indy49 wrote: Here is why rising oil prices are beneficial long-term :
Consumers who are tired of paying more and more will buy cars that consume less and less (or invest in the insulation of their housing, etc ...)
Thus, the manufacturers of cars (or insulators), to be able to continue to sell, will invest in technos which make it possible to save energy. It takes time, but it is effective. You just have to see the investments that were made during the previous oil crises to convince yourself!
The more expensive the dirty energies, the more profitable the clean (or less dirty) energies, and therefore the more they develop.
Indy, I find your demonstration very convincing but I put a "social" downside. Indeed, concerning cars, consumers who are fed up with paying more and more and who will buy cars that consume more and more are consumers who can financially buy a new car, which is far from being the best. case for everyone.
This means that those who are fed up with paying more and more but who cannot buy a new car, will either get around the problem in part (HVB, fuel instead of diesel, pantone, ... carpooling , rental ... etc), either will take more public transport (this implies that they are in large cities), or that they will continue to be tired of paying.
There remain those who can afford to buy a new car and don't mind paying more and more to hydrate their 4x4 V8, their petrol V6 minivans or their big German sedan.
So in practice, with a higher fuel price, will the car renewal rate be higher, ie will it be higher in number of new cars sold and in frequency of renewal? it depends in part on the progress made by car manufacturers. We have seen that Citroën was offering a hybrid car study with the C-Cactus at a reasonable price that I find very interesting.
But if the progress in consumption of car manufacturers is not so convincing, some potential buyers may eventually fall back on smaller cars because the children have gone to live their lives, ... etc but this will be compensated by those who make them. (children).
So in summary, the increase in fuel prices can lead to:
-short term :
1-sanitation of the vehicle fleet, that if car manufacturers provide a concrete response in terms of consumption, even at the cost of more embodied energy to manufacture (hybrid) cars.
2-a disaffection of a part of the population towards the automobile in favor of public transport or carpooling, which is not applicable everywhere, far from it.
3-a drop in purchasing power for the population who can neither buy new, nor take public transport, nor .....
- medium and long term:
1-an obvious cleaning up of the car park, but would it not have been done as quickly without an increase in fuels by the simple game of renewing the fleet? Let us not forget that the evolution towards a clean car is not done only according to the price of the barrel, it is also done because the manufacturers know that there is an expectation of the population for more respect for the 'environment, less greenhouse gases, fewer polluting particles, and if we go further, fewer politico-financial problems on a global scale, fewer international conflicts linked to energy.
My reasoning can also apply to housing. Regarding insulation for example, either you opt for basic insulation, inexpensive, with very average performance, or you opt for efficient and / or environmentally friendly and then you have to bank.
And I am not talking about the premiums and tax credits which only apply if you bring in a craftsman, who will take his margin and play the role of VAT collector for the State.
To conclude, I drive little, so I don't suffer too much from the increase in fuels and finally, I choose to use eco-friendly insulation, therefore more expensive for my house, although I heat myself with wood and that I could do without (insulators).
When are the oiled polar bears?
I remain convinced that the price has more impact than people's good conscience. Touching the wallet always has more effects than trying to tickle people's goodwill (e.g. effect of automatic radars, or the big 4x4s that are sold for driving in town ...)
