Retirement ... at what age?

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Leo Maximus
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View Leo Maximus » 23/10/10, 16:59

dedeleco wrote:... the Chinese TGV, cars, etc ... without believing that we can prevent the Chinese from copying us very quickly (example, the German TGV which has become Chinese ....

The "Chinese TGV" is not a copy of the German ICE, the "Chinese TGV", the CHR2, is a licensed manufacture of the Japanese E2 Shinkansen from Kawasaki Heavy Industries:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRH2

The Shinkansen is not a copy of the French TGV either, it entered service in 1964, almost 20 years before our TGV. The basic principle of our TGV is exactly that of the Japanese Shinkansen: 25 kV alternative allowing to use a loco which pulls and another which pushes at each end of the train in a synchronous manner.

The Shinkansen are made of aluminum and have the considerable advantage of being wider than our TGV. That's why it sells.

The Shinkansen E2:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E2_Series_Shinkansen

Shinkansen has also been sold in Vietnam recently:

http://www.cap-vietnam.com/archive/actu ... eures.html
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sen-no-sen
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View sen-no-sen » 23/10/10, 19:16

Thanks for the links Leo Maximus.
In the last link you put, he mentions that Vietnam plans to build 4 nuclear reactors ... worrying.

nonoLeRobot wrote:
Speaking of untraceable but unrelated figures, the evolution of the number of police officers. We ask them more, each one notes more offenses, more media effect but a priori (based on the case of some cities where we have the figures) the number of police officers decreases regularly.


The "security" policy (and not the security policy) of the government is based on a reduction in the strength of the National Police, in favor of the development of the municipal police and private security companies.

Citizens pay for security, provided by the National Police / Gendarmerie Nationale through taxes.
With the development of Municipal Police, citizens pay twice, because the latter are funded by the municipalities.

To make it simple you pay twice for an equal or even less good service ...
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Obamot
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View Obamot » 23/10/10, 19:20

nonoLeRobot wrote:Yeah and there it is a more global bp (not or little linked to government). Besides, it fits extremely well with the theories of Jancovicy who says among other things that an increase in the price of oil corresponds to an increase in unemployment 3 years later.

http://www.manicore.com/documentation/p ... nomie.html

So visionary (first version in 2005) that it can be said that the sharp rise in the price of oil in 2007 heralds a sharp rise in unemployment in 2010. Keeps funny ...

Oil production growth graph and global growth:

Image


Fairly hallucinating Nono if we superimpose, indeed (I called myself towards the 1st Gulf War):

Image

... especially if we consider that until the middle of the 80s "the statistics services tended to hide dust under the carpet, to avoid being fired ...

Now, if the causes are exogenous, this government is really incompetent. Because changing the retirement age at each crisis will never solve the problem.
Last edited by Obamot the 23 / 10 / 10, 19: 30, 1 edited once.
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nonoLeRobot
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View nonoLeRobot » 23/10/10, 19:29

yeah but then there c reversed !!!

The curve you have set is world growth on the French deficit. It sticks really well, but then the greater the growth, the greater our deficit! ?
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Obamot
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View Obamot » 23/10/10, 19:41

There is no error, I just make a coincidence by graphic correlation. Besides, why would it be so wrong?

Business had never worked so well until the crash of 2008 and yet the deficit exploded at the same time! At the same time everyone was already tightening their belts, the boxes were apparently empty .. even though the economy was booming ... (Find the error).

It was during this period of high economic activity that the debt reached its peak, since after having been refloated, financial circles (and at their center restored private bankrupt banks up to several trillion € uros) these very skillful people have pointed out this deficit! Even when states should not have bailed out banks after negotiating their debts. What would not have been expensive paid, since suddenly hundreds of thousands of € uros ... compared to the thousands received !!!

Then the crisis came and we were hit again with empty funds ... The lengthening of the retirement age and tomorrow the reduction of other social benefits. As in my corner, unemployment insurance benefits that were reduced by a vote of the people ... must still do it!

Which means that nobody understands anything anymore! But the financial world is there to put us back on "the right path" : Mrgreen: with the blunt argument, that: "We could not erase the deficit, since that would open a wider door to the irresponsibility of certain States". In reality, it is the banks that don't give a damn about charity ... The sub-prime was "responsible economy" for them apparently ...

So not so wrong, because this correlation sheds light on exogenous causes!

We pay for wars and speculative operations created by others. Let us not forget either that the Pension Funds are managed by ... the banks, and that at the heart of the bailout plan in the states, there was the insurer AIG ...
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nonoLeRobot
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View nonoLeRobot » 23/10/10, 20:24

I am not convinced of logic, but you could look at oil prices 3 years before.

Image

The correlation seems much better to me.

79 - 84 high price 82 - 87 large deficits
Price peak in 90, deficit peak in 93
Lower prices in 98 lower deficit in 2001
Big increase in 2000, max deficit in 2003
2002-2003 decrease less deficit in 2005
Finally soaring prices in 2005-2006 ...
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Obamot
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View Obamot » 23/10/10, 22:46

it's going to ^^
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Christophe
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View Christophe » 24/10/10, 01:52

Me it does not suit me ... if the quotation of crude plays on the economy and deficits it is not the only one: there are many other parameters which come into play otherwise, pkoi between 85 and 98 there where the oil was low the deficit continued to climb? Interest yes ... but it's not just that ... if?

And then, I will still pass for a quibble but speaking in US $ 2000 in 2010, I find it hard to understand the logic ... in 99 the $ was worth 8 French francs ... huge so ...

When we do a calculation in constant currency it is with the most recent currency ...

For the longer term history see: https://www.econologie.com/le-vrai-prix- ... s-479.html

Image

But also: https://www.econologie.com/l-argent-du-p ... -3297.html

Image

See as well: https://www.econologie.com/forums/heures-de- ... t2786.html

Image
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nonoLeRobot
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View nonoLeRobot » 24/10/10, 02:43

In fact at the limit your graph with the hourly cost of oil sticks even better:

Image


I say at the limit because there is a big increase in the cost in 1997 which does not have repercussions, would have to see if it is world-wide or only French.
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Christophe
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View Christophe » 24/10/10, 10:44

Absolutely, it fits "far too strangely" to be a coincidence: there are just 2 exeptions 91, and 95 to 98 ... especially the 2nd is difficult to explain. The politicians would have done their job better at that time than the others? (government balladur not?)

In fact it finally makes sense: the public deficit is worsened by weaker growth and as growth, GDP and oil prices are clearly correlated. QED. Well done Nono! I think that deserves a subject, because there the information is lost in retirement: if you do not want to do it, I would do it.

I found an article which confirms this but in a more global way: crude oil prices and growth are linked:

https://www.econologie.com/croissance-pi ... -4090.html
Image

See also, the rest of the article on taxes: https://www.econologie.com/croissance-pi ... -4099.html

And yes if that will not change much in substance (our economies are far too addicted to oil), I think on the contrary that it is in times of crisis that reforms must be made so that it does not get worse no?

Well, we are talking too much about pensions there ...

We even have a subject GDP, energy and growth about these articles: https://www.econologie.com/forums/energie-pi ... t7865.html
maybe some copy / paste of these posts.
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