François Roddier, thermodynamics and society

[Ahmed]

Indeed, this is the meaning of my remark: the "withdrawal" cannot be a voluntary strategy when it will simply be a consequence of the collapse and, moreover, nothing indicates that it is specifically in a framework. national, only smaller territorial units.

[sen-no-sen]

Collapse and education
19 January 2019 François Roddier

As I show in this blog and explain it in my new book "From Thermodynamics to the Economy", economic collapse is a natural process. Every economy necessarily goes through crisis phases. The amplitude of the crises is inversely proportional to their frequency. The question is what will be the magnitude of the next crisis.

In my previous post, I explained that collapse is a cultural phenomenon. Like any dissipative structure, a society memorizes information. By dissipating energy, it changes its environment. When the information it memorizes is no longer adapted to its new environment, its culture has become inadequate and society collapses. A society memorizes information through the education of its children. It is therefore not surprising that the collapse of a society is linked to the collapse of its educational system (note 125). It is interesting to see how this system evolves along a secular cycle, as it is described in the figure of ticket 117.

A society reorganizes during its phase of depression. Our society went through such a phase between 1918 and 1939, that is to say between the two world wars. There have been numerous teacher training colleges where education was excellent. The teachers thus trained educated the generation that followed and of which I am a part. I have a book on my desk, titled science lessons, from that time. It describes the subjects taught for the certificate of studies. I would like all young people who pass the baccalaureate today to have this minimum knowledge!

The phase that followed is called the growth phase. It is often referred to as the "baby boom". Our teachers were taken aback. They were no longer numerous enough. Twenty years later, the young people of that time arrived at university. New universities had to be urgently created, such as the University of Nice to which I was appointed. I have been asked to fill assistant positions. I had a lot of trouble finding candidates!

The amphitheatres were full and the students were not very satisfied. They demonstrated it in May 68. We trained them as best we could. A few years later, this tide of students found herself looking for a job. Needless to say, sources of employment quickly dried up. The company then entered its stagflation phase. This is how students, hastily trained, found themselves in a society of unemployed, a situation not very enviable.

Towards the end of the 70s, seeking to improve employment, the French state decided that the education program had to be adapted to the needs of employers. The school then underwent an in-depth transformation. With the abandonment of Latin, then of geometry in the CES classes, the teaching of logical reasoning was postponed in the final year. The replacement of classical math with "modern math" has resulted in the learning of a new and esoteric vocabulary. The curriculum for all subjects has been reduced.

Parents and teachers were taken by surprise. It was not until the 80s that books with evocative titles appeared. I give a list in note. For a very complete analysis of the school problem in Europe, I recommend Nico Hirt's publications. In 1999, a documentary film "The satchel of big brother" by F. Gillery clearly shows the link between the school and the big bosses (https://www.liberation.fr/medias/1999/0 ... que_262578).

As expected, the outcome of the reforms did not live up to expectations. Growing numbers of students turned to business and finance schools, while the quality of our engineers was in free fall. No one wanted to teach anymore, the quality of our teaching continued to deteriorate. We have entered the crisis phase.

The most important finding is that we have realized this. In recent years the school has again evolved. Basic knowledge is beginning to be rehabilitated. Just as when the winter is going to be very cold the animals put in advance a winter coat adapted to the future season, the current school foreshadows that of tomorrow.

As proof, the book by Pierre Léna, a longtime friend with whom I studied: "Teaching is hoping, advocating for the school of tomorrow" (2012) where he describes his project "Hand in hand", a more concrete way of teaching scientific subjects. In “Experiencing Mathematics” (2010) M. Maurel and C. Sackur present their analysis of the difficulties students experience when teaching mathematics.

I also want to prove this the opinion of a well-known American academic and journalist Diana Johnstone (http://www.unz.com/article/french-democ ... -or-alive/) which can be translated as follows: “Although we mourn the decline of the school system, the French people are as reasonable and well educated as we can hope. If he is incapable of democracy, then no democracy is possible. "

For my part, I taught for 18 years at the University of Nice before devoting myself more fully to research. Since I retired, I have published three books, all from the same publisher and in the same collection. Its title: "time to learn".

History teaches us that education collapsed after the fall of Rome, not before. It is common today to speak of the collapse of society. The very fact that we are talking about it shows that we are aware of the danger. The collapse of a society is not inevitable: everything will depend on the way we react, and it depends on our education.

Bibliographie:

"The goldfish in the Perrier" by JP Despin and MC Bartholy (1983),
"Do you really want silly kids?" "By M. Maschino (1984),
"The teaching of ignorance and its modern conditions" by JC Michéa (1999),
"The new teachers of the school, European education under the thumb of the markets" by N. Hirt (2002),
"The factory of the moron, the programmed death of the school" of JP Brighelli (2005),
"The school debacle, a misunderstood tragedy" by L. Lafforgue and L. Lurçat (2009),
“Experience mathematics, between teaching and research” by M. Maurel and C. Sackur (2010),
"To teach is to hope, to advocate for the school of tomorrow" by P. Léna (2012).

http://www.francois-roddier.fr/

[sen-no-sen]

135 - Collapse and statistical mechanics
François Roddier

I would like to come back here to the real subject of this blog, namely the link between the evolution of societies and the laws of statistical mechanics.

