Bullshit and idiocy around the Coronavirus (actions, words, decisions ...)

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GuyGadebois
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Re: The CONS of Coronavirus




by GuyGadebois » 20/07/20, 12:57

Pr Yonathan Freund, emergency doctor at Pitié-Salpêtrière (compilation of Tweets 17/07/2020)
“It's hard to stay silent. When I see the alarmist delirium that invades the media and social networks, and which ignores any measure. Journalists who infantilize, those who want to punish poorly disciplined French people. So we're going to debunk a bit. My position is not reckless. I deliver an analysis that I hope is detailed and critical of the data. I remind you that if my hypothesis is contradicted by the figures, then we can act and it will not be too late.

The delirium of some specialists in nothing except on TV sets and in private consultation, having never seen a COVID patient, who tell us that the epidemic is resuming: nothing justifies these speeches. Apart from fear. For two months there have been arguments to doubt a second deadly wave and a resumption of the epidemic. The epidemiologists and company managers who sell models predicted 80 deaths when the confinement was lifted, even with barrier gestures. RAS.

There was no recovery anywhere. The events and behaviors that we loved to criticize (music festival, demonstrations etc.) did not cause any recovery. There is a circulation of the virus. There are new cases. But, and this is the central point, still the same, to this day, there are every day, every week, fewer and fewer new cases hospitalized or in intensive care. And everywhere (except Guyanne). So of course, we are reaching a level so low that we are bound to see increases. When you are at the bottom, it can only increase. The virus is not dead, I remind you. But is it necessary to say that we have a signal of recovery when we go from 1 to 3 per week? We will come to a background noise. In any case in the regions already badly affected.

The R is at 2 and a few in Brittany. Alert! But no. There were just clusters and systematic screening. So cases. A (we have already said) does not make any sense when the epidemic is at a standstill, apart from clusters. Any sense. Across Brittany, we went from 6 hospitalizations last week to 8. Is it an explosion? Be serious. Of course there will be regions every week that will see an increase in cases. We start from so low. In Mayenne red alert? Almost zero hospitalizations. Zero.

The decision to impose the wearing of the mark is very difficult to understand. Why did you take this decision when all the indicators are green? What is the plan ? For how long ? Is it really necessary to change society for an indefinite period without knowing if it is necessary, and especially without knowing what will bring back the clock? Many of us agree: in heavily affected areas, immunity is important. Probably sufficient, immunity is not only visible on serology. There is no recovery anywhere in the world where the epidemic has hit hard. Any.

Why this decision to wear a compulsory mask? To protect vulnerable people? But vulnerable people protect themselves. They can strictly respect distancing and other measures. On the other hand, we must ask the question: do we want to completely stop the circulation of the virus? I think it is illusory. Or I hope you have some time in front of you. The solution of letting it circulate while controlling it is probably the right one. Some say “to protect vulnerable people, protect yourself”. It may be wrong. To protect vulnerable people, protect LES, but if you are sick and then immune, you will protect them for life. Be careful, I am not saying that the virus should be spread everywhere. But wanting to stop its distribution at all costs, everywhere, is illusory and not necessarily a good calculation in the long term.

There is no other coherent plan than to continue the measures of distancing without reinforcing them, being able to relax according to the evolution, and to monitor the real indicators (not the calls to SOS doctor which increase at the beginning of the holidays and face to ambient alarmism). There is an element of uncertainty in this disease. Everyone agrees on this. But why take it systematically on the worst possible scenario? Why such a symbiosis of the media, "experts" etc, when it is uncertain? It is not logical."

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Re: The CONS of Coronavirus




by GuyGadebois » 20/07/20, 13:04

We did let people die. Also in the UK:
(translated)
Covid-19: "The staggering number" of additional deaths in the community is not explained by covid-19

Only a third of the excess deaths seen in the community in England and Wales can be explained by covid-19, new data has shown.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) 1, which covers deaths in hospitals, nursing homes, private homes, hospices and elsewhere, shows that 6035 people have died from suspected infection or confirmed to covid-19 in England and Wales week ending May 1, 2020 (where deaths were recorded through May 9), a decrease of 2202 from the previous week.

