Eric Dupont wrote:100% renewable is the scenario that will prevail. photovoltaics, wind power, storage. the government needs to study it because it calls into question what it has done in the past.
It will not be the government but the industrialists, at least in France. If we did not have the nuclear ball that nobody wants, EDF would have already been bought. Why?
- the renewable activity (EDF ENR) interests Total and many of its competitors
- the distribution activity (ENEDIS) interests Total because Total is strongly committed to the charging of electric cars. Total has understood that it is the end of oil for cars and that we will have to convert gasoline pumps into electric pumps. And for that, you have to wire the stations. It is easier when the low and medium voltage activity is in the same company. Total has just taken over the Belib and Autolib concessions.
- and then distributing gasoline or electricity, it's the same job
- the hydroelectric part will be sold without problems
- gas power stations interest Engie
- the sale to individuals / business part will be more problematic because Total has already bought Le Belge Lampiris
So when the separation of EDF into 2 part is going to be done (project named Hercules), a big energy company will buy the non-nuclear part, cut it in pieces and resell parts to others. This is exactly the Suez scenario.
This will suddenly release all the constraints that are slowing down the development of renewables. And it will also bring a lot of money to investments which are currently hampered because of EDF's high indebtedness. And if solar is cheaper than nuclear, well the new operators are going to invest heavily. It is industrial logic.
The state will find its account there by selling its shares to finance the expenses of the health crisis.
There will remain the nuclear ball which will be nationalized, financed by our taxes and which will end its life quietly in a structure of defection. This is essential to ensure nuclear safety until the end of the decommissioning of plants - say in 50 to 100 years.