Like any dissipative structure, our societies describe cycles, which the historian Giovanni Arrighi (2) describes as "long centuries", separated by brutal collapses. The statistical analyzes of Thomas Piketty (3) show that in Europe, the last collapse took place between 1910 and 1918. Then begins a long XXth century which can be divided into 4 phases of 30 years each.

If we keep the nomenclature of Turchin and Nefedov, the first phase is a phase of depression. It extends from 1918 to 1948 and includes the Great Depression of 1929. The second phase is a phase of expansion. Qualified as "30 glorious", it extends from 1948 to 1978. The third phase is a stagflation phase. It runs from 1978 to 2008. The last phase is a crisis phase. It started with the banking crisis of 2008.

It is interesting to analyze the evolution of the school according to the phase of the cycle that society is going through. History teaches us that it was in 1932, that is to say during a phase of depression, which is also a phase of reorganization of society, that the expression "public education" was replaced by the expression "national education". History also teaches us that it was towards the end of a very rapid growth phase that education entered into crisis with the events of May 1968.

One way to interpret these results is to consider a human society as a set of individuals exchanging information, that is to say a neural network. American writer Howard Bloom talks about the global brain. A human society would be a gigantic brain whose individuals would be the neurons.

This allows us to compare the secular cycle of a society with the diurnal cycle of our own brain. The depression phase of a society would correspond to the REM sleep phase of the brain. It is during this phase, well analyzed by Keynes, that society "dreams" of what it will do but does not act. This requires that demand be organized for the new cycle it will go through. A government incentive may be required. To motivate the demand, public education is not enough, it is worth a true national education. This is the transformation we observe in 1932. It is still not enough. The company prefers paid holidays established in 1936.

The next phase, called the expansion phase, is the phase during which society, like all living things, takes action. The Second World War seems to have been the trigger, the shock that prompted society to produce. It became indeed necessary to rebuild everything. We are talking today of the Thirty Glorious Years. The war having been world, a similar phenomenon occurs in the United States. To face competition from the United States, Europe must organize itself. Appears the European Union.

Like any living organism, a human society gets tired quickly. In May 1968, young people rebelled against society without being able to change it. Production depends on our oil resources and it is becoming increasingly clear that these are running out. In 1973, the price of oil made a good leap forward. Growth is slowing down and everyone is wondering about the policy to follow. In 1978, the Arab countries signed a treaty with Israel. These are the Camp David agreements. They mark the end of the expansion phase.

Having exhausted a large part of their resources, the developed countries must make a decision: slow down their activity or continue to produce whatever the cost. Ronald Reagan in the United States and Margaret Thatcher in England provide their answer: continue at all costs. There is no alternative (TINA: there is no alternative). Continental Europe felt compelled to follow. It is then that, for want of sufficient resources, our advanced societies enter a phase of stagflation.

Exhausted, the global brain of society struggles with the effort. He would like to rest and fall asleep, but he is condemned to stay awake. Formatted by old cells, young people must remain active. They rebel: it is the education crisis. We know how an insomnia ends. Exhausted, the brain ends up falling asleep. In the case of a society we speak of economic collapse. This is what awaits us.

(1) Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov. Secular cycles, Princeton (2009).
(2) Giovanni Arrighi, The Long Twentieth Century, Verso (2010).
(3) Thomas Piketty. Capital in the 2013st century, Seuil (2). Chart I.54. (p. XNUMX).
(4) François Roddier, From thermodynamics to economics, Parole (2018).

http://www.francois-roddier.fr/

[Ahmed]

Perhaps Roddier is he a little optimistic about his perception of the excellent education of the inter-war period because there is necessarily a gap between the content of the teaching, adapted to the previous period and its use later ... , the information is no longer necessarily very relevant once (painstakingly) acquired ...
As we can see, education is a conformation to a given socio-cultural context, which is clearly shown by its attempts at successive reforms.

Il écrit:

The Second World War seems to have been the trigger, the shock that prompted society to produce. It became indeed necessary to rebuild everything.

There are two things to take into account:
1 - strong demand due to the destruction of physical goods (= great potential for what I call "consumer labor" which is the necessary counterpart of productive labor.
2 - initial abundance of liquidity thanks to the Marshall plan which enabled material needs to be solvent.
So the conjunction of a well-proportioned hot spring and cold source.
The great wave of innovations and productivist gains then maintained the phenomenon until the 70s. Since then, less massive innovations and a continuous decrease in the labor force set in motion reverse the previous trend.

This shows that a great "potlatch" corresponding to the massive destruction of a war constitutes the ideal of functioning of a system as absurd as capitalism and that real and abstract enrichment present themselves, on the contrary, as major obstacles.

[sen-no-sen]

There are two things to take into account:
1 - strong demand due to the destruction of physical goods (= great potential for what I call "consumer labor" which is the necessary counterpart of productive labor.
2 - initial abundance of liquidity thanks to the Marshall plan which enabled material needs to be solvent.
So the conjunction of a well-proportioned hot spring and cold source.
The great wave of innovations and productivist gains then maintained the phenomenon until the 70s. Since then, less massive innovations and a continuous decrease in the labor force set in motion reverse the previous trend.