Although the number of deaths in care homes has fallen for the second week in a row, more covid-related deaths are reported in care homes than in hospitals and are declining more slowly.

However, David Spiegelhalter, president of the Winton Center for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University, said covid-19 did not explain the high number of deaths occurring in the community.

At a briefing hosted by the Science Media Center on May 12, he explained that over the past five weeks, nursing homes and other community settings have faced a "tremendous burden" 30 more deaths than one would normally expect, as patients were moved out of hospitals which anticipated high demand for beds.

Of those 30, only 000 had covid-10 specified on the death certificate. While Spiegelhalter acknowledged that some of these “excessive deaths” could be the result of underdiagnosis, “the huge number of additional unexplained deaths in homes and nursing homes is extraordinary. When we look back. . . this increase in additional non-covid deaths outside of hospital is something that I hope will receive very serious attention.

He added that many of the deaths would be in people "who might well have lived longer if they had made it to hospital".
Underlying causes

David Leon, professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, agreed. “Some of these deaths may not have happened if people had gone to the hospital,” he said. “How much is not clear. This problem requires urgent attention and measures must be taken to ensure that those who would benefit from hospital treatment and care for other conditions can obtain it. "

Jason Oke, senior statistician at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences at the University of Oxford, also attended the meeting, who explained that equivalent data on excessive deaths in Scotland 2 was categorized by underlying cause of death, including dementia. as circulatory, cancerous and respiratory causes. In the first week after the lockdown, there was a spike in death from all causes, but "we now have a return to normal for everyone except dementia," he explained. He called on the ONS to report additional deaths in the same way.

Responding to the latest figures, Jennifer Dixon, executive director of the Health Foundation think tank, said: “Today's data shows that the fight against the coronavirus pandemic in social services has been late and inadequate, and highlighted significant weaknesses in the social care system. due to decades of neglect and lack of reform. Covid-19 ultimately amplified the human impact of decades of sector underfunding and political neglect. "

In total, England and Wales recorded 34978 deaths linked to covid-19 from December 28, 2019 to May 9 of this year. More than 22 deaths have occurred in hospitals and 600 in nursing homes.

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... /bmj.m1931
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Re: The CONS of Coronavirus




by GuyGadebois » 20/07/20, 13:10

Containment, isolation killed.
(Translated)
Social Relations and Risk of Mortality: A Meta-Analytical Review
Abstract
Context
The quality and quantity of individuals' social relationships are related not only to mental health but also to morbidity and mortality.

Objectives
This meta-analysis was conducted to determine the extent to which social relationships influence the risk of mortality, which aspects of social relationships are the most predictive, and which factors may moderate the risk.

Data extraction
Data were extracted on several characteristics of the participants, including cause of death, baseline health, and pre-existing health conditions, as well as study characteristics, including length of follow-up and type evaluation of social relations.

Results
In 148 studies (308 participants), the weighted mean random effects size was OR = 849 (1,50% CI 95 to 1,42), indicating a 1,59% increased probability of survival for participants with stronger social relationships. This finding remained consistent across age, sex, baseline health, cause of death, and period of follow-up. Significant differences were found between the types of social measures assessed (p <50); the association was strongest for complex measures of social integration (OR = 0,001; 1,91% CI 95 to 1,63) and weakest for binary indicators of residential status (living alone or with others) (OR = 2,23; 1,19% CI 95 to 0,99).

conclusions
The influence of social relationships on the risk of mortality is comparable to well-established risk factors for mortality.

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... ed.1000316
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Re: The CONS of Coronavirus




by Obamot » 20/07/20, 13:35

I have always said and written from the start that:
the confinement that put the economy on “stand by” would claim more victims than covid-19 itself.

