Open question: when to consider that the COVID-19 pandemic is over and no longer requires special measures?

[GuyGadeboisTheBack]

Among the Italians, the order of doctors is revolting, with us they make the law while sucking power, just to make the government believe that the idea comes from it ....

[Janic]

GuyGadeboisLeRetour »21/12/21, 01:03

Among the Italians, the order of doctors is revolting, with us they make the law while sucking power, just to make the government believe that the idea comes from it ....

the world does not change, it repeats itself! After the king and the dominant religion, the right arm of power, the "republic" (sic) has given itself another king and the religion which claims to be "spiritual" has simply been replaced by the religion which claims to be "scientific" Where is the difference hiding?

[ABC2019]

GuyGadeboisLeRetour »21/12/21, 01:03

Among the Italians, the order of doctors is revolting, with us they make the law while sucking power, just to make the government believe that the idea comes from it ....

the world does not change, it repeats itself! After the king and the dominant religion, the right arm of power, the "republic" (sic) has given itself another king and the religion which claims to be "spiritual" has simply been replaced by the religion which claims to be "scientific" Where is the difference hiding?

yes it's true it's unbearable those who keep claiming to science to say that they hold the truth

abcon

besides the fact that I did not discuss directly with Raoult,

This is the problem, that an incompetent challenges a true scientist et the whole research team, competent them, of the IHU. But then again, the narcissist, that you are, continues to boast in the deep void of his brain absent of neurons.

[ABC2019]

Coming back to the thread issue, there are two observations that I think are interesting:

* despite the violence of the delta + omicron wave, the health system generally seems to remain quite far from saturation, even if there are localized tensions, it is not worse than during epidemics of influenza.

* influenza is making a reappearance, which means that the effective Rs for influenza and covid are close again (which was not at all the case last year). Obviously all the data show that it is thanks to the substantial effort of the French for vaccination which reaches 90% of adults. The 10% refractory benefit from the effort made by others (which they despise), but they keep an individual risk 10 times greater of landing at the hospital. Too bad for them .


All in all, we are approaching the situation where the epidemic will have become a normal seasonal disease again, and without wanting to go too far, I think that next winter will pass without any particular constraint, vaccination pass, etc. ..

[Rajqawee]

Coming back to the thread issue, there are two observations that I think are interesting:

* despite the violence of the delta + omicron wave, the health system generally seems to remain quite far from saturation, even if there are localized tensions, it is not worse than during epidemics of influenza.

* influenza is making a reappearance, which means that the effective Rs for influenza and covid are close again (which was not at all the case last year). Obviously all the data show that it is thanks to the substantial effort of the French for vaccination which reaches 90% of adults. The 10% refractory benefit from the effort made by others (which they despise), but they keep an individual risk 10 times greater of landing at the hospital. Too bad for them .


All in all, we are approaching the situation where the epidemic will have become a normal seasonal disease again, and without wanting to go too far, I think that next winter will pass without any particular constraint, vaccination pass, etc. ..

Okay, I gave the ATIH report concerning the hospitalizations (of course, from 2020, but in truth that has not changed much), and if you are not old / and or fragile, your chances of land in the hospital are lost in the noise. So vaccination can only have an interest, from a hospital point of view, for those groups most affected by the epidemic.

Then, of course, the vaccine helped (from my point of view), but oxygen therapy and other elements of care (earlier screening, etc.) also had to play. That said, at the limit, dissecting the impact of the treatment and / or the vaccine on the public really concerned is not the most important in the short term (the important thing is to save people), but it will be necessary to measure each element in the longer term.

[ABC2019]

Coming back to the thread issue, there are two observations that I think are interesting:

* despite the violence of the delta + omicron wave, the health system generally seems to remain quite far from saturation, even if there are localized tensions, it is not worse than during epidemics of influenza.

* influenza is making a reappearance, which means that the effective Rs for influenza and covid are close again (which was not at all the case last year). Obviously all the data show that it is thanks to the substantial effort of the French for vaccination which reaches 90% of adults. The 10% refractory benefit from the effort made by others (which they despise), but they keep an individual risk 10 times greater of landing at the hospital. Too bad for them .


All in all, we are approaching the situation where the epidemic will have become a normal seasonal disease again, and without wanting to go too far, I think that next winter will pass without any particular constraint, vaccination pass, etc. ..

Okay, I gave the ATIH report concerning the hospitalizations (of course, from 2020, but in truth that has not changed much), and if you are not old / and or fragile, your chances of land in the hospital are lost in the noise.

do not understand what you mean, the noise in the population is not at all the same as the noise in the services. Saturation of services is a reality measured by a signal well above statistical noise.


this curve is a real signal, it is not "noise".

