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Christophe
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Analyzes of France, French and the countryside




by Christophe » 09/05/07, 14:35

Well, I deviate from the anti-anti-Sarko rule that we set ourselves, but I found this interview very interesting!

I therefore pass it in full ... be careful, it may hurt some people to hear certain "truths".

POLITICAL LIFE - ELECTIONS 2007 -

LUC ROUBAN - RESEARCH DIRECTOR AT CNRS (CEVIPOF)

"The new president will carry an extremely heavy weight on his shoulders"


Nicolas Sarkozy has just been elected president of the Republic. In what state does he find French society?

France is in a state of extreme political fragility. Despite the high participation and interest in the campaign, voters remain defiant with regard to institutions and elites, whether these are political or economic. This is clear when we compare France to other European countries. Interpersonal trust is also weak, that is to say that citizens are distrustful of one another. This is reflected in relationships at work: employees do not trust their hierarchy or their colleagues. The consequence of this fragmentation and these divisions is that French society continues to demand a strong integrating state.

On values, we can consider that the French, whether right or left, are attached to a kind of cultural liberalism: compared to other Europeans, they are not the least tolerant, for example with regard to strangers, homosexuality or soft drugs, and are very attached to secularism. Contrary to popular belief, and despite the "no" to the European Constitutional Treaty, they are not anti-European either, in the sense that the British are, for example. On the other hand, they are not very liberal economically.

"Cultural liberalism" and distrust of economic liberalism. How do you explain, therefore, that Nicolas Sarkozy, who campaigned on the return of conservative values ​​(authority, ethics, etc.) and on “liberation from work”, was elected?

This is what makes me say that the election of Nicolas Sarkozy is partly based on a misunderstanding and that his task looks complicated. Its main success has been to meet the demand of a strong state (national identity, security, etc.). If he does not want to disappoint, he will have to demonstrate that the State is capable of taking things in hand. However, economic room for maneuver is reduced (growth, debt, globalization, etc.). Not to mention that he will have to deal with weak union organizations with a strong protest culture.

However Nicolas Sarkozy seems to have been elected on a relatively clear mandate in a context of very strong electoral participation. Does this not invalidate your thesis of the crisis of political representation?

Some speak of a peaceful democracy because people went to vote. I will not be so optimistic: the political life of a country is not measured simply by an election, but by long-term behavior. In addition, the campaign was built on pretense. It was more publicized than ever with potentially negative effects: the great volatility of the themes gave the feeling of a kind of self-service, of supermarket voting, which did not allow clear priorities to be established and led candidates to propose everything and its opposite. How can we be both nationalist and Atlanticist? Or at the same time open to European liberalism and defend the French public service? This over-media coverage meant that certain fundamental questions, such as the impoverishment of the middle classes, were not tackled head-on.

Finally, the political crisis is not so far when we observe that the “anti-system” vote in the first round, including that in favor of François Bayrou, attracts almost half of the votes.

Looking back, how do you analyze the “Bayrou phenomenon”?

The centrist leader relied on an electorate very critical of the right and the left, expressing in particular a rejection of the patronage of partisan systems. In fact, the politicization of the entire public service since 1974 and even more since 1981 is a French specificity that is strongly contested. In this, the success of François Bayrou can be interpreted as the search for a new political order composed of a renewed elite without concessions to the networks of power.

Is there not a contradiction between the desire expressed by part of the electorate for a renewal of institutional practices and the demand for a strong state?

Jacques Chirac has finished liquidating the Gaullist heritage - remaining in power despite the cohabitation or despite the denials of the electorate after having made a personal commitment. From this point of view, there is a real expectation concerning the Gaullian practice of the institutions and in particular the political responsibility of the Head of State. Nicolas Sarkozy, who personalized his campaign and gave the image of the strong state, will suddenly carry on his shoulders an extremely heavy weight: he gave the impression that he was capable of absorbing all the contradictions of the electorate, from the center to the far right, but that could backfire on him in the practice of power, especially since he did not commit to changing the institutions much. What response, then, to bring to the equally strong demand for popular representation? Since 1848, France has oscillated between, on the one hand, the bourgeois institutional "moral order" and, on the other, the politics of riot. This is where true bipolarization takes place and it cannot be part of this peaceful democracy that we are describing today.

What can rekindle the streak of contestation?

Unquestionably the issue of the public sector and state reform. The reduction in the number of civil servants, the question of minimum service, the abolition of special regimes, all associated with the question of Europe. The French are very attached to the public service and whatever one says about it they are not in majority favorable to the reduction in the number of civil servants.

INTERVIEW BY CARINE FOUTEAU AND VALÉRIE DE SENNEVILLE

Luc Rouban has just co-edited with Pascal Perrineau a book on "Politics in France and in Europe", at the Editions des Presses of the National Foundation for Political Science.


