GuyGadebois wrote: I am simply saying that there is no shortage of oil, that there never has been, and that it is not about to happen.
Who spoke of an oil shortage?
It's about peak production, not shortage.
The best proof is that unlike ANY product that is becoming scarce, the price of oil is only falling * (by the barrel, not at the pump) ...
The price of a barrel is not correlated to the reality of the reserves but to the flows available at a given time... it is a speculative product, and states, especially Uncle Sam, know how to manipulate prices for geopolitical purposes, so it is not so paradoxical to have declining oil reserves and relatively low prices. It is also unlikely that the price of a barrel will reach peaks even in times of crisis, because when oil becomes scarce the world growth slows down, which induces a fall in consumption and therefore in the price.