So vaccination can only have an interest, from a hospital point of view, for those groups most affected by the epidemic.

provided that you know how to clearly identify what you call "the audiences most affected by the epidemic" (with an operational criterion to decide who is entitled to it or not), and then that you explain how you are going to convince this audience to get vaccinated, because among the unvaccinated, I know some at risk.

Then, of course, the vaccine helped (from my point of view), but oxygen therapy and other elements of care (earlier screening, etc.) also had to play. That said, at the limit, dissecting the impact of the treatment and / or the vaccine on the public really concerned is not the most important in the short term (the important thing is to save people), but it will be necessary to measure each element in the longer term.

it is not one or the other of course, it is a combination of the two that is necessary. But to say that you don't need a vaccine because you have oxygen is as silly as saying that you don't need oxygen because you have vaccines. And yet this is the discourse that some propagate ...

[Rajqawee]

I thought I was clear:

-hospitalizations (and therefore, the congestion which can result from it) are very mainly due to a well-identified public. Elderly people, people with co-morbidities. There are 18 comorbidities associated with covid, so they are well known. The rate is that 82% of people hospitalized have comorbidities. I was therefore saying that young people / people without comorbidities only represent noise in hospitalizations.

-Since you're talking about it, let's remember that all of the hospitalization covid is 2% of stays in 2020. Not 20. 2 percent. This is not negligible but it is far from being unmanageable, as long as we give ourselves the means. Of course, it's heterogeneous over the year, there are peaks, etc. But all the same.

- therefore, the audiences most affected, we know very well who they are. Moreover, we have known that for 18 months in fact. I do not understand your question, nor what follows from it. Convincing them will therefore be based on (oh my god, what a huge surprise), the benefit / risk they have in getting vaccinated. A discussion from patient to doctor therefore, doctor informed by the data that we have .... that is to say, comorbidities and / or age. And if we even want to go further, maybe the way of life is a bit (if you're a fan of museums, concerts, gyms, all that in closed places ... maybe it can fit taken into account). In short, it's like the flu.

[Janic]

abcon

yes it's true it's unbearable those who keep claiming to science to say that they hold the truth

and super big asshole who still goes crazy. In true science there is no truth, but knowledge- (therefore Science) ad hoc which may change the next day.

Janic wrote:
abcon

besides the fact that I did not discuss directly with Raoult,

The problem is here, that an incompetent contests a real scientist and the whole team of researchers, competent them, from the IHU. But then again, the narcissist, that you are, continues to boast in the deep void of his brain absent of neurons.

It is precisely the demonstration of your lack of neurons and therefore of intelligence.
The fact of underlining the IHU is to show the difference between your pretentious delusions of knowing, on vaccines (so you are a non-scientist) compared to a whole team of subject matter specialists. They are credible scientists (which does not mean holding any truth), compared to you where, apart from your overflowing stupid narcissist, your non-science does not make the weight.

[ABC2019]

I thought I was clear:

-hospitalizations (and therefore, the congestion which can result from it) are very mainly due to a well-identified public. Elderly people, people with co-morbidities. There are 18 comorbidities associated with covid, so they are well known. The rate is that 82% of people hospitalized have comorbidities. I was therefore saying that young people / people without comorbidities only represent noise in hospitalizations.

well even if you protected all the people with comorbidities, you would have the remaining 20% ​​.. except that nothing prevents then that the number of cases continues to climb and multiply this number by 5 !! why do without 20% additional protection, if the risk of the vaccine is almost zero?

-Since you're talking about it, let's remember that all of the hospitalization covid is 2% of stays in 2020. Not 20. 2 percent. This is not negligible but it is far from being unmanageable, as long as we give ourselves the means. Of course, it's heterogeneous over the year, there are peaks, etc. But all the same.

it is 2% of the number of admissions, but not occupied beds given the length of stay of hospitalized patients. On the other hand
* it is heterogeneous in space
* it is heterogeneous over time
* this was precisely achieved with unprecedented containment measures to AVOID congestion in hospitals. It is completely dishonest to take the pretext that it did not go too badly, to imply that it was not worth doing it! It's as if you were piling in a car to avoid a child and your passenger was telling you that it was not worth it to crash since you had avoided it!

- therefore, the audiences most affected, we know very well who they are. Moreover, we have known that for 18 months in fact. I do not understand your question, nor what follows from it. Convincing them will therefore be based on (oh my god, what a huge surprise), the benefit / risk they have in getting vaccinated.

no that would be the case if they were rational but obviously they are not, so must be - unfortunately - a little more restrictive, insofar as their behaviors impose a cost on the whole society.

[GuyGadeboisTheBack]

well even if you protected all the people with comorbidities, you would have the remaining 20% ​​.. except that nothing prevents then that the number of cases continues to climb and multiply this number by 5 !! why do without 20% additional protection, if the risk of the vaccine is almost zero?

Have you been drinking? Are you on benzos?