TF1 news video on oil depletion

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TF1 news video on oil depletion




by Christophe » 12/11/07, 15:02

Small video broadcast on the TF1 newscast:
https://www.econologie.com/flambee-du-pr ... -3525.html

Key figures:

- 1070 MM barrels consumed
- 1100 MM Barrels in "stock" (probably more)
- Decline from 2030
- End of the oil at the end of the XIIIth century

So as I say for a while, oil is still quite a lot ... and the stock should only concern exploitable resources!

For once I agree with TF1 : Mrgreen:
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Re: TF1 news video on oil depletion




by camel1 » 13/11/07, 00:22

Hi Christopher!

I do not exactly have the same reading,

- 1070 MM barrels consumed
- 1100 MM Barrels in "stock" (probably more)
- Decline from 2030
- End of the oil at the end of the XIIIth century


These figures show that we have eaten half of the reserves, knowing that they were the easiest to extract -> low operating cost -> cheap oil.

Depletion is NOW because we are tackling the second half of the reserves, one that will be more and more difficult to exploit, one that will require the development of new and expensive extraction technology (oil sands by example), which will inevitably increase the price at the pump (apart from speculative movements punctual), that which will make the other sources of energy finally competitive, and cause a burst of R & D on these other resources.

And suddenly, the end of oil will probably well after the end of the XNIXXème century, for the good reason that we will have found ways to do without it as fuel, and that we will use it only sparingly, as the precious resource it is for all applications where it is, at least for the moment, irreplaceable, in the plastics and petrochemical industries.
I remember that at present, 70% of the global energy burned on the planet is of oil ... that gives the measure of the problem.

The economists and the experts are the modern Irma madams, they deify and extrapolate by pretending that things are going on indefinitely and invariably continue in the same way, at the same pace.
They are the only ones able, with aplomb, to explain to you the next day why they said the opposite the day before.

And to finish on TF1, the subliminal message was "Sleep peacefully, good people, we are in control, you can continue driving, we have time, confidence, confidence, confidence ..."

mdr : Lol: : Lol: : Lol:

Cho!

Michel
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by Christophe » 13/11/07, 10:15

Yes but if the journalist did not mix the brushes ... these "stocks" are the current (exploitable) resources: ie profitable wells at the current cost of energy, with the current technology and following the zones currently prospected. That is to say that in terms of reserves * it remains much more!

For example, it turns out that there is still about 25% of reserves (I mean reserve and not resource *) worldwide beyond the Arctic Circle ( https://www.econologie.com/forums/arctique-p ... t4095.html ) where nothing (or almost nothing) has been exploited for the time being. And for good reason: these are the wells probably the most expensive, it will become profitable only from a certain price of energy.

Another example: we put into operation abandoned wells there are decades because not profitable ... at the time.

Finally, the average extraction rate is less than 35% with current technology ... see:

Jancovici wrote:Image

Recovery rate found or considered (on the vertical axis) for 3300 world's oil fields, depending on the tank size (that is to say the amount of oil physically underground), expressed in billions of barrels (along the x axis). 1 159 barrel = liters.

Source Jean Laherrère, Petroconsultants, 1997


http://www.manicore.com/documentation/reserve.html

Finally as long as you do not need 1 barrel to extract / transport / refine 1, it will be profitable to extract it ...

ps: for subliminal it's not wrong except it's not subliminal at all :)

* at the definition level: a resource is an exploitable reserve. A reserve is the gross amount of the well. The link between 2 is the extraction rate. See the janco link!
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