by freddau » 25/09/06, 09:20
For some, the “peak oil” has already been reached. Others do not consider it before thirty years.
CAN we pinpoint the peak oil, that is, when oil production will start to decline? Vast debate, certainly recurrent, but made even more acute after the announcement by Chevron, a few days ago, of the discovery of an extremely promising deposit in the Gulf of Mexico.
According to the fifth largest company in the world, this gigantic field could house 3 to 15 billion barrels. "But that will not upset the balance of the world's reserves. In addition, the technological difficulties, due to the great depths, and the scale of the investments required are two major obstacles ”, underlines Nathalie Alazard-Toux, director of studies at the French Petroleum Institute (IFP).
In general, the peak oil horizon is linked to a few unavoidable data: the state of reserves of course, but also and above all the - double - rhythm of world production and consumption. Or a statistical tool never fixed, which makes the estimation of a climax particularly complex. "It's very simple, while the most alarmist observers emphasize that peak oil is already reached, others do not envisage it for thirty years," adds Nathalie Alazard-Toux.
For Thierry Desmarest, the chairman of Total, interviewed by Le Figaro at the start of the year, it all depends on whether consumption continues to climb as quickly or whether we decide to take measures to limit it. "At the current rate, the peak oil would be between 2020 and 2025. If we manage to slow the growth of world demand for oil, in particular by energy savings, to less than 1% per year, we can reduce this peak oil after 2030 and give yourself more time to develop alternative energies. (Read our February 16 editions.)
The high price of a barrel does not encourage investment According to Jean-François Giannesini, independent expert, it is less the highest stage of production than that of discoveries which must be analyzed. “However, the peak oil of discoveries was reached twenty years ago. Now everything is a question of investment. Either we accelerate production, and the end of oil approaches, where then we maintain the current level and the fall will be less brutal. "
But as Jean-François Giannesini immediately notices, it is not a barrel at 60 dollars, guaranteeing high incomes for producing countries and large companies, which will encourage them to produce too massively, under penalty of lowering prices .
"The producing countries are forced to a subtle balance: on the one hand, they do not want too expensive oil which would encourage the development of other energies, on the other, they are pleased to note that a barrel of which the price has tripled in four years has not slowed world consumption, ”continues Nathalie Alazard-Toux.
Under these conditions, producing countries will continue to jealously guard access to the resource. This is the case of Aramco, the Saudi national company, which has never given an oil exploitation license on the soil of the kingdom. Large international companies, for their part, have already started to rehabilitate old deposits, while exploiting unconventional types of oil such as oil shales or tar sands.
0 x