The return of real estate, finally the prices drop!

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The return of real estate, finally the prices drop!




by Christophe » 28/08/08, 11:20

Real estate is falling ... well, it is stagnating but it is called a "decline" for developers and real estate professionals.

Those who think that I am exaggerating only have to speak with an agent of the profession ... or watch reports ... they earn 5 times more than the oil tanker per employee, their market is purely virtual, it's not regulated: the prices are fixed at the dice ... (or almost) but obviously always on the rise ... except now or it stagnates then they cry ...

A hard return to earth

Struck by the funding crisis, the real estate market has suffered a serious brake throughout France. Many owners have to lower their claims in order to sell. But demand remains strong

The year started off badly for Nicolas, who cannot sell his apartment in the 9th arrondissement of Paris, displayed at 400 euros: “I bought it that price and I absolutely have to sell it, because I have bought another one in the meantime. " He is not the only one. According to some professionals, two borrowers in five bridge loans are in his case. Clinging to sales prices now unsuited to demand. The market even seriously seized up in the first half of the year, a consequence of the wait-and-see attitude of buyers and banks: the volume of transactions fell by more than 000% compared to the same period in 10, selling times have lengthened. several weeks. The negotiation rate, which has increased slightly for six months, now reaches 2007%.

Prices are affected: after ten years of double-digit increases, for the first time the average price of old housing in France remained stable in the first half (+ 0,72% according to Century 21, + 0,9% for Fnaim). However, they fell in Marseille (-1,5%), Rennes (-2,3%) and Grenoble (-1,3%), stabilizing in Lille or Caen and still resisting in Bordeaux (+2,4, 4,1%), Strasbourg (+ 5,3%) or Lyon (+ 7,6%). With significant disparities between regions: the prices of the old fall by 6,4% in Limousin, by 9,2% in the Pays de la Loire, but go up by 60% in Lorraine, while they remained stable in the Center and the Alps, in the Southeast and in Ile-de-France. Paris continues to be an exception to the rule. 86 days are enough to sell a property in the capital, against 1,4 on average in the rest of France. Over six months, according to the notaries of Ile-de-France, Parisian prices are still trending upwards (+ XNUMX%).

The average amount of an acquisition even exceeds the 300 euro mark for a 000m46. However, across the region, sales volume fell 2% in the first quarter. And in the suburbs, the decline began in more than 8,8% of Ile-de-France municipalities. Beyond that, the fall in prices could reach up to 80% in the large peripheries, now penalized by the rise in gasoline prices. Demand should naturally refocus around the areas served by public transport.


Continuation and end: http://hebdo.nouvelobs.com/hebdo/paruti ... terre.html
Last edited by Christophe the 06 / 04 / 12, 09: 24, 2 edited once.
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by gilgamesh » 28/08/08, 13:02

Well, it is on that it is very serious what is happening in this sense and I note above all the complicity of the state in all this history which makes it impunity operate these people even if they ruin the whole economy with these operations. In Portugal they even lend money at 50 - with interest at the start - this means that young people, instead of paying off their debt, are increasingly owing money to the bank to pay it off more late when they have the best possibility - but unfortunately this is not the case in many cases. Even a couple working both with reasonable sailors can no longer pay the prices practiced with a lifetime of hard work.
In Spain they have already invented the reverse mortgage - this means that after a life in misery to try to pay the bank they are loaned a bit of money against new loans on their property which the bank will later confiscate. They're going to have spent a whole life pissing off for nothing and feeding men who don't even deserve that name. I often remember the Asterix book on the rise in real estate in Rome just before the fall and I think there is nothing better to illustrate.
The European central bank is injecting billions into Spanish banks to prevent the whole system from collapsing - but precisely all these attempts only make the problem this turns out to be even more serious as we can easily see in the USA - because precisely it only perpetuates these perverse mentality which are at the origin of this whole crisis. It is precisely not necessary to save when there is nothing to save ............
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by Christophe » 28/08/08, 13:07

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by Bibiphoque » 28/08/08, 13:22

Hello,
I have lived in the same building for almost 20 years, it was sold three times over this period, a first time just before I moved in, sold at 4.000.000 fb, once a decade after, around 7.000.000 .500.000 fb and here for the moment, the owner wants to sell it around 650.000 € (he tried XNUMX but nobody wanted it)
It gives you an idea of ​​the pluvalue during this period.

It is an old apartment building (early 1900) with 6 very average dwellings, not very good quality of materials and "noisy" neighbors

I find the prices outrageous for buildings of this poor quality.
@+
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by gilgamesh » 28/08/08, 13:24

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by Christophe » 28/08/08, 13:26

Uh for non Belgian not used to Fb I remember that the ration € / Fb is about 40.

So the 2 prices given by Bibiphoque are therefore: € 100 and € 000 ...

Now if it was 20 years ago, you have to compensate for these figures by inflation (including rising wages) over the same period ...

In this case this increase does not seem to me too exaggerated. To see how it has evolved in the last few years?
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by crispus » 28/08/08, 13:35

Oops, a lot of posts appeared while I was writing mine, I still leave it ...

