Pandemic Coronavirus COVID-19: maps, statistics, analyzes and day-to-day information

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by Christophe » 04/04/20, 11:49

Un slower growth Intensive care admissions are observed in the Grand Est and in Ile-de-France ...

First positive signs after almost 3 weeks of confinement?
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by Christophe » 04/04/20, 11:52

jam wrote:I have other darker predictions in my opinion about the pandemic, but not only.


Go ahead and swing your predictions :) : Cheesy:

Here no tongue of wood! 8) 8)

Depending on the nature of these predictions, choose the right subject ...

If it's political or societal, for example, it's there: society-and-philosophy / the-after-coronavirus-t16356.html
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by jam » 04/04/20, 13:55

jam wrote:
Remundo wrote:Hi Jam,

Glad to reread you, even if the context is not happy.

Good remarks : Idea:


Hi remundo,
I come to the site a few times a month, but today, given the subject, I decided to log in to comment.

I have other darker predictions in my opinion about the pandemic, but not only.

My goal is as in my message above:

Please follow the recommendations of the health authorities.

And the curve will flatten out.


Continuing in the same vein, based on figures from Italy, with around 1% of people tested, there are around 250 deaths per million inhabitants.

Assuming the current progression continues, there will be 1.5 million deaths in Italy alone and almost 200 million worldwide. Almost 8 million in the USA, which generates other consequences ... (the "but not only") of the message above.


Please follow the recommendations of the health authorities.
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Adrien (ex-nico239)
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by Adrien (ex-nico239) » 04/04/20, 14:51

jam wrote:Continuing in the same vein, based on figures from Italy, with around 1% of people tested, there are around 250 deaths per million inhabitants.

Assuming the current progression continues, there will be 1.5 million deaths in Italy alone and almost 200 million worldwide. Almost 8 million in the USA, which generates other consequences ... (the "but not only") of the message above.


Please follow the recommendations of the health authorities.


Why should the current progression continue?

2nd unknown: we do not know the number of positiveg healed who did not know ...

It's a lot of unknowns to predict as many deaths

I think that in France we will reach the flu 2019 ... but it would surprise me that we reach the flu levels 2018 and 2017
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by Christophe » 04/04/20, 16:02

Adrien (ex-nico239) wrote:I think that in France we will reach the flu 2019 ...


The real figures or the labolobbyséachetezlevaccin figures? : Cheesy:

Sorry but considering the current mess, I still have a hard time believing in the 10-15 annual deaths from seasonal flu in France !!

My mother worked in a retirement home ... she never told me about a carnage like what is currently happening with the corona ...

The corona deaths are currently, officially, lower than those of the seasonal flu !!
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by Adrien (ex-nico239) » 04/04/20, 17:46

Christophe wrote:
Adrien (ex-nico239) wrote:I think that in France we will reach the flu 2019 ...


The real figures or the labolobbyséachetezlevaccin figures? : Cheesy:

Sorry but considering the current mess, I still have a hard time believing in the 10-15 annual deaths from seasonal flu in France !!

My mother worked in a retirement home ... she never told me about a carnage like what is currently happening with the corona ...

The corona deaths are currently, officially, lower than those of the seasonal flu !!


For that you just have to peel the annual reports of Public Health France
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by GuyGadebois » 04/04/20, 18:37

Christophe wrote:The real figures or the labolobbyséachetezlevaccin figures? : Cheesy:

Sorry but considering the current mess, I still have a hard time believing in the 10-15 annual deaths from seasonal flu in France !!

My mother worked in a retirement home ... she never told me about a carnage like what is currently happening with the corona ...

The corona deaths are currently, officially, lower than those of the seasonal flu !!

Very different figures circulate on the number of people killed by the virus each year. Some media have actually misread the figures produced by the French public health agency.

https://www.liberation.fr/checknews/202 ... rs_1781278
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"By definition the cause is the product of the effect". (Tryphion)
"360 / 000 / 0,5 is 100 million and not 72 million" (AVC)
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by jam » 04/04/20, 20:15

Adrien (ex-nico239) wrote:
jam wrote:Continuing in the same vein, based on figures from Italy, with around 1% of people tested, there are around 250 deaths per million inhabitants.

Assuming the current progression continues, there will be 1.5 million deaths in Italy alone and almost 200 million worldwide. Almost 8 million in the USA, which generates other consequences ... (the "but not only") of the message above.


Please follow the recommendations of the health authorities.


Why should the current progression continue?

2nd unknown: we do not know the number of positiveg healed who did not know ...

It's a lot of unknowns to predict as many deaths

I think that in France we will reach the flu 2019 ... but it would surprise me that we reach the flu levels 2018 and 2017


In about 2 weeks, the number of deaths in these countries will be those of the 1st column almost, except for China and perhaps "Germania".

wom_2020-04-04 14-08-09.png
wom_2020-04-04 14-08-09.png (30.88 KB) Viewed 1209 times


The second unknown has no importance.
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Adrien (ex-nico239)
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by Adrien (ex-nico239) » 04/04/20, 21:57

jam wrote:In about 2 weeks, the number of deaths in these countries will be those of the 1st column almost, except for China and perhaps "Germania".

