#Covid variants (Delta, Epsilon, Lambda ...): appearance, contagion, danger, immunity, treatments, vaccines ...

[Christophe]

So with the #delta it's when incidence rates drop that hospitalizations increase!



However, I heard yesterday at C dans l'air that the incubation period was weaker with the delta (never read anything in this direction ...)

[Christophe]

Ah FS post a feature article not pro provax system!

[Remundo]

there is nothing "paradoxical" about it

it is the usual shallot race between viruses and their adversaries. The fiercer the opponents, the more difficult the resilient virus that emerges is to eradicate.

it is a matter of natural selection.

we have already had the problem with the excessive use of antibiotics, which has led to the emergence of very resistant parasites.

[Christophe]

Why a high vaccination rate can paradoxically favor the emergence of resistant variants?

The more the number of people vaccinated, the more the competitive advantage of resistant strains increases. According to a new study, the maximum risk is reached with a vaccination rate of 60%, which is precisely the threshold that we are reaching in France.

Everyone hopes that mass vaccination will help eradicate the Covid epidemic. It is also necessary that a variant resistant to the vaccine does not call everything into question. Paradoxically, the risk of emergence of a resistant strain is maximum when a large part of the population is vaccinated, but not enough to ensure group immunity, shows a new study published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95025-3

The researchers simulated the probability that a resistant strain will emerge in a population of 10 million inhabitants within three years, taking into account the level of the vaccinated population, the rate of mutation of the virus and its speed. transmission, or the successive "waves" with a surge in contamination followed by a drop in new cases after the introduction of restrictions (confinements, closures, etc.). Not surprisingly, they conclude that rapid vaccination and a low level of circulation reduce the risk of emergence of a resistant variant. But the study also shows that this risk is greatest when a large part of the population is vaccinated, but not enough to ensure group immunity.

Selective pressure increases with vaccination rate

“When a major part of the population is vaccinated, in particular the high-risk fraction of the population (the elderly and those with underlying pathologies), decision-makers and individuals are tempted revert to pre-pandemic guidelines and behaviors conducive to a high rate of virus transmission » (especially true with a vaccine that does not protect against contamination !!), warn the authors. However, this is precisely the most favorable time for the emergence of resistant variants, due to the phenomenon of "selection pressure": the more the number of people vaccinated increases, the more the competitive advantage of vaccine-resistant strains. increases. This is also what is happening with the Delta variant: faced with an increasingly large number of immunized people, it had to increase its transmission capacity tenfold to continue to spread at the same rate.

Glass ceiling

The peak probability is therefore around 60%, i.e. the vaccination rate observed in England or Spain (the rate is 50% in France, 60% of the population received at least one dose of vaccine on July 27 and 50% received their two doses). However, the famous collective immunity threshold is rather around 90% of the vaccinated population, according to the Haute Autorité de santé. (70% 1 year ago, 90% today = they don't know!)

The problem is that this rate of 60% seems to be precisely that of the famous "glass ceiling" that we see in most countries. No country in the world has yet managed to reach this famous collective immunity threshold of 80% (if the micro state like Gibraltar), and even severe incentive measures such as the health pass in France will find it difficult to meet this objective. "If unfortunately the coronavirus epidemic remains present at a high level and with insufficient group immunity, it may be necessary to resort to compulsory vaccination", admitted Alain Fischer, Chairman of the strategy board. vaccine, on RTL on August 2.But of course !! Shit Bozo !!

The virus continues to circulate even among a vaccinated population

But will this be enough? Last Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned that while the vaccine prevented the risk of severe form, it did not completely block the risk of transmission, "because the immunity engendered is not predominantly mucosal ”(it does not prevent the virus from developing in the nose). The CDC therefore recommended that the mask be worn indoors, including for people who have been vaccinated. "It would be a utopia to believe that only vaccination would pull us out of this pandemic", confirms Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist and director of the Institute for Global Health at the University of Geneva. A tough pill to swallow for anyone who believed that vaccination would get them back to a normal life.

https://www.futura-sciences.com/sante/a ... nts-92812/

[Christophe]

there is nothing "paradoxical" about it

For us not, because we get information a little better but for all the neuneus (scientists in high places included and specialist interviewed on TV with or without baksheesh ... but generally with!) Who "believe" that the vaccine is the only one weapon to eradicate the pandemic it is paradoxical.

[ABC2019]

the article says that the risk is highest for a 60% vaccination rate, so it decreases if the vaccination rate is higher. It is not the vaccination itself that favors the variants, but the vaccination inadequate .

In addition, the mechanism described is much more subtle than a simple Darwinian selection (viruses do not select like a population of bacteria): it is because with an insufficient rate, the lethality decreases, and therefore the decision-makers are more tempted to let the epidemic run if it does not saturate hospital services. The explanation also implies two phenomena: the fact that the lethality is different according to the age group (the most vulnerable are vaccinated as a priority, therefore the average lethality decreases with vaccination), and the fact that public policies are based on occupancy rate of sheaves.

With a "zero covid" policy where we would combine vaccination AND more severe restrictions not to let the virus run, there would be no increase in mutations.

[Christophe]

Marianne takes stock:

[Janic]

by ABC2019 "03/08/21, 14:09

the article says that the risk is highest for a 60% vaccination rate, so it decreases if the vaccination rate is higher. It is not the vaccination itself that favors the variants, but insufficient vaccination.

Ah, the nullard! to go to 90 you have to go through 60, it doesn't start at 59 to stop at 61, isn't it too complicated for you?

In addition, the mechanism described is much more subtle than a simple Darwinian selection (viruses do not select themselves like a population of bacteria): it is because with an insufficient rate, the lethality decreases, and therefore the decision-makers are more tempted to let the epidemic run if it does not saturate hospital services. The explanation also implies two phenomena: the fact that the lethality is different according to the age group (the most vulnerable are vaccinated as a priority, therefore the average lethality decreases with vaccination), and the fact that public policies are based on occupancy rate of sheaves.

Bloubiboulga! what a patrol!

With a "zero covid" policy where we would combine vaccination AND more severe restrictions not to let the virus run, there would be no increase in mutations.

If my aunt had any, we'd call her my uncle, too! except that these mutations appeared (according to Raoult and his team) as soon as the highly mutagenic Remdesivir was used

Remdesivir introduces mutations in the SARS Cov2 virus
https://association-victimes-coronavirus-france.org > D...
Jan 22, 2021 - Remdesivir: mutagen in SARS-Cov2 • According to the New England Journal of Medicine, Remdesivir introduces mutations in the SARS Cov2 virus.

[ABC2019]

by ABC2019 "03/08/21, 14:09

the article says that the risk is highest for a 60% vaccination rate, so it decreases if the vaccination rate is higher. It is not the vaccination itself that favors the variants, but insufficient vaccination.

Ah, the nullard! to go to 90 you have to go through 60, it doesn't start at 59 to stop at 61, isn't it too complicated for you?

it's not at all complicated for me, and the conclusion is that you have to stay as short a time as possible at this dangerous threshold, and vaccinate even more to bring down the number of infected people and therefore the risk of mutation.

[Remundo]

there is nothing "paradoxical" about it

For us not, because we get information a little better but for all the neuneus (scientists in high places included and specialist interviewed on TV with or without baksheesh ... but generally with!) Who "believe"that the vaccine is the only weapon to eradicate the pandemic is paradoxical ..

from the verb to croiver (to believe + to force-feed)