Very rigorous winters

[claude07]

Hello everyone,
Have some people heard that winter is going to be really harsh, unheard of for 50 years, winter 56?

And that there would have been an increase in the abnormal thickness of the ice sheet in Greenland or from below?

I found some articles http://www.migrosmagazine.ch/index.cfm?id=10847


Great Britain: Experts say the coming freezing winter could claim thousands of lives:
http://www.bethel-fr.com/afficher_info.php?id=15300.89

[Other]

Hello,
I don't know what your experts are based on, but I don't live very far from the far north, and it's the first year that I hide my roses in the straw so late in the year on November 15, habit at this time of year it freezes since a jolt, we barely have -8 -10 at night and +4 during the day.
For us it is (tiguidou) it continues like that it will not be hard to heat.
Some year in early November there was 20cm of snow
rivers and lakes were frozen, solid in mid December
and now it happens in mid January.
Not very good for European tourists who want to enjoy the snow, the cold and who come in December for the holidays are disappointed, not enough snow, the ice not thick enough,
The big tourist boom (skidou, dog sledding, skiing)
It's late February and early March, it's where I meet your fellow citizens the most.
It must be understood that later the ice is put on the lakes the more it occassione evaporation therefore the loss of water, less water. Nature is well done, it has to freeze and everything needs to be regularized, the large amount of water available is the accumulation of snow in winter and the low evaporation as well as the low penetration into the frozen ground.
the ice on the lakes, it (holds) only at the end of April and the beginning of May further north.
So a warming risks to unbalance this beautiful system.

Andre

[The Passing]

Hello everyone,
Have some people heard that winter is really going to be rigreedy, never seen in 50 years, a winter of 56?

[...]

Hhhmmm ... we say rather: winter vigreedy right? Come on, a little rigor;)

If not to return to the subject, we can already see that global warming (I would rather say climate disturbance) tends to amplify the force of phenomena, so why not a terrible winter?

[Christophe]

Am not a meteorologist but I know that water has a role of thermal regulator: the presence of large body of water smooths the temperatures (as much upwards as downwards). Everyone knows the difference between continental and oceanic climate for this reason.

However this summer it was more or less drought in France: the rivers, river, water point and water tables are therefore quite low for this reason the local temperature of certain region could be lower than normal ...

But I think that other factors ... notably the decline of the Gulf Stream may already have started which would confirm pkoi André finds that it is warmer in Quebec.
Indeed; the gulf stream is a huge heat pump which has a power equivalent to several thousands of nucelar power plants ... 1% of "fall" and it is billions of kWh natural more for the North American continent and less for the Europe...

This explains why there is snow in New York every year when New York is at the latitude of Madrid ....

https://www.econologie.com/articles.php?lng=fr&pg=1176

[zac]

Hello
The gulf (not golf) stream does not drop on the east side of the Atlantic, it has gone up enormously for 5 to 6 years and it is warmer than before. I check it on each conveyance; pelagic fish are higher and higher at the same time. On the west side it is less straightforward.
@+
zac

[Christophe]

Oops, for the little error ... It's fixed.

For the school of fish I do not know .... there is a counter example: that of the giant crabs. Introduced into the Barens Sea (therefore cold sea) by the Soviets to sell them to the Japanese who are very fond of them, they migrate a little more to the south each year. I believe they are currently in the south of England. This would be a consequence of the cooling of European seas and therefore of the lowering of the gulf stream.

[zac]

Hello
Completely agree with you, a great crab guru; but the crab moves less quickly than tuna or dolphin fish and I think that if it descends so low (the crab is a scavenger, so it needs sufficient territory ) is that given its reproductive capacity, it descends to obtain new territory.

It is very worrying because it will drive local crabs out of their ecological niche.
So I think the water temperature has very little influence on crustaceans. Error pass 100 ° they blush

The fish that I caught 15 years ago in December at Cape Verde I sinned when our dear prestige sank at Cape Finistère and I saw on December 2 Argonauts 100 thousand before Madeira; normally at this time of year they have not yet reached the azores.Finally is it normal that at the end of November a sailor goes to change sail at 2 am in the gascogne without taking the trouble to put on his raincoat or fleece !!! !
@+
zac

[Christophe]

It reminds me of the conveyance that I made in August 2003 ... when there was the heat wave ... The golf of Gascogne was oil ... It is however reputed to be agitated at this period of l year (August 15) ... Everything is linked in meteorology but nothing is simple ...

[Former Oceano]

The Gulf Stream has already slowed down (B. Hansen et al. Nature, 411, 927, 2001; S. Hakkinen and PB Rhines, Sciences, 304, 555, 2004).

The work of A. Ganopolski and S. Rahmstorf of the Potsdam climatology center has shown that a simplified ocean-atmosphere model can be disturbed by a variable flow of freshwater of limited amplitude in the North Atlantic, and with hysteresis ( inertia in response to change) low and large amplitudes of outlet temperatures! The operation is not at all linear.

When we see this animation of the Gulf Stream, we see the speed decrease and therefore the transported heat rises less high ...

Gulf Stream animation

By being slower, it delivers more energy over the tropical Atlantic, hence the more powerful hurricanes, and the very first in the East Atlantic ...

So it is very likely that we are going towards cold winters like in the Lower Dryas ...

[Christophe]

I get a short story from that I wrote in 2003 .... (present on the archives page: https://www.econologie.com/articles.php?lng=fr&pg=34 ) ... always topical ... without a doubt just replace heat wave with drought!

October 16th, 2003

Climate: After the heat wave of summer, will winter be milder? Maybe not !

This is what we could legitimately think after the heat records observed this summer and this mainly in France (an excess mortality of more than 15 deaths was recorded on the national territory).

Do we need such human tragedies for the populations and the public authorities to become aware of the planetary danger which awaits us and towards which we are rushing at 100 per hour?

Apparently yes.

Ahhh the planet is heating up, it's obvious we saw it this summer .... But we would like to remind that we have a very short memory. It was not this winter that the A10 motorway was blocked for tens of kilometers for two days "imprisoning" truly thousands of resigned motorists to sleep in their car.

The message that we want to get across is that the observation of the average temperature of the globe (and even of certain regions) is not significant of the climatic upheavals that our planet is just beginning. Thus certain geographic zones or annual periods will cool down under the greenhouse effect much more than they will warm up, this analysis we had done on our dossier The use of petroleum available here.

To return to this winter and the main reason for this news, here is our analysis.

There is a good chance that winter will be very cold. (of course we are not soothsayers, all that follows is obviously to be taken in the conditional)

Why?

Because quite simply the heat wave has resulted in an obvious drop in the supply of large rivers and groundwater.

Water is the best natural thermal regulator available to the earth. So, our grandmothers all know it: to prevent their shed from freezing in winters, it was enough to place a container of liquid water in the middle of the room. Thus, as long as the water was not completely frozen, the temperature could not drop below 0 ° C because of the level of change of state of the water.

Freezing this water therefore brought calories to the room since it pumped cold.

Well: it is exactly the same phenomenon that happens in nature on a much larger scale, of course. There is a good chance that the lack of precipitation this summer will cause a very harsh winter unless heavy precipitation takes place between now and the winter months (which is quite unlikely). .

Wait & See as they say ....

ps: for those interested in the subject, we strongly advise them to read: Planetary thermodynamics