How to consume less and save?

[sen-no-sen]

I am simply saying that there is no shortage of oil, that there never has been, and that it is not about to happen.

Who spoke of an oil shortage?
It's about peak production, not shortage.

The best proof is that unlike ANY product that is becoming scarce, the price of oil is only falling * (by the barrel, not at the pump) ...

The price of a barrel is not correlated to the reality of the reserves but to the flows available at a given time... it is a speculative product, and states, especially Uncle Sam, know how to manipulate prices for geopolitical purposes, so it is not so paradoxical to have declining oil reserves and relatively low prices. It is also unlikely that the price of a barrel will reach peaks even in times of crisis, because when oil becomes scarce the world growth slows down, which induces a fall in consumption and therefore in the price.

[thibr]

Problem of the episode:
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Petroleum fuels are used in 95% of transportation. Petroleum derivatives are used in industry to heat materials and in petrochemicals to make all kinds of plastics and lubricants. We extracted 4.3 billion tonnes of oil in 2017. This represents on average 4 baths filled with oil per person and the figure rises to 8 baths if we look at the French average. Our way of life depends on oil. She is the mother of all resources. We use it everywhere, all the time. However, petroleum is also a fossil resource present in finite quantity on earth. So, as we run out of resources, oil becomes more and more scarce, therefore more and more expensive, hence an obvious strategy: you have to buy oil! EXCEPT THAT !!! This strategy is very likely not to work. In this video, we are interested in the elements of the mathematical theory describing the financial markets which justify that the reasoning given above cannot work.

[GuyGadebois]

I am simply saying that there is no shortage of oil, that there never has been, and that it is not about to happen.

Who spoke of an oil shortage?
It's about peak production, not shortage.

The best proof is that unlike ANY product that is becoming scarce, the price of oil is only falling * (by the barrel, not at the pump) ...

The price of a barrel is not correlated to the reality of the reserves but to the flows available at a given time... it is a speculative product, and states, especially Uncle Sam, know how to manipulate prices for geopolitical purposes, so it is not so paradoxical to have declining oil reserves and relatively low prices. It is also unlikely that the price of a barrel will reach peaks even in times of crisis, because when oil becomes scarce the world growth slows down, which induces a fall in consumption and therefore in the price.

It is only in times of (organized) crisis that the price of a barrel has exploded. For the rest, it's good, you confirm what I say.
You should see Jacques Rouffio's "Le sucre" again. You replace "sugar" with "oil" and you have the key.

[Ahmed]

It is only in times of (organized) crisis that the price of a barrel has exploded.

Certainly! But we were then a little before or almost at the top of the Gauss curve; it is important not to trust the symmetry of this curve, because the easiest oils to extract are already burned ... and if we correct the plot of this factor, that damn changes.

[GuyGadebois]

and if we correct the plot of this factor, that damn changes.

I will tell the receiver about it the next time I go to La Poste.

[sen-no-sen]

Most crises are not organized but "organizeable" nuance.
The subprime crisis was not voluntarily started, it is the result of a convergence of parameters whose trigger was the conventional peak oil.

[GuyGadebois]

Most crises are not organized but "organizeable" nuance.
The subprime crisis was not voluntarily started, it is the result of a convergence of parameters whose trigger was the conventional peak oil.

The subprime crisis was organized, planned, triggered and enriched a handful of swellings while sacrificing Madoff who is in no way responsible for the speculative drifts of the system (he is only its incarnation). A Ponzi scheme in a way. After, we can see it like you, but it's laughable.

[sen-no-sen]

Most crises are not organized but "organizeable" nuance.
The subprime crisis was not voluntarily started, it is the result of a convergence of parameters whose trigger was the conventional peak oil.

The subprime crisis was organized, planned, triggered and enriched a handful of swellings while sacrificing Madoff who is in no way responsible for the speculative drifts of the system (he is only its incarnation). A Ponzi scheme in a way. After, we can see it like you, but it's laughable.

Conspiracy theory .... always easy to use this to simplify history ...

[GuyGadebois]

Most crises are not organized but "organizeable" nuance.
The subprime crisis was not voluntarily started, it is the result of a convergence of parameters whose trigger was the conventional peak oil.

The subprime crisis was organized, planned, triggered and enriched a handful of swellings while sacrificing Madoff who is in no way responsible for the speculative drifts of the system (he is only its incarnation). A Ponzi scheme in a way. After, we can see it like you, but it's laughable.

Conspiracy theory .... always easy to use this to simplify history ...

No plot in there, but a result made possible by the rules and the very functioning of this system. An evidence.

[sicetaitsimple]

Certainly! But we were then a little before or almost at the top of the Gauss curve; it is important not to trust the symmetry of this curve, because the easiest oils to extract are already burned ... and if we correct the plot of this factor, that damn changes.

I have no idea how you can be so assertive?
Certainly, there is no doubt about the fact that oil extraction will experience a peak, not yet reached at this stage, and that one day it will decrease, certainly after a "quasi-plateau" of indefinite duration, perhaps but I don't have a crystal ball for ten years? No idea, but hey, it should look roughly like this, a cap that sets in a few years before a decrease.
But why, on a physical level, should the decrease be much faster than the growth? Knowing that indeed at this stage the price should reflect a certain rarity, therefore "boosting" all that is exploration production.
If you have a "physical" explanation (apart from generalized conflicts, conspiracy theories, or others ....), that interests me.