JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species

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Exnihiloest
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by Exnihiloest » 28/02/20, 19:47

izentrop wrote:
Exnihiloest wrote:
Paul72 wrote: the last glaciation was generated 115000 years ago by a minute cooling due to a slight change in the inclination of the earth, but which caused a snowball effect - it is the case - over several thousand 'years, by gradual decline in boreal forests leading to an increase in albedo. Here we are talking about such upheavals, affecting the atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere (forests) over such a short time (a hundred years) that it is impossible to predict with certainty how far the change of state may go.

"over several thousand years". And even a tiny change in tilt is also tens of thousands of years. All the energy produced on Earth by humans would be insufficient to change the tilting axis of the Earth even over thousands of years. We are not in the same register with CO2 as with a change in inclination over millennia.
It's less of a snowball effect that you seem to be talking about, than of a butterfly effect that we know in earth science as a huge joke.
Mmm no! it is the conjunction of natural phenomena explained by Milankovitch, due to the precession, the elliptical orbit of our celestial body and the albedo which makes tilt the climate towards an ice age.

I was, of course, not talking about the change in inclination which is this conjunction, but what it is amalgamated with:
"Here we are talking about such upheavals, affecting the atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere (forests) over such a short time (a hundred years) that it is impossible to predict with certainty how far the change of state may go."
Climate change is not "such". It has nothing to do with the energies involved in the process.

The zumains (of which you are not a part) are in the process of tipping her into a stable and life-threatening area.
We are starting to have fairly precise figures https://www.statistiques.developpement- ... 2019_0.pdf

This is precisely what is disputed by some of the scientists, little one I grant you, but that I believe that they are not wrong for reasons that I have already provided, and they too but since 'They dispute, we don't even read them.

(To be frank I am not human, I admit, I am a climate refugee from a planet of Alpha Centauri, today completely charred). : Lol:
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by GuyGadebois » 28/02/20, 21:15

Exnihiloest wrote:(To be frank I am not human, I admit, I am a climate refugee from a planet of Alpha Centauri, today completely charred). : Lol:

We'll talk about your pirouette in 20 years. Ah no, you will be exhausted. :(
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by dede2002 » 29/02/20, 11:49

Exnihiloest wrote:...
I was, of course, not talking about the change in inclination which is this conjunction, but what it is amalgamated with:
"Here we are talking about such upheavals, affecting the atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere (forests) over such a short time (a hundred years) that it is impossible to predict with certainty how far the change of state may go."
Climate change is not "such". It has nothing to do in terms of energies involved in the process.

...


However, all the energies brought into play (dissipated) by the human species end up in ambient heat, with or without greenhouse effect. Even solar energy captured by panels! (the solar energy received by the earth is not entirely transformed into infrared, a good part is sent back into space in the form of light radiation).

And all these energies involved facilitate the modification of the environment, gradually reducing the conditions allowing life on earth, among other things by decreasing the natural capacity to reduce CO2 (concreting, deforestation, depletion of soils). Which makes me think that the energy transition is not an ideal solution, if it aims to increase the overall energy dissipation ...
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by sicetaitsimple » 29/02/20, 12:09

dede2002 wrote:However, all the energies brought into play (dissipated) by the human species end up in ambient heat, with or without greenhouse effect.


Yes, but it is just peanuts compared to the energy flows exchanged "naturally" on a global level.
Unless there is a very local effect, of course (heat islands in cities).
I'm not even sure that this is taken into account in the models (we are talking about the dissipation of energy linked to human activity, TWh, not CO2 and others associated with this dissipation, which will act on global exchanges)?
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by dede2002 » 29/02/20, 12:24

Okay, I don't know the numbers, but peanuts make you fat :P

And cities, too, are growing ...
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by sicetaitsimple » 29/02/20, 13:43

We can try an order of magnitude with the very big ladle.

Human consumption of primary energy (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, etc.) is less than 200.000TWh per year (see Wikipedia or others). Let's put 200.000.

An m2 of "average" land surface receives approximately 1MWh of solar energy each year. or for 200.000 TWh an area of ​​200.000 km2.

That is to say a "field" of 400 * 500km for the equivalent of the totality of the primary energy consumption of humanity (in energy received naturally).
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by Ahmed » 29/02/20, 13:48

This is the second paragraph of Dede2002 which seems really relevant and which I appreciated ...
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by dede2002 » 29/02/20, 14:13

sicetaitsimple wrote:We can try an order of magnitude with the very big ladle.

Human consumption of primary energy (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, etc.) is less than 200.000TWh per year (see Wikipedia or others). Let's put 200.000.

An m2 of "average" land surface receives approximately 1MWh of solar energy each year. or for 200.000 TWh an area of ​​200.000 km2.

That is to say a "field" of 400 * 500km for the equivalent of the totality of the primary energy consumption of humanity (in energy received naturally).


Thanks for the order of magnitude :)
The planet is not painted black, we can subtract the reflected solar energy.
Okay, the human part is small, but it adds up, and increases, and the reflected part decreases ...
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by Ahmed » 29/02/20, 14:15

It would be really nice if the thoughtful human part increased ... : Wink:
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by sicetaitsimple » 29/02/20, 14:17

Ahmed wrote:This is the second paragraph of Dede2002 which seems really relevant and which I appreciated ...


It was a reaction to an example I had cited. But nothing to do with the substance of his argument on the possible influence of dissipated energy, in the strict sense of its effects direct on warming.
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