The reign of electric cars: big illusion or lie?
16/08/2017
The announcement of the ban on the thermal engine car, or even the ban on its sale invades the media. But the technical, economic, social and environmental foundations of such projects are questionable.
The opinion of Philippe Casse
Since the invention of the automobile in the 1880 years, there has always been a market for the electric car. In 1900, half of the world's fleet (about 20 000) consisted of electric cars (EVs).
At the time, the cost of the engine, gearbox and clutch was significantly higher than that of the engines of EV whose driving was especially much simpler. The mass production of "petrol" cars and their limitless autonomy signified the abandonment of EVs, except for very specific uses, the most notable example being the door-to-door delivery of fresh milk in Great Britain.
The 14-18 war, the first motorized war in history, ended up putting the EVs almost to oblivion ... for just a century.
A market for the electric vehicle (EV)
There is a market for EVs. Urban and especially captive professional use remains the main potential base. Some individuals can also use it if they avoid the disabilities listed below.
As for hybrids, they can be essential to enter the city the day when access to a thermal vehicle is prohibited. But they are economically absurd and their consumption and emissions of CO2 in common use on the road are significantly heavier than those of their non-hybrid equivalent.
The announcement of the ban on thermal cars, or even the prohibition of their sale, invades the media while the technical, economic, social and even environmental foundations of such projects are doubtful.
One has the impression of an escalation without any voice rises to bring the politicians to a little reason. We may fear that our leaders do not perceive the consequences of their statements at all.
"Green washing"
It is true that the authorities operate a "green washing" cheaply because it is much less risky politically than forcing all the owners to isolate their home for example.
With the banishment of the thermal engines and thus with the "absolute reign of the electric car", one would be tempted to answer by a so provocative expression: "the great illusion! "
Why ? Simply because it is impossible to see all the motor cars (pm 1,25 billion cars) replaced by EVs. Impossible with absolute certainty with regard to battery EVs, and almost absolute certainty with regard to fuel cell VEs!
1. It's technically impossible
Because if the entire fleet of Belgian cars (5 750 000) was electric, it would increase 30% electricity production in our country! Is this possible with the announcement of the closure of nuclear power plants?
These untimely announcements also forget that there is not yet a circular economy in recycling lithium-ion batteries and that the only two effective fuels known for fuel cell VEs are hydrogen. and methanol.
Hydrogen requires more energy to produce it than it can deliver. It is also the only known explosive fuel and it is produced today mainly by cracking the molecule CH4 methane (natural gas). And methanol comes in strong competition with the needs of human nutrition.
Finally, argument weight, there is no electric alternative for heavy trucks today. Not to mention that in many parts of the world, there is no electricity available, or the distances are too great and the travel times uncertain between two charging stations. With, in addition, the uncertainty of the consumption which varies very strongly according to the driving, the temperature and the gradient of the road.
2. It's impossible on the environmental level
Despite our country's efforts to produce renewable electricity, the energy efficiency of EV batteries, and therefore its production of CO2 induced by its construction, use and recycling at the end of life ("from the well to the wheel") ), are at best equivalent to those of a comparable diesel car.
Outside of Norway, electricity production in any European country does not allow a battery-powered EV to be more energy efficient than a comparable diesel car. Moving the CO2 production from the car from where it is used to a power plant is therefore an illusion of benefit! And EVs produce about half of the fine particles of equivalent diesel cars (brake wear, tires, etc.) or gasoline cars with direct injection engines.
3. It's impossible sociologically
First, the 2 / 3 of the Belgian fleet "sleep" on public roads (ie 3 800 000 units). And the European Commission is asking Belgium to install only 21 000 charging stations on public roads.
Secondly, half of Belgian households do not want or can only have one car, which must therefore ensure all the family's mobility needs. This is especially true for journeys without a modal alternative, such as many long-distance trips with luggage. It is also impossible to imagine the simultaneous recharging of thousands of EVs on the same route of the holidays.
And finally, there is a non-negligible number of great professional riders whose activities lead them to ride all day and not have the necessary time to stop and recharge the batteries.
4. It's impossible fiscally
Although the imagination of our rulers is not lacking ... energy in this area! But how long will the tax holiday of the amortization of more than 100% of an EV last when one knows the saga of green certificates in Wallonia?
In addition, each VE in addition to the fleet equates to one less thermal vehicle! How will the state then compensate for the loss of excise duties and taxes on fuel (pm 5 billion euros) which is no longer consumed by EVs? The multiple benefits that are offered or promised to EV users (eg in Norway: use of the bus band, exemption from congestion charging and parking) will soon become impossible if the number of EVs takes off as our leaders want.
At the moment of concluding ...
Finally, we never talk about the difference in consumption between a wise driver and another who is not. It is easily demonstrated that this difference is at most only 50% in diesel. It goes to 100% in gasoline car. But, in VE, it can go up to 200% (ie the tripling of the consumption), without counting the supplementary consumption of the heating or the airco and especially the reboots in side.
Under these conditions, it can be said that announcing the dominant or absolute reign of the electric car and the total disappearance of diesel are either an illusion or a lie. But they will in any case two victims: the consumer and the environment! And all the more so as progress in engines continues to accelerate.
Who will have the nerve, the audacity and especially the credibility to challenge the authorities on this subject? It is feared that this is not coming from the industry. As for the electricity producers, they probably rub their hands. It will not come from them either! When will a group of university professors come to the plate?
Editor's note: who is Philippe Casse?
A sales engineer by training, Philippe Casse was in charge of public relations from D'Ieteren from 1991 to 2012. Today a pensioner, he defines himself as a historian of the automobile. And for good reason, our contributor sits in various commissions and federations related to the automobile and its history.
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