Depletion: oil shortage early in 2015?

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dirk pitt
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by dirk pitt » 31/01/16, 22:33

some only know how to exist by provocation.
perhaps they find there a certain enjoyment.
I will not give them the pleasure of answering them with other provocations.
then enjoy
and stay curious.
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by Macro » 01/02/16, 18:22

All normal with the decline of the Chinese economy ....

FYI the redemption price of used scrap was divided by 10en 18 months ... Past 150 € the end ton 2014 has 15 € in December 2015 ...


They also know how to close the taps .... For the moment they have not made plans of closure ... But will not be deprived of it the good moment arrived ...
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by dirk pitt » 02/02/16, 13:10

facts, nothing but facts:
the 4 biggest fields of shale oil in the USA have passed their peak of current production 2015.
ET
the 4 biggest fields of shale gas in the USA have passed their peak of current production 2015. (to be confirmed for Eagle Ford and Marcellus)
(EIA info)
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by sen-no-sen » 02/02/16, 13:42

Good note Dirk!

The paradox of the current situation is that the price of crude has never been so low in 5 years despite the fact that there has never been so little oil on earth (logic ... somewhat set aside by our media).

If the price of oil were correlated with factors of physical reality rather than speculative factors, we should have a barrel over $ 400!

The pic is anyway behind us ..., despite the many artifices (unconventional oil, shale and agro-fuel) set up, devices that turns against their authors ....

The fall in the price of oil shakes the United States

Several small US oil companies went bankrupt. Lower crude rates push industry players to improve the efficiency of drilling activities

https://www.letemps.ch/economie/2015/09/08/chute-prix-petrole-secoue-etats-unis

Already heavily indebted because of expensive investments in shale oil deposits, the US oil sector could suffer more. The drop in the price of crude oil could both affect gas and oil production.

http://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/cercle/cercle-140364-avis-de-tempete-sur-le-secteur-petrolier-aux-etats-unis-1160772.php
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"Engineering is sometimes about knowing when to stop" Charles De Gaulle.
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by dirk pitt » 02/02/16, 14:57

sen-no-sen wrote:B

The pic is anyway behind us ..., despite the many artifices (unconventional oil, shale and agro-fuel) set up, devices that turns against their authors ....


I will not be so positive but say that for the conventional Crude + condensates, we are on a corrugated plateau which some jolts may eventually exceed the previous peak, why not.
on the other hand one is not in a logic of increase of production of the conventional ones.
besides, American shale and petroleum have had a significant impact on global production in recent years.
in the graph below from my own graphs from the EIA data, we see that the world production outside USA (world-USA in the graph) is almost stable from then 2006 and that it is the USA production that makes raise global production.

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by moinsdewatt » 02/02/16, 19:28

The overproduction of supplies drives the price of oil to a ten-year low. The imbalance between global supply and demand has caused its collapse to levels not seen for more than a decade. Global oil production will exceed consumption by an average of 1,7 million barrels per day (mb / d) in 2015, according to December estimates by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This excess supply is higher than during the Asian financial crisis and the Great Recession. OPEC has inflated the markets with nearly 1 mb / d more this year than the EIA had originally forecast in November 2014. In 2016, the global supply is expected to exceed the demand for 0,6 mb / d on average (1 chart).

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Extract of : http://lesakerfrancophone.net/les-faill ... -la-crise/
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by moinsdewatt » 28/06/18, 21:28

Oil: IEA sees supply risks in 2019

Posted on 13 / 06 / 2018 LONDON (Reuters)

Demand for oil will steadily increase in 2019 due to the strength of the global economy and significant supply difficulties may appear by the end of next year if OPEC can not address the shortage of oil. supply, estimates Wednesday the International Energy Agency (IEA).

This report sounds like a warning to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies whose ministers are meeting 22 and 23 June in Vienna to discuss their supply management agreement, which runs up to the end 2018.

According to the IEA, world oil demand is expected to increase by 1,4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, to exceed 100 million bpd by the second quarter of the year. The agency estimates that demand should grow at the same pace this year, as in its latest report.

"A strong economic environment and an assumption of price stability are important factors. The risks relate to rising prices and trade tensions. Some governments are considering measures to alleviate price pressures," said the agency based in Paris in its monthly report.

