JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species

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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by Exnihiloest » 24/02/20, 21:53

izentrop wrote:
According to your "climate-realistic" friends, not according to science.

Many climate realists are also scientists. But that is not even the question. This article does not concern climato-realistic opinions but cites verifiable facts.

If you had read it, you would have learned that the author of the article at the origin of this denunciation, Roger A. Pielke, university professor therefore who should kick you since you base all your beliefs on the argument authority, is not a climato-realistic but a warmist who has publicly affirmed anthropogenic warming. And yet he denounced these two billionaires who promote it, but by rolling you, you climato-gullible, in flour. It is therefore a warmist who has my respect because he knew how to share things, he is not limited.

If you were in a process of knowledge, you would have gone directly to see the article on Forbes ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielk ... e-science/ ), rather than blindly denying it on the pretext that it would come from climato-realists.
The site of climato-realists provides lots of scientific references and surveys whose sources, as we can see here, are perfectly respectable, it is just a starting point for curious and open minds.

I have the impression that you see "la"sience (as you say), like a big monolithic bazaar where the truth would measure up against the majority. If that were the case, Einstein's relativity would never have emerged. There are areas that are debated, and To believe that a science as young as climatology would already have obtained the same consensus as a theory as solid as relativity is pure delirium. The new generation of CMIP6 models giving results significantly different from the CMIP5 models. much more differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 than between relativity and Newtonian mechanics, have we ever seen physical theories change overnight to predict double or triple what they predicted the day before? !
The inexplicable differences between the two models are quite significant ( https://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2019-1175/ ). Not only is the future different, but the past is changed too (and yes, the data of the past changes, we tweak it). Would physics have changed significantly in a few years? And obviously it's worse than what we expected so far. It does not surprise anyone, however.
If there is an unscientific field in the method currently, where we replace the knowledge of the mechanisms and its equations by ladle-based computer models, where the misunderstandings of the phenomena are compensated by pifometric approximations and of which the slightest variation parameter that we are unable to know precisely changes drastically the evolution, it is the cimatology.
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by GuyGadebois » 24/02/20, 21:56

Exnihiloest wrote:If you had read it, ...

If you were in a process of knowledge ...

It feels like a sect ...
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by izentrop » 25/02/20, 01:38

I didn't see where they corrupted the climate : Shock: , but even if it is opportunism, their actions seem to go rather in the right direction
The two billionaires are used to funding green initiatives. Former New York mayor and owner of financial empire Bloomberg donated millions of dollars to the Sierra Club's Beyond Coal campaign, which has shut down many coal-fired power plants, and pledged to donate $ 500 million to shut down other coal-fired power plants in the country. by 2030

Meanwhile, Steyer founded the NextGen America organization, which aims to support candidates who advocate for climate action.

"This is top of the minds of voters in 2020. We know people are calling for action," Democratic strategist Jon Reinish said. "I think it will be a rewarding problem for both of you."

The two underscored their commitment to the issue on the campaign trail.

Steyer said he would declare climate change a national emergency from his first day in office and Bloomberg also said that tackling climate change would be a priority for him. https://thehill.com/policy/energy-envir ... -stand-out
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by Paul72 » 25/02/20, 14:18

dede2002 wrote:
I understand what you mean: the higher you fall, the more it hurts.
But the oil shortage is not on the agenda ...
Survive pretty well, with all the "kalash" around the world, it's not easy : Twisted:


With some limits all the same: those who live soberly on their production but with the risk of having to move if their place of life becomes unbearable, where the land becomes desertified.
The oil shortage is not on the agenda, but it is not unlimited. Once the peak of unconventional has passed, demand (which does not seem ready to decline) may exceed supply and create strong tensions (first on the markets). I would be careful not to predict a date ... already that economists are always planted on it !! The conventional has in any case largely exceeded its peak, production is for the moment supported by American shale oil (but not for very long, a few years approximately), perhaps after a while with the deep offshore, and then ?? 12th generation bio fuels ??
Needless to say, the Paris agreements are a breeze ...
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by Exnihiloest » 25/02/20, 17:47

izentrop wrote:I didn't see where they corrupted the climate : Shock: , but even if it is opportunism, their actions seem to go rather in the right direction ...

Well then... : Lol: : Lol: : Lol: here we have two philanthropic billionaires more royalist than the king in terms of global warming. All for a good cause. Unbelievable !

