To death the electric car ... and fast !!

Cars, buses, bicycles, electric airplanes: all electric transportation that exist. Conversion, engines and electric drives for transport ...
Christophe
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To death the electric car ... and fast !!




by Christophe » 26/10/18, 16:43

This is at least the opinion (well biased ... read what will follow ...) of this "analyst": https://www.fleet.be/philippe-casse-le- ... -mensonge/

The reign of electric cars: big illusion or lie?
16/08/2017

The announcement of the ban on the thermal engine car, or even the ban on its sale invades the media. But the technical, economic, social and environmental foundations of such projects are questionable.

The opinion of Philippe Casse

Since the invention of the automobile in the 1880 years, there has always been a market for the electric car. In 1900, half of the world's fleet (about 20 000) consisted of electric cars (EVs).

At the time, the cost of the engine, gearbox and clutch was significantly higher than that of the engines of EV whose driving was especially much simpler. The mass production of "petrol" cars and their limitless autonomy signified the abandonment of EVs, except for very specific uses, the most notable example being the door-to-door delivery of fresh milk in Great Britain.

The 14-18 war, the first motorized war in history, ended up putting the EVs almost to oblivion ... for just a century.

A market for the electric vehicle (EV)

There is a market for EVs. Urban and especially captive professional use remains the main potential base. Some individuals can also use it if they avoid the disabilities listed below.

As for hybrids, they can be essential to enter the city the day when access to a thermal vehicle is prohibited. But they are economically absurd and their consumption and emissions of CO2 in common use on the road are significantly heavier than those of their non-hybrid equivalent.

The announcement of the ban on thermal cars, or even the prohibition of their sale, invades the media while the technical, economic, social and even environmental foundations of such projects are doubtful.

One has the impression of an escalation without any voice rises to bring the politicians to a little reason. We may fear that our leaders do not perceive the consequences of their statements at all.

"Green washing"

It is true that the authorities operate a "green washing" cheaply because it is much less risky politically than forcing all the owners to isolate their home for example.

With the banishment of the thermal engines and thus with the "absolute reign of the electric car", one would be tempted to answer by a so provocative expression: "the great illusion! "

Why ? Simply because it is impossible to see all the motor cars (pm 1,25 billion cars) replaced by EVs. Impossible with absolute certainty with regard to battery EVs, and almost absolute certainty with regard to fuel cell VEs!

1. It's technically impossible

Because if the entire fleet of Belgian cars (5 750 000) was electric, it would increase 30% electricity production in our country! Is this possible with the announcement of the closure of nuclear power plants?

These untimely announcements also forget that there is not yet a circular economy in recycling lithium-ion batteries and that the only two effective fuels known for fuel cell VEs are hydrogen. and methanol.

Hydrogen requires more energy to produce it than it can deliver. It is also the only known explosive fuel and it is produced today mainly by cracking the molecule CH4 methane (natural gas). And methanol comes in strong competition with the needs of human nutrition.

Finally, argument weight, there is no electric alternative for heavy trucks today. Not to mention that in many parts of the world, there is no electricity available, or the distances are too great and the travel times uncertain between two charging stations. With, in addition, the uncertainty of the consumption which varies very strongly according to the driving, the temperature and the gradient of the road.

2. It's impossible on the environmental level

Despite our country's efforts to produce renewable electricity, the energy efficiency of EV batteries, and therefore its production of CO2 induced by its construction, use and recycling at the end of life ("from the well to the wheel") ), are at best equivalent to those of a comparable diesel car.

Outside of Norway, electricity production in any European country does not allow a battery-powered EV to be more energy efficient than a comparable diesel car. Moving the CO2 production from the car from where it is used to a power plant is therefore an illusion of benefit! And EVs produce about half of the fine particles of equivalent diesel cars (brake wear, tires, etc.) or gasoline cars with direct injection engines.

3. It's impossible sociologically

First, the 2 / 3 of the Belgian fleet "sleep" on public roads (ie 3 800 000 units). And the European Commission is asking Belgium to install only 21 000 charging stations on public roads.

Secondly, half of Belgian households do not want or can only have one car, which must therefore ensure all the family's mobility needs. This is especially true for journeys without a modal alternative, such as many long-distance trips with luggage. It is also impossible to imagine the simultaneous recharging of thousands of EVs on the same route of the holidays.

And finally, there is a non-negligible number of great professional riders whose activities lead them to ride all day and not have the necessary time to stop and recharge the batteries.

4. It's impossible fiscally

Although the imagination of our rulers is not lacking ... energy in this area! But how long will the tax holiday of the amortization of more than 100% of an EV last when one knows the saga of green certificates in Wallonia?