Image

The second unknown has no importance.



Of course, knowing the number of positives would be useful to assess the possible evolution of the contamination.

That said for the rest you did not break the nénette you simply took the scores of the cases proven at time T listed by John Hopkins University and you arbitrarily carry them over a number of deaths in 2 weeks.

I think you are in the midst of delirium Image
And I put a favorite on this post ... to find it in 15 days

For the US, for example, in 15 days I don't think we will exceed 50 deaths, or 000 times less than your forecast.
To access the 50 you need an average daily rate of 000 deaths
To access the 300 would require an average daily rate of 000 deaths per day ...
Today we are on an average daily rhythm of just over 1000 deaths per day ...

And for France to access 89 deaths, the daily rate would have to be 953 deaths per day
Today we are at a rate of 1000 deaths per day ... so we are still very far from the account

See you in 15 days.

To be continued Image
Last edited by Adrien (ex-nico239) the 04 / 04 / 20, 22: 22, 1 edited once.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by Adrien (ex-nico239) » 04/04/20, 22:22

Figures for April 4 in France

24/1 to 18/2 - 11 proven cases
March 4 - 285 proven cases - 4 deaths *
March 5 - 423 proven cases (+138) - 5 deaths (+1)
March 6 - 613 proven cases (+190) - 9 deaths (+4)
March 7 - 949 proven cases (+ 336) - 11 deaths (+2)
March 8 - 1126 proven cases (+ 177) - 19 deaths (+8)
March 9 - 1412 proven cases (+ 286) - 30 deaths (+ 11)
March 10 - 2 confirmed cases - 039 deaths (+ 44)
March 11 - 2281 proven cases (+ 242) - 48 deaths (+ 4)
March 12 - 2876 proven cases (+ 595) - 61 deaths (+ 13)
March 13 - 3 proven cases (+ 661) - 785 deaths (+ 79)
March 14 - 4 proven cases (+ 499) - 838 deaths (+ 91)
March 15 - 5 proven cases (+ 421) - 922 deaths (+ 161)
March 16 - 6 proven cases (+ 633) -
March 17 - 7 proven cases (+ 730) - 1 deaths
March 18 - 9 proven cases (+ 134) - 1 deaths (+ 404)
March 19 - 10995 proven cases (+ 1) - 861 deaths (+ 372)
March 20 - 12 proven cases (+ 612) - 1 deaths (+ 617)
March 21 - 14 proven cases (+ 559) - 1 deaths (+ 847)
March 22 - 16 proven cases (+ 018) - 1 deaths (+ 459) - 674 healings
March 23 - 19 proven cases (+ 856) - 3838 deaths (+ 860) - 186 healings (+ 2207)
March 24 - 22 proven cases (+ 302) - 2 deaths (+ 446) - 1 healings (+ 100)*
March 25 - 25 proven cases (+ 233) - 2 deaths (+ 931) - 1 healings (+ 331)
March 26 - 29 proven cases (+ 600) - 4 deaths (+ 367) - 1696 healings (+ 365)
March 27 - 33 proven cases (+ 414) - 3 deaths (+ 814) - 1 healings (+ 997)
March 28 - 38 proven cases (+ 105) - 4 deaths in hospital (new name which does not include deaths in nursing homes for example or at home) (+ 691) - 2 return to home (new name (+ 314)
March 29 - 40 proven cases (+ 704) - 2 deaths in hospital (+ 599) - 2 return home (+ 606)
March 30 - 44 proven cases (+ 169) - 3 deaths in hospital (+ 465) - 3 return home (+ 024)
March 31 - 52 confirmed cases (+ 827) - 8 deaths in hospital (+ 658) - 3 return home (+ 532)
April 1 - 57 confirmed cases (+ 749) - 4 deaths in hospital (+ 922) - 4 return home (+ 043)
April 2 - 59 confirmed cases (+ 929) - 2 deaths (hospital + EHPAD) (+ 180 and + 5 including 398 EHPAD) - 471 return home (+ 1)
April 3 - 65 confirmed cases (+ 202) - 5 deaths (+ 273) - 6 return home (+ 520)
April 4 - 90 confirmed cases (+ 842) - 25 deaths (+ 640) - 7 return home (+ 574)

In bold the days of doubling the number of deaths based on March 4.

France
The rate of deaths has once again exceeded a thousand.
The now daily counting of deaths in nursing homes impacts the figure for more than half since the number of deaths in hospital is established at 441.


For information Germany 92 proven cases - 150 deaths - 1 healings
The USA 301 proven cases - 902 deaths - death from influenza in the US 8: 162 - 2019: 34 - 157: 2018 (source CDC)

As a reminder, the number of attributable influenza deaths in France: 2017: 16 - 000: 2018 - 14: 000


I did not find a curve of the total of 7574 deaths from coronavirus in France on April 4
If someone has a source it is willingly : Mrgreen:
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