Oil reserves, not glop

[Logan]

I think the info did not escape you. Needless to say what the members of this forum already know. But it is still surprising that the press speaks so little about it when the short-term consequences are enormous for our economies.

LONDON, March 4 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch / Shell, whose president, Philip Watts, resigned on Wednesday, is expected to close in a few weeks the internal investigation into the downward revision of its proven oil reserves and has mandated outside law firms to assist him, a spokesman said Thursday.

He said the group was seriously considering the possibility of a real legal battle over the revision of the reservations.

By announcing Wednesday that they had asked Watts and Walter to resign (Xetra: 775290.DE - news) van Vijver, the head of its oil and gas branch, Shell had explained that the decision of the board of directors was motivated by "des facts and circumstances "related to the revision of reservations.

"The investigation is ongoing and is expected to be completed in the next few weeks," said the spokesman. "The results will be reported to the SEC and other regulatory authorities."

The US Securities & Exchange Commission has launched a formal investigation which could lead to the initiation of formal proceedings.

The Anglo-Dutch group had surprised the financial markets, causing a sharp drop in its share price, on January 9, announcing that 20% of the so-called "proven" reserves recorded in its balance sheet now no longer had any assured commercial potential.

Some financial analysts fear that the unexpected resignations of Wednesday are the consequence drawn by the board of directors of disappointing results of the internal investigation, which would cancel the positive effect likely to be created by the replacement of Watts and his arm law.

On the London Stock Exchange, Shell action has only recorded a brief rebound Wednesday after the announcement of their departure and it sold Thursday 0,65% to finish at 381 pence.

"The Shell audit committee reviews the management of the risks and the accounts of the group and it could well have uncovered faults, which would have led it to recommend changes to the management", explains in a note of research JJ Traynor, analyst of Deutsche Bank (Xetra: 514000.DE - news).


The IASB WANTS TO REDEFINE THE CLASSIFICATION OF RESERVES

The Shell reserves business therefore rebounds even as the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) is working to redefine the classification of gas and oil reserves, which could lead to a change in practices in force throughout the country. sector.

Project teams within the organization responsible for setting international accounting standards are expected to issue a progress report next month, says the IASB, which works in coordination with the SEC.

"It is unlikely that we will come up with competing definitions, even if national authorities in the United States, Europe or elsewhere have of course the right to impose their own requirements," Robert Garnett, a board member, told Reuters. administration of the IASB.

For the time being, oil and gas companies must classify, based on "reasonable certainty", the commercial viability of their reserves as "proven", "probable" or "possible". But this classification leaves the field open to interpretation and therefore to the skepticism of analysts.

The redefinition project was launched in 2000 by the IASC, the predecessor of the IASB, and the latter believes that its first conclusions should not be published for a year.

Shell is not the only company to have re-qualified part of its reserves: the American El Paso (NYSE: EP - news) recently announced that it had reduced by 41% its estimates of proven reserves of natural gas. /MY

[Dearcham]

Indeed, everyone has been telling us for years that "we are approaching peak oil". According to a lot of sources (conferences on climate at the city of sciences, s & v on energy issues, the docs on this site .. .) there is a good chance that it is already exceeded.
What could be more natural, after all for these large groups, than to cling desperately to the chicken with black eggs, even if it means cheating on the quantities.

The following article is not frankly gay either; after 79 had been reactive (creation of nuclear power plants, drastic measures to reduce energy consumption, notably by the introduction of new insulation standards). I am afraid that today the state continues to buy oil at any price without taking concrete action.

After all the debates on the energy future took place last year? ;)


WASHINGTON (AFP) - Crude oil prices soared to their highest level in more than thirteen years on Wednesday, in a market made nervous by the terrorist attacks in Madrid and excessively tight stocks in the United States.
The price of a barrel of crude for April delivery ended at $ 38,18 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), its highest close since October 16, 1990, before the start of the Gulf War.
The announcement Wednesday of a slight increase in crude stocks last week in the United States by the Department of Energy did not calm the buying spree.

"It is a combination of concerns over supplies and terrorism," said Marshall Steeves, an analyst at Refco, referring to the Madrid bombings that left 201 dead and raised the specter of new attacks.

"It is a combination of the usual culprits that exacerbated the situation," said Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer House.

"Obviously the bomb attacks in Madrid increased the likelihood of similar attacks and that scared the markets," he added.

US Treasury Secretary John Snow worried about the price of a barrel, which is "unwelcome" and acts as "tax", in an interview on CNBC television on Wednesday.