Source: http://www.lesechos.fr/info/france/4573 ... r=RSS-2000
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by Exceed » 09/05/07, 19:17

: Shock:

It is not good Christophe to deviate from the rule ..... there are some who will believe that we are really anti-sarko when it is not a problem for anyone .... well, a little also !
What is revolting is that he talks about work ... let's work together ... etc ... when too few people know that we have to limit our production ... stop talking about growth as if it was compulsory ... personally, I don't work anymore and I can guarantee you that I don't miss working in the factory ... too bad or so much the better if my boss produces less ... the truth is the one you want us to believe, that, almost everyone suspects it! It is good to remember that the president is the elected of the citizens, that he is the head of the state, the state is financed by the money of the citizens therefore normally, starting from this principle, since it is we who finance the state, there is no reason that a manager of this rank should not be accountable as the state should do for each money spent ... but this is not the case! What is valid for one, is not valid for another ... therefore, there is no equality! So people no longer trust but still go to the polls because they are fed up !!!! Quite simply. And if this new president governs us without respecting his commitments ... that will not change anything except that people still lose a lot of things, confidence, gains, etc. ... but we will return to the polls in 5 years saying that this time, it will be good!
Change will actually be possible the day those who vote change! That is to say that in the second round, there will no longer be the right, the left, or the center, but a real humanist econologist ...
Work is health !!! It's weird, me, the doctor, he told me to stay at home to protect my health ... like what, there are always two weights, two measures ... but we would also have been lied about it ... maybe it's 2 weights, 8 measures ???

Exceed exceeded ... : Mrgreen:
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by toto65 » 09/05/07, 20:38

I haven't commented on the protagonists of the campaign so far, and it will be the only one I would do.
I agree that we must "calm things down" on the forum.
Nevertheless this article (why anti-sarko?) On the French vote and very good.
In addition, the campaign was built on pretense. It has been more publicized than ever with potentially negative effects

I invite you to read the consequences of a presidential manda which would not respect these promises, on the blog of jacques Attali.
Sorry, we have to search the archives. (comments from March or April?) because I don't know where it is.
http://blogs.lexpress.fr/attali/2007/05/de_retour.html
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by elephant » 09/05/07, 21:37

well, since you open breaches I rush into it.

I have been traveling a lot in France since 1960, I really like French people and France, but I find that they change .... bad for my taste.
I give you some thoughts, that I pray to all our French friends
to take for what they are: impressions, nothing more!

I have known them rebellious, casual

I sometimes find them more strict than the Germans!
with the crab basket effect: the base, the population demands reforms, a better standard of living, but as soon as someone breaks the law (they hate) Houlà! Sometimes worse than the Dutch for a paper thrown on the street.

the French state is far too powerful: the ENA is certainly pure in something there: the remedies are slow, even non-existent, pleading against the state is a nightmare, the state has all the rights and right away. Your army makes us laugh: aristocratic, but not more effective than the others, your officers have vocabulary, but apart from that ...

French power has managed to strengthen itself: normal: they all come from Henri IV and Louis the Great who prepared them for the grandes écoles: from childhood they were able to organize, especially since they live in Neuilly ...

the French state f .. of its citizens: in some respects, you have fewer rights than other Europeans: no right to choose your school, forced to go abroad (ie in Belgium) to do the studies of your choice, etc.)
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by Targol » 09/05/07, 22:15

elephant wrote:I have been traveling a lot in France since 1960, I really like French people and France, but I find that they change .... bad for my taste.
I give you some thoughts, that I pray to all our French friends
to take for what they are: impressions, nothing more!


French native (moldy, it goes without saying : Lol: ), I don't feel the least bit attacked by these lines since I share the opinions they contain.
The French were blown away by a candidate who had stuck a label "Seen on TV" on the front.
They believed in nice words like "I would be the president of all French people" but, behind, there is a man who pays for a vacation that barely 1% of French people can hope for.

As for the ENA, the angry young people from the suburbs had better burn this school rather than their neighbour's car, as bad as they did: that would certainly have more impact.

I believe that France is today paying for the inability of the moderate left to learn from its mistakes.
After the Baffe of 2002, nothing has changed among the socialists, after the no to the referendum of 2005, they have continued the same. They pay - and so do we - for their inability to put their personal ambition behind the interest of their party. At the UMP, despite each other's ambitions, ALL of them sided behind Sarko. At PS, at best, they pretended to support Ségo, at worst, they shot him in the legs.

If you have a site to do at home, between an entrepreneur whose ways you do not like but whose all employees speak with one voice and another, perhaps more sympathetic, but which each employee says opposite of the other, who do you choose?