No one said they were corrupting the climate, but climate science. And it's black on white, for example:
" Risky Business' approach was to present the most pessimistic scenario of the IPCC as "the trajectory closest to the status quo""(cheating through selection). In addition"Risky Business has made two significant methodological errors"including"they incorrectly presented the IPCC scenarios as representing different policy outcomes, suggesting that we could "move" from one scenario to another".
And all this has been taken up everywhere, and surely went up in one way or another in the form of catastrophism, to your ears.

Anyway, let me tell you that when you say "their actions seem to be going rather in the right direction ..." when one of the two billionaires is a former CEO of Goldman Sachs, I laugh.
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by Exnihiloest » 25/02/20, 18:27

Paul72 wrote:... The conventional has in any case largely exceeded its peak, production is for the moment supported by American shale oil (but not for very long, a few years approximately), perhaps after a while with the deep offshore , and after that?? 12th generation bio fuels ??

after there will be at least nuclear fusion. We have a lot to keep up to now.

Needless to say, the Paris agreements are a breeze ...

For hypothetical effects on the climate, that's for sure.
Regarding the punctuation of citizens and the impoverishment of peoples, there the Paris agreements will not be out of the blue.
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by izentrop » 25/02/20, 22:49

Exnihiloest wrote:Let me tell you that when you say "their actions seem to be going rather in the right direction ..." when one of the two billionaires is a former CEO of Goldman Sachs, I laugh.
We were all wrong. Forget the past, as long as good resolutions are made to repair our mistakes by reversing the steam. : Wink:
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by Paul72 » 26/02/20, 12:28

Exnihiloest wrote:after there will be at least nuclear fusion. We have a lot to keep up to now.

: Arrow: hypothetical ... until it has been developed, let alone commercially, it only exists in theory. And at best, at the end of the century (we are more likely to count on fission for a while)

For hypothetical effects on the climate, that's for sure.
Regarding the punctuation of citizens and the impoverishment of peoples, there the Paris agreements will not be out of the blue.


: Arrow: Not hypothetical, already proven and unprecedented known. the last glaciation was generated 115000 years ago by a minute cooling due to a slight change in inclination of the earth, but which caused a snowball effect - it is the case to say - over several thousands of 'years, by gradual decline in boreal forests leading to an increase in albedo. Here we are talking about such upheavals, affecting the atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere (forests) over such a short time (a hundred years) that it is impossible to predict with certainty how far the change of state may go. but what is absolutely indisputable is that the upheavals underway will for the most part be irreversible, and generally unfavorable to the living (we leave the comfort zone of the Holocene beyond 1,5 ° C of warming)
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by Exnihiloest » 26/02/20, 22:48

izentrop wrote:We were all wrong. Forget the past, as long as good resolutions are made to repair our mistakes by reversing the steam. : Wink:

Sorry, not clear to me, who is "we"? Us here or the instigators of the Paris agreements? It is in good faith that I ask the question because I do not follow you very well.
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Re: JP Morgan economists warn of climate crisis threatening human species




by Exnihiloest » 26/02/20, 23:09

Paul72 wrote: : Arrow: hypothetical ... until it has been developed, let alone commercially, it only exists in theory. And at best, at the end of the century (we are more likely to count on fission for a while)

There is enough oil to last until the end of the century. Fission is obviously to keep and would even be to develop.

: Arrow: Not hypothetical, already proven and unprecedented known. the last glaciation was generated 115000 years ago by a minute cooling due to a slight change in inclination of the earth, but which caused a snowball effect - it is the case to say - over several thousands of 'years, by gradual decline in boreal forests leading to an increase in albedo. Here we are talking about such upheavals, affecting the atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere (forests) over such a short time (a hundred years) that it is impossible to predict with certainty how far the change of state may go.

"over several thousand years". And even a tiny change in tilt is also tens of thousands of years. All the energy produced on earth by humans would be insufficient to change the axis of tilt of the earth even over thousands of years. We are not in the same register with CO2 as with a change in inclination over millennia.
It's less of a snowball effect that you seem to be talking about, than of a butterfly effect that we know in earth science as a huge joke.

but what is absolutely indisputable is that the upheavals underway will for the most part be irreversible, and generally unfavorable to the living (we leave the comfort zone of the Holocene beyond 1,5 ° C of warming)

It would be indisputable if the forecasts were reliable. At 5 years old, the IPCC crashes twice to three times. Warming is slight, not at all catastrophic. And despite that they have shamelessly brought us out of new, even more catastrophic models where even the data of the past have changed, and of course they, in the direction of cooling. Let's be serious, climatology is not a hard science, it is in its infancy, completely subservient to politics, and the so-called upheavals are Nostradamus-style predictions encouraged by an entire industry and by speculators. There is no climate emergency.
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