Pandemic Coronavirus COVID-19: maps, statistics, analyzes and day-to-day information

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Remundo
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by Remundo » 03/04/20, 14:48

Comparative table World + Marseille
sicetaitsimple wrote:
Remundo wrote:In Marseille, all hospitals are at 0.77% (100x22 / 2837), and the Raoult IHU is at 0,12% = 100x2 / 1677 tonight April 2.
it is not worth absolute demonstration, but it challenges. [/ b]
To meditate. : Idea:


I looked at your table, it's interesting.

well thank you 8)
However, a note: I do not think that the results of the Mediterranean Infection Institute (which are included in the results of Marseilles hospitals) are very significant as such.

Given the number of patients treated (April 3 figures);
IHU: 1818 HCQ + AZT treatments, 5 deaths: mortality rate 0,275%
APHM: 3005 treatments (undefined nature); 33 dead: death rate 1,1%

I consider that the figures from the IHU have an interesting statistical basis. And we can even say without being mistaken that it is the IHU which pulls the APHM statistics towards a low mortality rate (while France is at 7-8% mortality!).

Indeed, excluding the IHU, the mortality rate for Marseille hospitals is 100x (33-5) / (3005-1818) = 2,3%
In fact, its mission is above all research and screening for infectious diseases, but its hospitalization capacities are very limited if I read correctly (75 beds for 3400 on the whole APHM.). I imagine that these 75 beds are now all occupied (and perhaps not only by patients affected by Covid-19), and that therefore a patient who tests positive in a "serious" state will be referred to another hospital.
That's just my opinion.

I for my part suspect that the 75 beds of the IHU are not a major handicap because the treatment of Raoult precisely makes it possible to limit serious complications and to send patients to their homes earlier.

I think that something remarkable is happening in Marseille, not a miracle, but a therapeutic success to salute.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by Christophe » 03/04/20, 15:25

gegyx wrote:It is not false,

but it is necessary to recognize all the same a new fact: the young people and adults in good health now die of a "simple flu"
?


And what doesn't stick too much is the saturation of hospital services EVERYWHERE in the world!

Obviously covid19 is added to all other pathologies ...

Nevertheless I am beginning to have more and more doubts about the mortality figures from seasonal flu in France ...

Who has personally experienced seasonal flu deaths? My mother worked for 20 years in a retirement home ... she was never panicked by seasonal flu deaths ... Officially 10 x more every year than covid19 ... Now covid19 decimates EHPAD currently!

Sorry but there is something wrong that stinks !!

How many patients in nursing homes? How many annual deaths from influenza ... The math is quick: EHPADs should lose 10% of patients per year! But it is not!

Is it not a swelling pro lobby figure to better sell future vaccines ???

Frankly, we can ask ourselves the question today without entering into the plot !!
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by Christophe » 03/04/20, 15:27

Remundo wrote:I think that something remarkable is happening in Marseille, not a miracle, but a therapeutic success to salute.


Still need to light some candles for the Good Mother or Notre-Dame-de-la-Garde in good spoken French!

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basilique ... e-la-Garde
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by sicetaitsimple » 03/04/20, 15:41

Remundo wrote:And we can even say without being mistaken that it is the IHU which pulls the APHM statistics towards a low mortality rate [/ b] (while France is at 7-8% mortality!) .


We agree!
What I wanted to highlight is that the IHU is part of the Marseille hospital health system.
Imagine for a moment that even being very advanced what I have no doubt about, they only have high-performance screening capacities but no hospitalization capacity, they would be according to the indicator that you have retained the best-in -class forever with an indicator at 0. That's all I wanted to report.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by jam » 03/04/20, 15:57

Hello,

I hope that few close people are affected by the passing flu!

I have a pretty terrible prediction to make here.

From the infection curves, as shown on worldometers, I note that from the date on which there are approximately 100 deaths in any country except China, if we add approximately 2 weeks to this date, the number of deaths will be approximately equal to the number of infections on the date that 100 deaths are counted.

This is valid as long as the infection curve is exponential.
So the prediction is that in about 2 weeks, there will be around 1 million deaths worldwide.

On the other hand, since the doubling time of the number of infections is around 6 days, there are around 2 months left to cover the world population. (assuming an exponential curve everywhere). As this is very unlikely, I think that with the containment measures, the famous curve will flatten and the doubling time will lengthen and the world population will not be completely infected.

I let you think.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by GuyGadebois » 03/04/20, 17:28

jam wrote:So the prediction is that in about 2 weeks, there will be around 1 million deaths worldwide.

We'll talk about it in two weeks.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by Remundo » 03/04/20, 18:17

Hi Jam,

Glad to reread you, even if the context is not happy.

Good remarks : Idea:
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by jam » 03/04/20, 18:37

GuyGadebois wrote:
jam wrote:So the prediction is that in about 2 weeks, there will be around 1 million deaths worldwide.