The French have chosen. I think that in a few months, a certain number will fall back on earth and that their fall will be severe. For the others, we did what we could. It was not enough to compensate for the inability of the "soft" left to question itself.
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change these politicians




by timtim » 09/05/07, 22:51

If I understood correctly, you all respond to the same idea, even if your political ideas quickly re-emerge.

My opinion is different, our politicians are governed by a way and a structure that dates from the XNUMXth century (or almost). The right or the left I don't care, or not in the current way.

I agree, the state owes us accounts.

But we cannot ignore the fact that we are part of the WORLD.
We cannot forget the economy and the international ecology, therefore the 'right', if I can call it that must serve as an international relation, it is our commercial, 'aggressive' in front of our competitors. It must defend us and protect our jobs and our achievements.
On the other hand, the 'left' must be there to protect us from societies. What do you want a town or village mayor to do when faced with a multinational of several thousand employees (I'll let you create your own examples).
Personally, I laugh when I see the multinationals fleeing abroad, you have chosen job security over a company of 20 people. You reap what you sow.
Let companies take on too much power in front of us, citizens, the danger is there. Especially with politicians who do not protect us and let our knowledge be saved abroad.

To return to ecology, which politician will have the guts to admit that the pollution we produce does not come from our way of life but from our global demographic development (X 6 in 200 years). Nobody will dare to take the decision to limit births, because we have grown too quickly compare to our capacities of raw materials and elimination of our pollutants.

I recap:
- The 'right' for exterior development,
- the 'left' to defend the citizen against the 'Big',
- limit births as long as we do not solve our problems of production of raw materials and recycling.


Ah !!!!! It feels good to let go a little.

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by ThierrySan » 10/05/07, 11:26

Thank you Christophe for having sinned this very good analysis of Luc ROUBAN.

I think that the intervention of a person of this ilk during the televised debates or the presidential results would have served more than the words of the politicians who look at the navel!

I have nothing else to add ... (for once, : Mrgreen: : Wink: )
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by SixK » 10/05/07, 12:00

Limit births in France! ???
Take a good look at the demographic curves.
The French population is aging, 2007 will be a year with significant retirements.
In a few years, it will be important departures from the cemetery :|
Anyway, I'm not sure this idea is good ...

The problem is even more accentuated in neighboring countries where the average number of children is around 1,5 per couple ... (against 2,1 in France I think)

The reasons for the defeat of the left in this election, in addition to a candidate who made a bad communication campaign. (comm to dad it's over !!! we look like stand up!)
The left has been nonexistent for 5 years!
They just had a burst of pride the night of the defeat, or they remembered that they had a role of opposition !!
Except that the evening of the defeat they would have done better to close it! It was before we had to wake up !!!!

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by timtim » 10/05/07, 12:19

@sixK

Your answer corresponds to a disappointment in the elections, not to an econologist.

You may well remake 2 million more little ones to replace your old ones, if you run out of oil and you cannot recycle your consumer products, it will not be your 2 million mouths to feed in + that will solve your ecological problems.

I recall a base of nature:
The older a Living Being lives, the more it must distribute its births over the course of its life.
However, the prolongation of life means that we mix our generations more, before it was difficult to know your grandparents, now our children know their great grandparents, therefore creating overcrowding without having more children.
So if we want to live older and older, have the pleasure of knowing our great grandparents, we must have fewer children.

You know how to make children allows politicians and big industrialists to hide more things from you in the mass effect.

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by SixK » 10/05/07, 13:57

In this thread, we are not talking about an ecological problem.

I am one of those who think that life does not end with the end of oil.

The French population will continue to increase, in 2005 there were 60 million French, in 2050 we should be around 70 million according to projections. That said, the population could very well stabilize by then, depending on the various hazards that our country will encounter.

Again the country is aging.
And in an "industrialized" country the birth rate tends to fall. I thought we were at 2,1 in France, I just saw that we are rather at 1,9 ...
What allows France not to have a population decline is the migratory balance.

I think we are wasting a lot of resources and that France will do very well if it can stop wasting, even with 10 million mouths to feed.

I am not disappointed in the elections, I consider myself Apolitical (apolitical, it also means non-environmentalist for me, well not environmentalist in the sense that we are offered policies in any case). However, I am worried about the future of our rights and freedoms.
In terms of wasting less, I do not think that a diet that offers everyone a model for their mouths will allow them to waste less.
As a result, I was disappointed that I couldn't have weighed the scales for the other camp! But ultimately it may be better like that! we will take stock in 5 years (maybe well before!) :)

To come back to the original subject, I also think that Sarkozy is likely to struggle well during these 5 years! :) Perhaps even more if he again obtains an absolute majority in the legislative elections ...
The problem with his mandate will not be ecology.
But rather all the problems related to the monstrous debt that we have. And since this does not seem to be his number one problem, I wish him good luck !!! :) I hope he enjoyed his vacation :)

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