infinitesimal. For first generation biofuels, I think we are already close to the maximum limit. As for the second generation, we are still at the stage of industrial pilots. To achieve a significant worldwide production, 2,5 Mb / d put, it will take another quarter of a century.

All this will be insufficient to offset the decline of existing conventional oil fields, do you think?

Insufficient, yes.


But why it must always be ex, retired, old ... who speak (with frankness?)? : Cheesy: : Idea: :?:
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by St1ngy » 26/12/11, 18:46

History to add to the confusion:

There was a book on oil in Iraq:

http://www.fuelonthefire.com/uploads/fi ... ow-res.pdf

Image

and who claims that the contracts negotiated by BP & CNPC risk being constrained by maximum production quotas style OPEC because according to experts the market could only absorb 5 to 7 of the 12 million barrels per day that the Iraqi subsoil could release by 2017.

see :

http://www.fuelonthefire.com/uploads/fi ... ow-res.pdf

It also details the main reason for the invasion of Iraq: namely oil and not arms and involvement of BP because they did not want the contracts negotiated under Saddam by Total Fina Elf to make the first group world oil. Imagine the level.

Then we can ask what turns of put3s they could play to get the Olympics 2012.
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by sen-no-sen » 26/12/11, 18:55

St1ngy wrote:
It also details the main reason for the invasion of Iraq: namely oil and not arms and involvement of BP because they did not want the contracts negotiated under Saddam by Total Fina Elf to make the first group world oil. Imagine the level.



: Shock: Oh, he attacked Iraq for oil!
I thought it was for democracy, love, freedom, it's really a blow! : Mrgreen:

The peak oil has been crossed in 2008, the current crisis is the result of that, when we see the impact of a virtual crisis on the real world I dare not imagine the consequences of the many future oil crises: international conflicts, Famines, Terrorism, World War?
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Re: PeakOil tanker switched to 2005, depletion in 2015?




by FPLM » 26/12/11, 21:04

Christophe wrote:Long live the crises?
...
But why it must always be ex, retired, old ... who speak (with frankness?)? : Cheesy: : Idea: :?:


Well, when there will be barbaric restructuring and forgotten retreats, there will be many elders who will have a lot of information to disclose. Patience, 2012 is coming already. : Mrgreen:
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by FPLM » 26/12/11, 21:06

World War? Given the consumption of the hunters, tanks and all the techno equipment of the infantry, it will be short. : Cheesy:
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by jlt22 » 26/12/11, 21:49

If the oil is in decline, the gas would move towards its golden age according to the same IEA:

The International Energy Agency announces the "golden age" of gas
Meeting at the OECD headquarters in Paris 18 and 19 October at a ministerial conference, the International Energy Agency encouraged investors to turn to what it announces to be the potential energy of the future: gas.


source:
http://www.actu-environnement.com/ae/news/gaz-energie-avenir-13939.php4#xtor=ES-6
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by Ahmed » 26/12/11, 21:55

@ FPLM: recent wars tend more towards civil wars, where the mass use of the big material is unsuitable ...

@ Sen-no-sen, you write:
... when we see the impact of a virtual crisis on the real world, I dare not imagine the consequences of the many future oil crises ...

I grant you that the debt crisis is virtual, but it is the virtuality of the economy that really conditions our lives, and that in a way as real as raw materials.
I would say the same more realif we want to consider that it is only through the medium-money that we have access to them.
Last edited by Ahmed the 27 / 12 / 11, 22: 17, 1 edited once.
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by FPLM » 26/12/11, 21:56

Propaganda!
We must reassure the markets, especially since it is the same who exploit gas and oil.
I do not believe that salvation is in the gas ... :|
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by Ahmed » 27/12/11, 22:44

I do not believe that salvation is in the gas ...

As soon as the failure of an energy (oil in this case) is sufficiently obvious, the transfer to other fossil fuels will provoke a domino effect by a faster withdrawal of the resource (only slowed if the stocks are higher than planned?).

In the event of a major economic crisis, the oil depletion would however go unnoticed ... :frown:
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by Remundo » 27/12/11, 23:07

To reassure you, a small video "catastrophiction"

And if the Oil ran out?

If the approach is a bit excessive and virtual (stopping the oil overnight), the oil dependence highlighted is all too real ...

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