While it would have been enough to be satisfied with preserving the elderly and those at risk ...
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Re: The CONS of Coronavirus




by GuyGadebois » 20/07/20, 13:55

French Government: Criminal. Order of Physicians: Criminal.
INCAPABLES killed


Covid-19: a French defeat

Before the establishment of a commission of inquiry into the covid-19 crisis, the National Assembly launched a fact-finding mission. In the report of this mission, published on June 3, is one of the keys to understanding the poor results of France vis-à-vis covid-19: the disarmament of medicine.

"There was a man blind from birth
who had under him several blind apprentices like him.
Their occupation was to compose colors for painters ”
Jonathan Swift, Gulliver's Voyages


................

For France, the MG France doctors' union estimated the number of deaths at home (which does not take into account the official statistics) at 9 (online: https://www.mgfrance.org/publication/in ... -des-infos).

................

Primary care prohibited?

March 14, the High Council of Public Health (HCSP) recommends that general practitioners only use paracetamol to the exclusion of any other medication. This is the first time in our history that doctors have been prescribed… not to prescribe.
On the same day, from its first opinion, the scientific council, responsible for enlightening the President of the Republic, justified the decision to close schools and contain the population, by the statement "in the absence of treatment and vaccine '

March 23, the same scientific council makes the following recommendations to general practitioners: "The detection and management of patients with COVID-19 must be done as much as possible by avoiding the arrival of these patients in the consulting room (...) When a consultation in the office is considered essential by the general practitioner, it will be done at dedicated times to avoid contact with other uninfected patients, will be carried out with the necessary protective equipment, and will be followed by appropriate disinfection measures. The transport of patients to the practice and their return home must be done in a secure manner. If the doctor visits the patient's home, the same recommendations apply. ”Remember that at the time, protective equipment (masks, gloves, over-gowns, etc.) was totally lacking and that compared to the price of the consultation, these recommendations seem very difficult to practice.

March 25, a decree of the Ministry of Health reserves the prescription of quinine derivatives for hospitals. Liberal doctors are no longer authorized to prescribe it then, on March 26, the ANSM (National Medicines Safety Agency) prohibited pharmacists from dispensing these medicines except in the case of certain pathologies (HIV, lupus, rheumatoid arthritis) .

March 27, the scientific council of the National College of Teaching General Practitioners (CENG) recommended to general practitioners not to prescribe quinine derivatives for the management of covid-199. He added that "this prescription would be contrary to medical ethics". This formula has a precise practical scope: any doctor who violates the ethics of his profession can be suspended immediately by the Council of the Order. On the same day, the National Council of the Order of Physicians took over these injunctions, giving them in a way the force of law.

.............

Some doctors have persisted in wanting to treat and treat their patients, using the available pharmacopoeia, and not just paracetamol, which, moreover, is not without its side effects. So, on April 23, the Council of the Order became more threatening. He recalled the prohibition of any attempt at treatment resembling an experiment - since, in his opinion, the disease was new and without an accepted treatment. Consequently, any treatment had to obey a cumbersome and complex procedure (declaration to the ANSM) and, in fact, doomed to failure in the case of liberal doctors. This could only complete the deprivation of doctors of any means in the face of a rapidly growing epidemic.

Some still persisting, in particular by resorting to antibiotics to fight the disease, the HCSP, following the recommendations of the ANSM and the Directorate General of Health, then advised against the use of these drugs. At the same time, early June, the departmental orders of doctors announced that they would summon without delay, for an explanation, the rare doctors who had not respected or still would not respect these "recommendations".

...............

Dramatic consequences


While France devotes 12% of its national income to health, for the first time in contemporary history, hundreds of thousands of people with social security have been refused a meeting with a doctor, listening and care they were entitled to.
In addition to the psychological tragedy felt by these people abandoned to their fate, the consequences in terms of public health are obvious and dramatic.
The patient remained "in circulation" instead of being sidelined, contrary to all recommendations and medical practice in the face of epidemics.
He infected his relatives, traders and their customers, when he went shopping. If he was one of the “requisitioned” workers for lack of a work stoppage, he spread the virus in the metro, the bus, among his work colleagues, etc. If he was a caregiver or service staff in a hospital or an EPHAD, he spread the disease among people at risk who should have been protected. Thus, these are developed "situations of superpropagation".

