When data doesn't match theory

General scientific debates. Presentations of new technologies (not directly related to renewable energies or biofuels or other themes developed in other sub-sectors) forums).
User avatar
thibr
I posted 500 messages!
I posted 500 messages!
posts: 723
Registration: 07/01/18, 09:19
x 267

When data doesn't match theory




by thibr » 30/01/21, 19:29


What to do when my result does not correspond to my theory?
Reject the result? (Like Dr John)
Reject the theory? (Like Fat Tony)

Gamer Sophism vs Playful Sophism

This is what game theory has to contribute to critical thinking:
If it is already an ordeal to make a decision on such a simple situation, how can you have the audacity to claim to have a clear and definitive opinion on complex social issues?
2 x

ABC2019
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 12927
Registration: 29/12/19, 11:58
x 1006

Re: When data doesn't match theory




by ABC2019 » 30/01/21, 19:56

Interestingly, the author doesn't talk about Bayesian reassessment but that's what it is actually;).

Having an event (5 rolls in a row which gives 6) which has a different probability of occurring in two hypotheses:
A: the die is not loaded ---> 1/7000 probability of occurring
B: the die is loaded to always give 6 ----> probability 1 of occurring

fact that the hypothesis B must be reevaluated by a factor 7000 compared to A. 7000 is a lot but it depends on your initial estimate "the prior" on p (B) / p (A). In the example chosen, he took a prior of 1/1000, but suddenly the Bayesian revaluation factor transforms it into p (B) / p (A) = 7, i.e. 7 chances out of 8 that it is loaded and 1 chance in 8 that it is not loaded. Note that it depends on the prior which is quite subjective, this is the difficulty. If we are "much more confident" that the die is not loaded, for example we made it ourselves, say p (B) = 1 / 100, we can continue to play. If, on the contrary, we are wary from the start of the huckster like Tony (probability of 000/1 that he will be loaded for example), we will stop long before.

It is interesting to analyze the differences of opinion, including on this forum, based on prior and re-evaluations. For example, if you are sure that the pharmaceutical labs are lying to you and their results are faked, you will give much less importance to the results of a test than if you think the other way around. Any resemblance to real life situations would be pure coincidence : Mrgreen:
0 x
To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)

Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
eclectron
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 2922
Registration: 21/06/16, 15:22
x 395

Re: When data doesn't match theory




by eclectron » 30/01/21, 20:04

I pity... : roll:
Sorry, crossover, I pity you : Lol:
0 x
whatever.
We will try the 3 posts per day max
ABC2019
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 12927
Registration: 29/12/19, 11:58
x 1006

Re: When data doesn't match theory




by ABC2019 » 31/01/21, 08:06

if you don't understand these discussions, eclectron, it's because you're like M. Jourdain: you make Bayesian inferences without knowing it;).
1 x
To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)

Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
eclectron
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 2922
Registration: 21/06/16, 15:22
x 395

Re: When data doesn't match theory




by eclectron » 31/01/21, 09:20

I pity you, the author, you (and thibr no doubt?) Because to be interested in this is to show that you do not know how to see the simplicity of things with your own eyes, you need a decision-making aid in life, help which still does not reassure you and will never be able to do so.

In the poo you are and in the poo you will remain, as long as you refuse simplicity.
Simplicity goes through a clear, "impersonal" vision and leads to a non-choice, to evidence of what must be done.
Already the author expresses himself verbally in a way that lacks sobriety, which denotes a spirit "not simple".
So yes I pity you and I pity us for making us undergo in return the torments to which you are attached. : Wink:
0 x
whatever.
We will try the 3 posts per day max

ABC2019
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 12927
Registration: 29/12/19, 11:58
x 1006

Re: When data doesn't match theory




by ABC2019 » 31/01/21, 09:29

eclectron wrote:I pity you, the author, you (and thibr no doubt?) Because to be interested in this is to show that you do not know how to see the simplicity of things with your own eyes, you need a decision-making aid in life, help which still does not reassure you and will never be able to do so.

In the poo you are and in the poo you will remain, as long as you refuse simplicity.
Simplicity goes through a clear, "impersonal" vision and leads to a non-choice, to evidence of what must be done.

the "simplicity" and "the obvious" denote only a lack of reflection on what makes our knowledge and our beliefs; It is a weapon against doubt, and therefore, the best way to persist in error. Fundamentalists do not doubt.
0 x
To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)

Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
eclectron
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 2922
Registration: 21/06/16, 15:22
x 395

Re: When data doesn't match theory




by eclectron » 31/01/21, 09:44

ABC2019 wrote:the "simplicity" and "the obvious" denote only a lack of reflection on what makes our knowledge and our beliefs; It is a weapon against doubt, and therefore, the best way to persist in error. Fundamentalists do not doubt.

It denotes above all that you do not know what you are talking about and that you have, as very often a preconceived opinion on the subject (simplicity in this case), hence "your problems" and your taste for this kind of video .
What I can say is that you understand what you want to understand in my words, so I accept your answer. : Wink:
0 x
whatever.
We will try the 3 posts per day max
ABC2019
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 12927
Registration: 29/12/19, 11:58
x 1006

Re: When data doesn't match theory




by ABC2019 » 31/01/21, 09:47

eclectron wrote:
ABC2019 wrote:the "simplicity" and "the obvious" denote only a lack of reflection on what makes our knowledge and our beliefs; It is a weapon against doubt, and therefore, the best way to persist in error. Fundamentalists do not doubt.

It denotes above all that you do not know what you are talking about and that you have, as very often a preconceived opinion on the subject (simplicity in this case), hence "your problems" and your taste for this kind of video .

no once again I am not inventing anything, I see that fundamentalists do not question their beliefs, which is also why they are called "fundamentalists", right?
0 x
To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)

Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
eclectron
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 2922
Registration: 21/06/16, 15:22
x 395

Re: When data doesn't match theory




by eclectron » 31/01/21, 10:08

ABC2019 wrote:
eclectron wrote:
ABC2019 wrote:the "simplicity" and "the obvious" denote only a lack of reflection on what makes our knowledge and our beliefs; It is a weapon against doubt, and therefore, the best way to persist in error. Fundamentalists do not doubt.

It denotes above all that you do not know what you are talking about and that you have, as very often a preconceived opinion on the subject (simplicity in this case), hence "your problems" and your taste for this kind of video .

no once again I am not inventing anything, I see that fundamentalists do not question their beliefs, which is also why they are called "fundamentalists", right?

Didn't I say I accepted your answer? valid from your perspective.
0 x
whatever.
We will try the 3 posts per day max


Back to "Science and Technology"

Who is online ?

Users browsing this forum : No registered users and 20 guests