Uncertainties about what the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will decide to do from April 1, either to lower production as planned or to keep its quotas as they are in the face of rising prices, also contribute to the market malaise.

"OPEC has not yet cut production significantly, but it promises to do so and the market is taking that into account," said Mr. Steeves.

And rising stocks in the United States "just give us a little leeway, it doesn't change anything," said Mike Fitzpatrick, analyst at Fimat.

The market is also currently very concerned about the level of gasoline stocks, at their lowest since the end of November 2003, as the summer vacation and car travel season approaches.

Gasoline demand remained higher than normal during the winter, leading to record pump prices recently.

"As long as the economy is doing well and demand (for crude oil) remains solid, prices will stay high," said Fitzpatrick.

"Just look at the figures for China. And economic activity is also solid in the European Union and the United States," said analyst Fimat.

Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised up its estimate of growth in Chinese oil demand in 2004 from 230.000 bpd to 580.000 bpd.

For Marshall Steeves of Refco, "the price trend is still going up".

"We could go as high as $ 40, maybe not before the April contract expires on Monday. But over the next few weeks," he said.

But once at 40 dollars, the market should find it difficult to support its growth, while demand generally falls in the second quarter, at the end of winter in the northern hemisphere and before the peak in gasoline demand. , according to Marshall Steeves.

"Based on the stock figures, I can easily justify a barrel at 30 dollars. But I can not justify 37-38 dollars. It just seems very, very high," concluded Bill O'Grady , analyst at AG Edwards.

[Rulian]

I heard, in a discussion with a friend, that fabulous reserves have been discovered in recent months in the great Russian spaces. It would more than more than compensate for the decline in oil in the Middle East, breathing new life into the oil age for several more decades (still according to this person).
Not to mention China, which remains almost unexplored in terms of oil.

What about real, does anyone know how to check?

Rulian

[Christophe]

Maybe info to check .. (how? ... by searching well on the internet it can be findable) .... but already you should know that Russia even become capitalist will tend to keep this oil for herself. ( cf tchetchenie !!) ..or at least the oriental world (China precisely) then the quality of Russian oil has nothing to do with that of the Middle East (almost petrol in crude) ... therefore cost of higher transformation, pb linked to climate etc etc ...

I think that it is methane hydrate and natural gas quite simply which will be the successor of black gold .... 300 years of proven reserve for GN ... not to mention hydrate ... .

[Dearcham]

Here is a brief summary (without any pretension other than very comprehensive info) of the issues related to resources on the Russian side.
Russia, the world's second largest oil producer (7,59 MBJ in 2002 or 10,7% of production) is picking up again after its setbacks in 1998 (petroleum crack)
3 large private companies share the Lukoil and Yukos-Sibneft cake (around 20% each of Russian production), as well as the more modest TNK which has benefited greatly from privatization (buyout at half price of another average company)
The reserves are uncertain (7.5 to 15% worldwide, which leaves a large margin of uncertainty), but nevertheless abundant.
The local consumption is not folichone (the crisis does not really help) The biggest concern will be to manage to export this oil to 3 major destinations
USA
Europe (EU + CIS)
China (emerging country therefore potentially greedy)
The major problem: investments (pipelines the biggest worries, training, modernizations)

The US did not just drop bombs in Iraq (in which Russian companies were very well established) and created GUUAM (Georgia,
Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova) in the 90s. They offer a partnership for peace and quietly set up some strategic bases

The towers follow one another: Putin strengthens the organization of Shanghai (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan (the most difficult and the most profitable), Tajikistan, China and Russia) (yes Uzbekistan changes hands)
The US had already created an important trade route and is putting pressure on the countries it crosses to join NATO
However, construction of the east-west pipeline between Baku and Ceyhan [in Turkey] is underway. It will be the second Caspian oil pipeline that does not pass through Russia.
Russia will try to win back the CIS countries "threatened" by the situation in Iraq, with its support.
Latest round: The United States succeeds in signing financing agreements for the future Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, in the amount of $ 3,6 billion.

It will then be one of the most important oil transport infrastructure in the world. However, some are already wondering if the pipeline will really be profitable. Experts say there is not enough crude oil identified at this time in the Caspian area to offset the construction and operating costs of the future pipeline.

sources:
<a href='http://www.institutidrp.org/documentation/petrole%20mer%20caspienne%20Alexandre%20Rar.pdf' target='_blank'>http://www.institutidrp.org/documentation/...andre%20Rar.pdf</a>
http://www.robert-schuman.org/Synth97.htm