In addition, each VE in addition to the fleet equates to one less thermal vehicle! How will the state then compensate for the loss of excise duties and taxes on fuel (pm 5 billion euros) which is no longer consumed by EVs? The multiple benefits that are offered or promised to EV users (eg in Norway: use of the bus band, exemption from congestion charging and parking) will soon become impossible if the number of EVs takes off as our leaders want.

At the moment of concluding ...

Finally, we never talk about the difference in consumption between a wise driver and another who is not. It is easily demonstrated that this difference is at most only 50% in diesel. It goes to 100% in gasoline car. But, in VE, it can go up to 200% (ie the tripling of the consumption), without counting the supplementary consumption of the heating or the airco and especially the reboots in side.

Under these conditions, it can be said that announcing the dominant or absolute reign of the electric car and the total disappearance of diesel are either an illusion or a lie. But they will in any case two victims: the consumer and the environment! And all the more so as progress in engines continues to accelerate.

Who will have the nerve, the audacity and especially the credibility to challenge the authorities on this subject? It is feared that this is not coming from the industry. As for the electricity producers, they probably rub their hands. It will not come from them either! When will a group of university professors come to the plate?

Editor's note: who is Philippe Casse?

A sales engineer by training, Philippe Casse was in charge of public relations from D'Ieteren from 1991 to 2012. Today a pensioner, he defines himself as a historian of the automobile. And for good reason, our contributor sits in various commissions and federations related to the automobile and its history.


Psychorigidity is an illness you think? In any case, lobbying is a profession ...
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Re: To death the electric car ... and fast !!




by Ahmed » 26/10/18, 18:52

Small formal remark on the title: capital letters are not exempt from accentuation (the A can be obtained very easily by pressing the alt key and forming the digit 183).

This article contains many statements of unequal value. On the merits, what harms the credibility of the whole is a defense without nuances of what exists. Therefore, the arguments listed, often relevant, are wrong. The electric vehicle would be a nonsense mainly in comparison with its thermal equivalent.
This unfortunate bias should not overshadow the accuracy of the environmental criticism against EV (we will certainly come back! :D ).
Finally, it neglects any economic analysis of the emergence of this change: it is not a “painless” measure, but a large-scale planned obsolescence to revive consumption.
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Re: To death the electric car ... and fast !!




by perseus » 26/10/18, 22:18

Hello,

To be clear, I am not a connoisseur of this subject but it concerns me and interest to the extent that it can be the realization of a choice that I could do in the future and I'm not certain completely from where to lean, and it really asks me. However, to be clear, I am convinced that the priority is to decarbonize.
Might as well get out of the woods when we talk about this subject, so I make my declaration of "heritage" and interest. I drive 30 to 000 / year in diesel. Whether for work or in view of my rural habitat, I can hardly do less. At home in the village, I have no problem walking 40 or 000km just to go to the grocery store or the post office, I have never taken my car for this kind of trip ...

But the article tickles me a bit (not so much anyway), to make very short:

The opinion of Philippe Casse

Since the invention of the automobile in the 1880 years, there has always been a market for the electric car. In 1900, half of the world's fleet (about 20 000) consisted of electric cars (EVs).


That's what annoys me the most. An intro on a period where none of the concerned technologies were mature, nor the infrastructures, the mentalities, nor the uses ... The kind of intro boat which -fourmillent on the Net and the forums- show at the outset the author's bias and discredit all subsequent remarks, especially when I see the rest of the article.


The result then, and I apply more and more this approach on this kind of critical comments: no proposal of solution or alternative corresponding to the subject (I insist on it) = no interest. Basically :
- "your new solution sucks"
- "OK, okay, so what do we do, before it's better so we change nothing? Do you have another alternative on this subject?"
- "..."

That's just my opinion

:)
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Re: To death the electric car ... and fast !!




by Ahmed » 26/10/18, 22:48

For the intro, I am more indulgent than you: I see rather a historical reminder a little rhetoric, certainly, but has its relevance to evoke the bifurcations of technical solutions.
On the question of alternative proposals, which is a more serious aspect, there is a question of methodology: is it wise to reduce the problem to the technical side alone or should the situation be assessed more generally? The answer to this question depends on the type of answer.
In the first case (which can be understood), the questioner clearly positions himself as a consumer: he learns that such and such a product would not be "good", his reaction is to inquire about a better product ...
However, we are at a period of profound change, I am not referring here to "lasting illusions" and other nonsense, but to collective challenges unparalleled in the past. In this case (which in no way reflects the vision of the author of the article!), No unequivocal answer is possible, since a collective problem can only be solved collectively (starting, however, from simple ideas and common sense (which I mentioned recently on the "Prepare the exit... ").
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Re: To death the electric car ... and fast !!




by perseus » 26/10/18, 23:05

Hello,

Ahmed wrote:[...] since a collective problem can only be solved collectively (starting, however, from simple ideas and common sense (which I mentioned recently on the wire "Prepare the exit... ").