We'll talk about it in two weeks.


Take a French example.

For April 1 there was
France_deaths_apr_1.png
Death on April 1
France_deaths_apr_1.png (33.84 KB) Viewed 1367 times



And on March 14 there was
France_cases_Mar_15.png
Case on March 15
France_cases_Mar_15.png (32.69 KB) Consulted 1367 times



Please follow the recommendations of the health authorities.
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jam
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by jam » 03/04/20, 18:50

Remundo wrote:Hi Jam,

Glad to reread you, even if the context is not happy.

Good remarks : Idea:


Hi remundo,
I come to the site a few times a month, but today, given the subject, I decided to log in to comment.

I have other darker predictions in my opinion about the pandemic, but not only.

My goal is as in my message above:

Please follow the recommendations of the health authorities.

And the curve will flatten out.
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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19, map of the epidemic in real time




by Adrien (ex-nico239) » 04/04/20, 00:26

Figures for April 3 in France

24/1 to 18/2 - 11 proven cases
March 4 - 285 proven cases - 4 deaths *
March 5 - 423 proven cases (+138) - 5 deaths (+1)
March 6 - 613 proven cases (+190) - 9 deaths (+4)
March 7 - 949 proven cases (+ 336) - 11 deaths (+2)
March 8 - 1126 proven cases (+ 177) - 19 deaths (+8)
March 9 - 1412 proven cases (+ 286) - 30 deaths (+ 11)
March 10 - 2 confirmed cases - 039 deaths (+ 44)
March 11 - 2281 proven cases (+ 242) - 48 deaths (+ 4)
March 12 - 2876 proven cases (+ 595) - 61 deaths (+ 13)
March 13 - 3 proven cases (+ 661) - 785 deaths (+ 79)
March 14 - 4 proven cases (+ 499) - 838 deaths (+ 91)
March 15 - 5 proven cases (+ 421) - 922 deaths (+ 161)
March 16 - 6 proven cases (+ 633) -
March 17 - 7 proven cases (+ 730) - 1 deaths
March 18 - 9 proven cases (+ 134) - 1 deaths (+ 404)
March 19 - 10995 proven cases (+ 1) - 861 deaths (+ 372)
March 20 - 12 proven cases (+ 612) - 1 deaths (+ 617)
March 21 - 14 proven cases (+ 559) - 1 deaths (+ 847)
March 22 - 16 proven cases (+ 018) - 1 deaths (+ 459) - 674 healings
March 23 - 19 proven cases (+ 856) - 3838 deaths (+ 860) - 186 healings (+ 2207)
March 24 - 22 proven cases (+ 302) - 2 deaths (+ 446) - 1 healings (+ 100)*
March 25 - 25 proven cases (+ 233) - 2 deaths (+ 931) - 1 healings (+ 331)
March 26 - 29 proven cases (+ 600) - 4 deaths (+ 367) - 1696 healings (+ 365)
March 27 - 33 proven cases (+ 414) - 3 deaths (+ 814) - 1 healings (+ 997)
March 28 - 38 proven cases (+ 105) - 4 deaths in hospital (new name which does not include deaths in nursing homes for example or at home) (+ 691) - 2 return to home (new name (+ 314)
March 29 - 40 proven cases (+ 704) - 2 deaths in hospital (+ 599) - 2 return home (+ 606)
March 30 - 44 proven cases (+ 169) - 3 deaths in hospital (+ 465) - 3 return home (+ 024)
March 31 - 52 confirmed cases (+ 827) - 8 deaths in hospital (+ 658) - 3 return home (+ 532)
April 1 - 57 confirmed cases (+ 749) - 4 deaths in hospital (+ 922) - 4 return home (+ 043)
April 2 - 59 confirmed cases (+ 929) - 2 deaths (hospital + EHPAD) (+ 180 and + 5 including 398 EHPAD) - 471 return home (+ 1)
April 3 - 65 confirmed cases (+ 202) - 5 deaths (+ 273) - 6 return home (+ 520)

In bold the days of doubling the number of deaths based on March 4.

France
The death toll explodes.
The stats being from John Hopkins University I think they include deaths in nursing homes
Otherwise we take the arcgis stats this gives + 588 deaths (I suppose only in the hospital)


For information Germany 91 proven cases - 159 deaths - 1 cures
The USA 273 proven cases - 880 deaths - death from influenza in the US 7: 077 - 2019: 34 - 157: 2018 (source CDC)

As a reminder, the number of attributable influenza deaths in France: 2017: 16 - 000: 2018 - 14: 000


The curve of coronavirus deaths in France on April 3


The curve of coronavirus deaths in France on April 3.jpg
The curve of coronavirus deaths in France on April 3.jpg (194.46 KiB) Consulted 1320 times
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