...............

This perspective is not theoretical. After having for a long time refused to systematically test the nursing staff, it had to be recognized that many had contracted the disease: on May 14, a partial census indicated that more than 65 health professionals and the "medico-social" sector had a symptomatic form of the disease which led to them testing positive800. 14% of them worked in EHPAD. Nurses were the most affected. As these personnel were not sidelined before exhibiting serious symptoms (since they could not see their GPs for a sick leave), they each infected several "people at risk". This explains the appalling mortality in the EPHADs.

...............

conclusions

The covid-19 epidemic is not exceptional, contrary to what the authorities and the media have repeatedly said throughout the crisis. Mortality is between the 9th and 13th place in French health history for the past 70 years. As for the "new" viruses, for nearly two centuries, our societies have often been confronted with them and they have overcome these epidemics without locking up their citizens, undermining public freedoms or ruining the country.

...............

In 2015, no one thought of declaring: “unknown virus: everyone in the shelters”. Schools, businesses, theaters and restaurants have remained open. However, the final excess mortality was equivalent to that which looms with covid-19 ... The spread of the virus was limited thanks to routine precautions in the hospital sector and especially thanks to the “confinement” of patients at home until so that they are no longer contagious. During this time, cultural, social and economic life continued and civil and public liberties were preserved. These patients agreed to remain "confined" to their homes because they trusted their doctor and were convinced that they were being treated properly. In this difficult balance between the fight against the epidemic, respect for individual freedoms and the necessities of collective life, the "family doctor" played the main role, quite effectively because he was invested with confidence. patients if not that of health authorities and public authorities.

This fragile balance was upset in 2020. Public authorities seized on the matter and they openly declared that covid-19 was too serious a thing to let city doctors deal with. They were bombarded with inapplicable directives and then they were sidelined by threatening them with the most serious penalties if they persisted in wanting to treat.

In his speech of March 17, 2020, the President of the Republic used the word “war” several times. With his "scientific" staff and the health authorities, no doubt believing he was doing good, he disarmed the first line of defense, allowed the enemy to spread freely among the French population and seize strategic places where he was. should never have entered.

This debacle also questions a very centralized health organization, the contempt of the public authorities for general practitioners, the lack of confidence of the State in civil society but also the economic model of the pharmaceutical industry, whose existence depends on replacement. rapidity of existing drugs with new products17. For a whole series of reasons - employment but also national prestige - governments are obviously sensitive to the demands and discoveries of this industry. Older drugs, despite their effectiveness, are not very profitable for their manufacturers since they have fallen into the public domain. They are therefore regularly replaced or even withdrawn from the market. This can disarm doctors when the effectiveness of new drugs remains questionable, not to mention the cost which is multiplied for Social Security, mutuals and patients.

Last but not least, this policy, in addition to not avoiding significant excess mortality, engendered democratic regression - favoring for several weeks a society of surveillance and punishment18. - then the most serious economic crisis since the 1930s and the Second World War19. The number of unemployed is increasing dramatically while the deficit of Social Security - and more broadly of the welfare state - has become abysmal, as never before.

During his third trip, Gulliver discovered Balnibarbes, a country ruled according to the precepts of a bloated and richly endowed academy. Yet under this "enlightened" government, the country is poor and miserable because the academy's recommendations are always absurd, the opposite of logic and experience. Suddenly, the fields are sterile, the houses dilapidated, the sanitary conditions are deplorable, nothing works. Faced with covid-19, would France have looked like Balnibarbes?



Dominique Andolfatto, professor of political science, Credespo, University of Bourgogne Franche-Comté (Dominique.Andolfatto@u-bourgogne.fr)

Dominique Labbé, associate researcher in political science, Pacte-CNRS, University of Grenoble-Alpes (dominique.labbe@umrpacte.fr)

https://www.revuepolitique.fr/covid-19- ... fn-13589-6
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Re: The CONS of Coronavirus




by Macro » 20/07/20, 14:28

Obamot wrote:I have always said and written from the start that:
the confinement that put the economy on “stand by” would claim more victims than covid-19 itself.