Certainly, I agree, but on the other hand, my experience of agricultural unionism (production) taught me that the collective struggles to agree on the findings and even more on the means to act. On the other hand, it shines to pillory any form of decision-making structure for its inaction or the inadequacy of proposed measures. In fact, things do not change, and not always because of the influence of lobbies (imaginary or real) but for fear of displeasing the dominant expression of the collective.
Having said that, I am quite reserved on "common sense" nothing is more subjective than common sense sometimes. :-)

If not to feed the discussion initiated by the initiator of the post, I came across this:
https://www.20minutes.fr/economie/2360899-20181025-oui-patron-psa-bien-exprime-reserves-essor-voiture-electrique-fabrique?xtor=RSS-176
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Re: To death the electric car ... and fast !!




by izentrop » 27/10/18, 00:18

Le Point took stock of the ideas received and the progress of the electric. https://www.lepoint.fr/automobile/innov ... 91_652.php
Today, with the purchase, an electric car is more expensive than a car with thermal engine mainly because of the cost of its battery. This cost, however, is constantly decreasing: from 600 euros per kWh in 2010, it has grown to around 200 today. Result: according to Renault a segment B electric car (a Clio) should not cost more than a thermal 2020 horizon(it's already the case), and in 2025 for segment C (Megane). Thus, current subsidies can be reduced gradually until they are abolished.

... the two solutions do not struggle, but coexist with different but complementary types of functioning ...

... A ZEX ZE40 already claims today a range of 400 km on the unrealistic NEDC homologation cycle, which corresponds to about 300 km in actual driving situation. A much more expensive model like the Tesla model S P100D already claims an official autonomy of more than 600 km (more than 400 km in reality). There is no doubt that a real autonomy of more than 600 km will soon be reached ...

... A consortium of Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW and Ford is already working to develop a network of high-speed charging stations with powers of 350 kW. It will allow the restoration of an autonomy of 100 km in four minutes, even 400 km in 15 minutes .... Ext Ext ...
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Re: To death the electric car ... and fast !!




by Christophe » 27/10/18, 02:29

You have the source or a study that confirms this fall in the price (customer a priori) stored kWh?

Because 200 € / kWh it seems to me very little ...

a) It is much cheaper than the Chinese prices ... out of port and customs tax (see Alibaba ...)

b) that would mean that the price of a Tesla battery sold at 120 000 € with 80kWh battery is only 80 * 200 = 16 000 €?
and that of an 30kWh electric car (150 km range) of 30 * 200 = 6000 € ...

c) How are builders doing it? They have their battery factory now? Warning I'm talking about a cell factory, not a possible cell assembly (same problematic as with PV panels)
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Re: To death the electric car ... and fast !!




by Ahmed » 27/10/18, 09:12

@ Perseus
I quite agree with your comments. The concern of the collective, indeed, is that it rarely functions as such and that its control is mostly captured by apparatchiks *; it is imperative to associate in practice democracy and collective.
On the "common sense", I admit having hesitated before writing this expression, for the reasons that you evoke very judiciously and I did it only because it referred to very precise words in my mind (define collectively the common good, for example).

* The height being that it is a reproduction of the power structures against which it is erected!

Note: apparatchik = member of the steering apparatus.
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Re: To death the electric car ... and fast !!




by A.D. 44 » 27/10/18, 09:17

Hello,

Ah fast loads (or ultra fast ...)

Some manufacturers like nx for example give the precise characteristics of their products and in particular their lifespan ...

The lifepo4 are advertised at 1500 cycles for loads at C / 5 and 300 cycles for loads at 10C.

So choose ... Load ultra fast like a nag (with installations brooms to support amps of barjo) or not.
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Re: To death the electric car ... and fast !!




by A.D. 44 » 27/10/18, 10:22

Christophe wrote:You have the source or a study that confirms this fall in the price (customer a priori) stored kWh?

Because 200 € / kWh it seems to me very little ...




when you see that (just a small example at 112 € per kWh), nothing seems surprising about the prices:

https://www.ebay.fr/itm/20000mAh-Rechar ... 2602982812

After that remains Li-ion with 500 loads in the best case (if you do not kidding too much about the charging current) if very fast load 500cycles are certainly no longer ... 300? 200?
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