GuyGadebois wrote:
Observation, feeling, common sense, reality.
Yes or quick search on the internet ....
The article you have linked is not very objective, it is a strictly economic analysis.
To announce an end of petroleum for the next century consists in creating a confusion between petroleum theoretically present on earth and economically and technologically exploitable petroleum.
The nuance is size.
In addition it is noted that:
An absolute record and a figure up 9% compared to 2008 when the peak oil theory was making the headlines.Here the author confuses scientific theory and belief, the conventional peak oil has been reached, it's official (IEA), over the period 2006/2008, this is not a hypothesis as it seems understood in Article.
In the 1'42 "video the speaker shows a graph of proven oil reserves by extrapolating 48 years of reserves to come. This kind of reasoning has no value, you never exploit a resource to the last drop .
The oil fields considered to be exhausted still contain a large quantity of oil, but it is far too energy-consuming to exploit them, technical innovation or not.
A more serious article on the subject:
Oil peak likely * by 2025, according to the International Energy Agency
To prevent a decline in world oil production by 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announces that it will be necessary to multiply by 2 or 3 the extraction of shale oil. However in the United States, shale oil continues to lose money…
The consequences of the supply crunch envisaged by the IEA promise to be particularly harsh for Europe. Waking up?
https://www.lemonde.fr/blog/petrole/2019/02/04/pic-petrolier-probable-dici-a-2025-selon-lagence-internationale-de-lenergie/Note that past predictions were consistent with observations.
*: That is to say "peak all oil"
"Engineering is sometimes about knowing when to stop" Charles De Gaulle.