While it would have been enough to be satisfied with preserving the elderly and those at risk ...


Or rather ... Pay Mother Nature her donation made up of seniors and fragile people ....
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Re: The CONS of Coronavirus




by Christophe » 20/07/20, 14:54

Macro wrote:Pay Mother Nature her donation made up of seniors and fragile people ....


Like that?

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Re: The CONS of Coronavirus




by Obamot » 20/07/20, 15:06

Macro wrote:
Obamot wrote:I have always said and written from the start that:
the confinement that put the economy on “stand by” would claim more victims than covid-19 itself.

While it would have been enough to be satisfied with preserving the elderly and those at risk ...


Or rather ... Pay Mother Nature her donation made up of seniors and fragile people ....


This is another question, of an ethical order, that is raised, that of eugenics and / or “natural selection” (we do not all have the same chances at the start, as for the “arrival” of this selection may not be that “natural” ...?)

8A3ACA8E-A2A7-4E3D-9E96-3E65EB2E940F.jpeg
8A3ACA8E-A2A7-4E3D-9E96-3E65EB2E940F.jpeg (248.35 Kio) Consulté 1766 fois



... in the field of food the inequality of “chances” is even worse, people have been led to believe for decades that the distribution circuits were “safe” and ultra “controlled” ... It's true up to a point but defined VULGARILY and over the very short term. It is limited to “security of supply”, “availability” (access, opening hours, and during public holidays), expiry dates, the cleanliness of the stalls, the (light) control of the supply chains. , and all that is of the order of the big cavalry (even though products that can be described as toxic in the long term, are freely sold everywhere ...! And that we do not know not too much what is on our plates ...)
Last edited by Obamot the 20 / 07 / 20, 15: 20, 1 edited once.
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Re: The CONS of Coronavirus




by Christophe » 20/07/20, 15:18

Uh source? For which country? Excess mortality from Covid or what? What is the monetary unit? French francs? : Shock: : Shock: : Shock:

Because the "zero" (100%) is around 5000 € ...

It is not the majority of French people who earn more than 5000 € ... moreover, what is the median and average salary in France in 2020?

So that doesn't mean much.
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Re: The CONS of Coronavirus




by Obamot » 20/07/20, 15:47

I was also surprised, and we must not confuse life expectancy and risk of mortality!

Here is the table (France) for “life expectancy” relative to income:
We find the same inverted curve.
The scale is the age, we can see it more clearly.

54FD3F25-37FB-4F7F-908C-E9250A295634.jpeg
54FD3F25-37FB-4F7F-908C-E9250A295634.jpeg (282.85 Kio) Consulté 1748 fois


For the table of my previous post, the risk of mortality would decrease by 80% thanks to a better income, according to them!
Source: Caritas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caritas_Internationalis and also:

Here: https://www.vie-publique.fr/en-bref/198 ... de-revenus

Here: https://www.clesdusocial.com/l-esperanc ... es-revenus

Here: https://www.santelog.com/actualites/les ... de-revenus



You could extrapolate for any country by varying the income scales and percentages, I bet that wouldn't change much in the spirit of the theory!

I took this table which is just indicative, it goes to extreme poverty where people are starving (not on the graph)
Especially the children, collateral victims of covid-19 ... Suddenly Marco's criteria are reversed:

COVID19: DISASTERIOUS CONSEQUENCES ON 600 MILLION CHILDREN IN SOUTH ASIA

https://www.unicef.fr/article/covid19-c ... sie-du-sud

COVID-19: 51 ADDITIONAL CHILDREN UNDER FIVE YEARS OF AGE COULD DIE IN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA BY THE END OF 000

https://www.unicef.fr/article/covid-19- ... yen-orient
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