We can add to this that the wave of innovations results in large part from the "genius" implemented during the war (V2 rocket, nuclear weapons, aviation etc ...).
The advent of nuclear arsenals and the arms race which as a result made it possible to avoid a third world conflict (to be replaced by a cold war) promoting the development of economism around the world.

Note that according to the work of Turchin et Nefedov a 4-stroke cycle (depression / expansion / stagflation / crisis) with 30-year phases would have been at work since the beginning of the 20th century.
F.Roddier note that the crisis period would have started in 2008, which does not bode well because we would have left for almost 60 years of hassle!
I think that in view of the effect of the red queen cycles over the recent period should logically be shortened.
Thus we could assume a cycle of crisis over the period 2008/2028, which would fit well with the all-oil peak, the phase of depression over the period 2028/2040 followed by a phase of expansion may be linked to the advent of thermonuclear fusion. Of course this is speculation on my part, but let's say that events seem to be going in the right direction.
What do you think?

[Ahmed]

Yes, you are right to insist on the preeminent role of wars *, since, as I suggested (but perhaps in a way too discreet), they represent the acme of capitalism. Because of the innovations (results of the investments), but also of the need to recycle the productive capacities once the conflict ended, for civil ends (if AZF jumped, it is not completely by chance!).

Regarding a cycle of closer crises, I have no specific answers. However, as you point out, doping with fossil fuels and particularly in its petroleum form, the most suited to the present characteristics of our mode of operation, will become more and more difficult, while at the same time the "dose "necessary will tend to increase. Nuclear fusion would be a way of satisfying this growing thirst, if this sector succeeds in times compatible with the weakening of other sources, but this remains a hypothesis and, on the other hand, if it is verified, would only bring the systemic contradictions to an unprecedented degree, which would make it appear that the problem is not of a technical nature and therefore cannot hope to be solved by a "tour de force". It is nonetheless true that the mastery of fusion, as illusory as it is, presents itself as the only technological escape route in the context of the current headlong rush.
We should hope that a happy bifurcation (?) Avoids this dead end which seduces so many, oblivious that they are the equivalence between energy and destruction ...
E=

* This is just an observation and not a value judgment worth approval, even encouragement!

[Janic]

Nuclear fusion would be a way of satisfying this growing thirst, if this sector succeeds in times compatible with the weakening of other sources, but that remains a hypothesis and, on the other hand, if it were to be verified, would only bring the systemic contradictions to a degree never reached, which would make it appear that the problem is not of a technical nature and therefore cannot hope to be solved by a "tour de force". It is nonetheless true that the mastery of fusion, as illusory as it is, presents itself as the only technological escape in the context of the current headlong rush.

indeed it is only a question of a headlong rush. A popular saying goes that "you can't have your cake and eat it too"and that on any face of a coin, there is automatically a tails side that no one wants to see because it is too unpleasant to recognize and prevents the machine from going in circles. However, the more we want to flee a reality, the more it comes back violence in the face of the one who did not want to see it.

[phil12]

Yes, you are right to insist on the preeminent role of wars *,

..
E=

*

Bonjour,

Imagine our planet if there hadn't been the atomic bomb?

The Russians would be in Gibraltar, the Chinese in Tokyo, the Americans in Ushuia

[sen-no-sen]

. However, as you point out, doping with fossil fuels and particularly in its petroleum form, the most suited to the present characteristics of our mode of operation, will become more and more difficult, while at the same time the "dose "necessary will tend to increase.

Yes, this generates a negative retroactive loop.
In Hinduism time is sequenced into several ages (Yuga), the last of them Kali Yuga (iron age) is characterized by a phase of degeneration. Each age is characterized by a shrinking of time compared to the other, not that a second does not last a second but that events are linked more and more faster*.

The kali Yuga pretty much resembles the notion of crisis phase developed by Turchin et Nefedov
We can not help the parallel with the current period: the increase in energy dissipation has generated retroactive loops accelerating more and more the course of events, this is once again a good example red queen effect.



* The years of the Yugas are not to be considered as the years of the Gregorian calendar, but rather based on a cultural / psychological time, from where the figures announced are extremely large, it is probably the same with biblical times.

[Ahmed]

Hinduism time is cyclical (as your graph illustrates), unlike modern Western perception for which time is presented as an augmentative or positive continuity; these differences of appreciation induce significant bias in reasoning, thus, in the second case, "progress" is postulated, it is legitimized by a retrospective analysis which explains the past in the light of the present * and thereby introduces a continuity which does not exist in reality **. This helps to consolidate us in a model of operation which cannot be called into question because of this belief inseparable from technoscience; only palliatives found within this reductive way of thinking seem acceptable ***.

* This produces an even more questionable civilizational evolutionism than certain anthropocentric conclusions of Darwinism ...
** This is particularly evident in our friend's speech Exnihiloest.
*** But, as the saying goes Einstein"Problems cannot be resolved within the framework that created them".