"We may revise our economic forecasts downwards in the coming months. The world economy is suffering from rising oil prices."

Oil prices have jumped by about 50%, to about 76 dollars a barrel of Brent, since OPEC and other countries led by Russia decided late November 2016 to reduce their production of 1,8 million bpd. This agreement came into force in January 2017.

At its meeting next week in Vienna, OPEC will discuss the evolution of its production, particularly in light of the prolonged declines in Venezuela and the prospect of new US sanctions against Iran.

“Even if the decline in production from Venezuela and Iran is offset, the market will be just balanced next year and vulnerable to higher prices in the event of further disruption. It is possible that the very small number of countries that have reserve capacities will have to resort to them quickly, "warns the IEA.

https://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/p ... 19.N706284
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Re: Depletion: start of oil shortage in 2015?




by moinsdewatt » 27/10/18, 09:52

100 million b / d!

Q4 and the 2019 year will see a production of 100 million barrels a day.
I see this figure as all liquids

ADNOC: The World Nears 100 Million Oil Consumption Milestone Bpd

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 24, 2018,

The Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE Minister of State and Group CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), said in a speech at the Saudi investment forum, echoing the prediction of OPEC's headline that global oil consumption would reach the 100-million-bpd mark sooner than projected.

"The global oil industry is about a million barrels of oil per day. And by 100, we forecast that global consumption will rise by one million per day, demonstrating that demand for continued hydrocarbons to gain strength amidst major market expansions and a global rising GDP, "Al Jaber said at the Future Investment Initiative Conference in Riyadh, which was shunned by many investors, bankers, and analysts over the killing of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

Like many other officials from the Middle East, Al Jaber claims that "The era of oil and gas is far from over," pointing to the expected exponential growth in petrochemicals which will be the single biggest demand for growth driver by 2050.

"Not only is petrochemical growth quickly becoming the main driver of demand, but we expect the market to grow to 40 percent by 2040," Al Jaber said.

In early September, OPEC General Secretary Mohammad Barkindo said that the world would hit the 100 million level in the fourth quarter of this year, "much sooner than projected."

Yet, OPEC has been trimming its oil demand growth forecasts in recent months.

Earlier this month, Barkindo told the crowd at an energy forum in India that OPEC 's latest Monthly Oil Market Report says that "While the global economic growth remains solid, it faces potential headwinds.

In the report, OPEC revised its claims on growth and growth for the third and third months of the year, citing potential headwinds to global economic growth in markets and weakening in emerging markets and geopolitical challenges. OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by 1.36 million bpd in 2019, a downward revision of 50,000 bpd from the September report. Global oil demand will average next year's 100.15 million bpd, according to OPEC's latest projection. For this year, the cartel cut its global oil demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd, down by 80,000 bpd from the forecast in the last month's report.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... stone.html
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Re: Depletion: start of oil shortage in 2015?




by izentrop » 03/11/18, 21:46

We can see the decline in conventional oil production since 2005.
Depletion masked by increased production of Iraq and dirty American oil.

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http://crudeoilpeak.info/what-happened- ... ak-in-2005
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Re: Depletion: start of oil shortage in 2015?




by moinsdewatt » 03/11/18, 23:18

According to the World Bank, a barrel of oil will trade on average 74 dollars in 2019

Ecofin Agency. 1 nov 2018

In 2019, oil prices are expected to average $ 74 per barrel, up slightly from the projected average of $ 72 per barrel in 2018. This is what the World Bank says in its outlook for next year's commodity markets in October.

The prices of energy products including oil, natural gas and coal that were forecast to increase 33,3% on average by 2018 compared to the previous year should stabilize globally in 2019. World demand should be maintained.

The bank therefore excludes a potential price rally to 100 dollars as forecast by many market analysts.

According to the institution, the cause of this situation will lie in the robustness of US production. It must be said that since last year, American companies involved in shale extraction have benefited from more access to credits to produce. Therefore, we should see a new boom in shale production in the United States.

At the same time, the bank expects record losses in Iran and Venezuela due respectively to US sanctions and ongoing production difficulties.

"The intensification of trade restrictions between major economies could result in significant economic losses and imbalances in global value chains," said Shanta Devarajan, Acting Chief Economist and Senior Director of the World Bank. development economy.

https://www.agenceecofin.com/trade/0111 ... rs-en-2019
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