Real estate prices (purchase or rent) are completely decorrelated from average income: this is called a speculative bubble.

In France real estate has a price of 140% increase since 1998, in the meantime the minimum wage must have increased by 20 or 25%? Let us add that the minimum wage is regularly reassessed, while "higher" wages have almost stagnated in recent years. What some call the "smicardisation" of employees

The Friggit tunnel, showing the revenue / price ratio per m² is sufficiently explicit:
Image

This phenomenon is global: real estate was presented as a "safe haven" to Westerners worried about their pensions, which inflated demand and caused prices to soar. The concrete block has become a "philosopher's stone", which itself turns into gold : Lol:

The low interest rate policy (FED, ECB, etc.) generating "free agent" at a cost sometimes lower than inflation, encouraged speculation at all costs and favored the emergence of many raptors, self-proclaimed promoters, agents. real estate, estate advisers or other property dealers. The same phenomenon as at the time of the internet bubble where anyone improvised as a trader or launched his "start-up" with the money of others : Lol:.

With a difference in size:
- The internet bubble has eaten away at savings, leaving investors at zero.
-The housing bubble has generated long-term debt (20 to 30 years), and it will take many years to turn the economy around. The decrease has already started ...

The problem is that at current prices, no one, even wealthy households, can finance their main residence with their sole salary: the only people who are currently buying are those who have a real estate gain to "reinvest", or rather to blaze in the real estate. The current market is dead.

Ask a seller the question "Could you buy your own house at the price you are asking for?" The answer is no.

The big losers in this frenzy are those who bought at variable rates over 30 years (at least 20% of borrowers in 2006) with the intention of reselling in 5 years to buy bigger.
They are promised "negative equity", ie they will owe their bank more capital than the resale value of their property. In the event of a sudden change of situation: transfer, unemployment, divorce ... This is guaranteed over-indebtedness.

In the US, UK or Spain the real estate crisis is already there. In France, we are told that "it's not the same": remember Chernobyl:
Image

There is indeed a huge difference: if American banks have gone bankrupt, the French economy is better protected.

Indeed :
- Mortgage credit does not exist: a French person cannot offer his house as collateral to buy a television. Many Americans are homeless because they wanted to change cars without being able to afford it. All the countries practicing this "cavalry" have entered a recession.

On the other hand :
- An American in difficulty of payment sees his house seized by the bank, but then HE CAN GO TO ZERO, preferably by changing state.

- A French person in difficulty of payment will see his house seized (he has moreover paid a "mortgage guarantee" in this sense), but he will be required to PAY UNTIL THE END OF ITS DAYS to reimburse the bank for the remaining capital of the, accompanied by various surcharges: interest on delays, bailiff fees, etc.

And we were careful not to explain it to borrowers! Real estate agents, notaries and other bankers have largely failed in their "duty of advice" in this matter ...

View site http://www.bulle-immobiliere.org and his forum to understand the mechanisms of real estate and finance.
Its webmaster, Jean Michel Pouré, tried to alert public opinion in 2005 without success. Remember that TF1 belongs to a developer, and that the "ruling class" lives heavily on rental property, rents having followed the purchase price of housing. This explains that. : Evil:

In short, the price of real estate is expected to fall by 30% minimum in the years to come. For the record, between 1990 and 1998 the price per m² had dropped by 40% in Paris.

If you are thinking of buying, "wait for the sales". Personally, I expect the "second markdown" within 2 years, when the slump will be well established and the sellers ready to sell at 50% below the current price.

Put aside: "as in the past" The banks will require a substantial contribution (10% minimum) whereas before they lent for the entire operation.
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by Christophe » 28/08/08, 14:13

ImageImage Crispus!

Crispus wrote:The Friggit tunnel, showing the revenue / price ratio per m² is sufficiently explicit


Uh very interesting but a bit bigger it would have been even more ... I found it hold:
Image
With the added bonus:
Image
Last edited by Christophe the 28 / 08 / 08, 14: 21, 1 edited once.
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by Matt113 » 28/08/08, 14:18

this is the limit that I gave myself to buy too, not for two years : Cheesy:

By cons on our side I see more and more house already falling, I saw decreases from 10000 to 30000 € on some houses that would have left several months ago without problem at their starting price.
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by crispus » 28/08/08, 14:22

Thank you Christophe,

Otherwise I had this:
http://www.bulle-immobiliere.org/drupal/graphique-immobilier-france-tunnel-de-friggit
In normal times, the evolution of real estate prices remains confined in a "Friggit tunnel", oscillating by plus or minus 10% around a historical trend (average).

As can be seen from this graph, a first bubble burst in 1990-1991. Then house prices started to rise again in 1997 to cross the upward tunnel in 2001. We also note that this bubble is much more significant in intensity. Indeed, unlike the years 1990-1991 where only the city of Paris was concerned (also some places on the Côte d'Azur), the current bubble concerns all of France.

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