by freddau » 14/09/06, 22:36
Here I even found where the off button is, I think:
The world economy continues to show a flourishing health despite the slight cooling of growth in the United States, estimated Thursday the International Monetary Fund, while warning against the return of inflation and expensive oil.
"Global growth is expected to grow by 5,1% this year before returning to a more moderate rate of 4,9% in 2007," said the IMF in its autumn economic report published in Singapore. In April, he expected only 4,9% and 4,7% respectively.
The world is experiencing "the period of global expansion (...) the strongest since the early 70s", with growth exceeding 4% for four years and which should remain so in 2007, he underlines.
Nevertheless, "these solid forecasts are surrounded by more uncertainties than in the past with the risk of a deterioration of the situation," tempered the IMF chief economist, Raghuram Rajan, to the press.
The report is particularly concerned about the return of inflation, which is accelerating everywhere and could lead to more severe interest rate hikes than expected from central banks. He also fears further surges in the price of oil and or a sharp fall in the real estate market in the United States.
Mr. Rajan insisted in priority on the risk caused by the "slowdown more accentuated than expected in the United States, accompanied by the uncertainty on the extent of the autonomy of the growth of the rest of the world compared to the American growth ".
The report has indeed revised down its forecast for the world's largest economy next year to 2,9%.
"A sharp collapse in the real estate market could cost US growth up to a percentage point", he warns.
The euro zone is finally out of the rut with an expected growth of 2,4% in 2006, its highest rate in six years, notes the IMF, before falling to 2% next year. This slowdown is mainly due to the expected tax hike in Germany in 2007.
In Japan, the strong appetite of consumers will allow growth of 2,7% this year, before falling to 2,1% in 2007.
As for emerging economies and developing countries, growth remains strong at 7,3% in 2006 (7,2% in 2007), outweighed by China's 10% growth this year and next.
In terms of risks, the policeman of the global financial system is worried about inflationary pressures in industrialized countries. Starting with the United States, where they were the consequence of rising wages and moderation in productivity.
Another threat: further shocks on the oil market, with a political situation still volatile in the Middle East, which "could fuel a further rise in prices".
According to the report, in view of the contracts negotiated on the markets, we can expect an "average price per barrel of 75 dollars in 2007, close to the record reached in early August".
However, the IMF recalls that despite the recent surges in oil prices, the world economy has shown exemplary resistance, the increases being due "to a strong increase in demand rather than to supply difficulties" .
Finally, the examination of global imbalances shows, according to the report, that the widening of the American current account deficits could be financed without causing too much suffering on the world financial system.
For the future, the IMF invites the Federal Reserve to consider further rate hikes to curb inflation, Japan to continue its gradual recovery and China to work in favor of greater flexibility in its rates. change rate.
To be coupled with the notion energy intensity, ie the ratio between the energy consumed and the GDP and the fact that the current energy is far from being clean.
The best are the Europeans and the Japanese, the worst, the Chinese and the North Americans at the last news. But hey, even with the best it's not enough.
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